Kentucky Derby 149 Final Thoughts

Final view of the Derby and some undercard selections

The work is done, for better of for worse.

It’s Derby Day 2023.

Hopefully better than Oaks Day 2023

Current LIVE Derby Odds

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/kentucky-derby-live-odds

***Update 940AM - Favorite Forte has been scratched. Thoughts on that below after picks. ***

A theme of the write-ups for these prep races every Friday and Saturday here at MutStack - I’ve been consistent with the idea that this is not a GREAT group of three-year-olds. There are some good horses in this group for sure. But greatness?

That was Forte (#15) at the end of his championship campaign last fall.

We haven’t really seen that horse in 2023.

And I’m not thrilled with the idea of finding out if today is the day we see that greatness. In a field of 19. In front of a huge crowd. And at a short price.

In front of a huge crowd. Forte had issues before he went and won the Florida Derby. He got “washy” in the lead up the race before eventually finding the will to wear down Mage late. Today it’s a much bigger crowd and a much longer wait/walk up for these horses. How will he handle it? How much will it take out of him?

There’s also the issue of the awkward step he took in his gallop Thursday morning. His trainer Todd Pletcher called it a stumble and did not seem concerned Friday.

“I was very happy with the way he trained today,” Pletcher told reporters outside his Churchill Downs barn. “Everything’s on course at the moment.”

“As you could see this morning, (Forte) was out there changing leads at every spot beautifully and getting over the ground.”

He said that was evidence Forte was not adversely affected by that misstep the day before.

“That was a one-off,” he said. “I don’t know what that was about, to be honest.”

Given all of this it’s hard to say the favorite is the play. But will he be the favorite?

Angel of Empire (#14) is the lowest price of the Oaks/Double will-pays. That might mean people LOVE the horse tomorrow … heard lots of podcast guests pushing him as their pick earlier in the week. It might also be the byproduct of people betting 14-14 Oaks Derby Doubles - which are alive after Pretty Mischievous took down the Oaks at 10-1. Either way we’re not getting 8-1.

Angel of Empire has won two straight. And in winning those races has shown an ability to rate off speed and finish strongly. Very strongly based on the number. He’s improved his Beyer speed figure in five straight dirt races.

His trainer SuperTrainer Brad Cox won a bunch of races on Friday because Brad Cox wins everything. His jockey Flavian Prat has had good success in the Derby. Five mounts - a win, a second and two thirds. If there is a pace to run at - I expect Angel of Empire to be right there in the final furlong.

The Pace - with all the scratches this week Cyclone Mischief (#21) gets into the race. He only has one chance and that is to go. Along with Verifying (2), Confidence Game (4), Reincarnate (7), Jace’s Road (12), Derma Sotogake (17)…I see some pace early here. More than a lot of people seem too.

And based on the track Friday - the jocks will want to be forward. The track played kindly to speed.

Confidence Game, Reincarnate, Jace’s Road, Raise Cain (#16), King Russell (#23) - horses who will not be on my tickets at all.

Verifying, Hit Show (#10), Kingsbarn (#6), Sun Thunder (#13), Rocket Can (#18), Cyclone Mischief and Mandarin Hero (#22) are all horses I’ll use somewhere in tris and supers. Mandarin Hero has some steam…but I just can’t warm up to that SA Derby.

Jess Paquette and Dick Jerardi talked me into using Two Phil’s (#3) as a backup and in vertical plays. Mage (#8) has some real talent and today seems like a lot to ask but have to use as a second-tier player. At a big price.

Tapit Trice (#5) probably wants to be outside in this field but has real talent. The most likely 2023 Belmont Stakes winner. Was helped by the scratches moving the field off the No. 1 post.

Disarm (#11) is my favorite of the BIG prices. Nice second to Kingsbarn when that one set a glacial pace in his wire to wire win at Fair Grounds. Lexington just trying to get points to get into the Derby. Training well. Tipped his class in his Saratoga maiden breaker.

In the end I’ll end up on the horse who is doing well, has run fast and comes into this race on an upward trend

Angel of Empire (#14)
Disarm (#11)
Tapit Trice (#5)
Forte (#15)
Mage (#8)

***Update - The Fotre Scratch - Brutal break for the connections. The vets scratched Forte - have to imagine the deaths there at Churchill played some sort of factor.

Helps the chances of our top pick Angel of Empire. But really, really hurts the price. 3-1? 7/2? The likely favorite. He’s still my key horse for the race.

Two Phil’s elevated for me. But my top three stay the same.

Will not being making my usual Derby win bet at less than 4-1 on Angel of Empire. ***

Podcast Derby Picks - Full Derby Podcast here

MutStack Kentucky Derby Podcast

Matt Bernier - Angel of Empire
Jessica Paquette - Two Phil’s
Dick Jerardi - Two Phil’s

BOMBA!

After a few weeks off, Mohegan Sun Sportsbook Manager Brad Bryant is back with his bombs for the Derby.

Going back to his great appearances on “Mut at Night,” he’s given us winners, prices and good advice. From the man himself.

Top Selection: Kingsbarn - Has done nothing wrong in just 3 starts and has improved in each of the 3 starts.  If he takes a step forward, the horse to beat

Rocket Can - Has run with several of these at much lower odds.  Adds blinkers for this and workout on 4/30 shows this horse is ready.  Does not need to be 30/1 +

Mandarin Hero- Not a big fan of playing horses from Japan in the Derby, but hard to ignore this horses numbers.  Rough trip in SA Derby and just missed for the win.  Has enough speed from the outside to get into good position early.  Wild Card!

If you’re coming to Mohegan for the Derby come say hello. Hopefully you won’t see me at the ATM machine.

Some other thoughts for the stakes races today. A * = stronger opinions.

R4 - The Dance City Derby

5-2-1

R5 - The Distaff Turf Mile

2-7-4

R6 - Knicks Go Stakes

2*-11-3

R7 - Turf Sprint Stakes

10-3-8

Jessica Paquette: Longshot Plays #8 and #9

R8 - Pat Day Mile

7-10-5

Dick Jerardi - #9, #3

R9 - American Turf

4*-2-1

Dick Jerardi - #1, #4

R10 - The Churchill Downs

7-8-4

Dick Jerardi - 7-8 exacta

R11 - The Turf Classic

5-8-3

Dick Jerardi - #4, #5

My most profitable Debry was Orb winning and Golden Soul running second for a fun exacta. So let’s end there.

Hope you crush Derby Day. Hope we crush Derby Day.