Kentucky Derby 150 Final Thoughts
Kentucky Derby 150 Final Thoughts
It's Derby Day. Some final thoughts and picks.
And here we are. Kentucky Derby 150
Before we get to the big one. From our Kentucky Oaks preview Friday -
5. Thorpedo Anna (5-1)
Mut: Very nice return win in the Fantasy albeit with a good trip. Reportedly working well and hoping she gets forgotten at the windows with bigger names in here. Win contender for me.Mut: I like it. The #15 getting in has to juice this pace up and for that reason, I’ll take #5 Thorpedo Anna at anywhere near her ML 5-1.
5-13-8-11…and I’ll use your #3 as a price with those. But keying off #5.
Oaks/Derby Double: One of my favorite bets of the year.
A-A Play: 5,13 w/ 4,8,17
B-A Play: 3,8,11 w/ 4,8,17
A-B Play: 5,13 w/ 2,11,15,19,20
I had drawn up an Oaks win for Thorpedo Anna that saw her come from just off the pace and power home, as she had so easily in her last race.
And I laughed when Twinspires’ James Scully, a good handicapper and a guest of Steve Byk on Thursday, suggested that she might go right to the front and try to steal it after looking aggressive on the track that morning.
Scully 1
Mut 0
Ultimately, we got the money and the winner at 4-1 but did not think it would play out like that. And she was awesome. Took no prisoners from the start. Jockey Brian Hernandez was a statue into the stretch and she responded when he eventually asked. 5-13 was nice. Good effort from Just FYI in defeat. Some of the bigger names did not show up and maybe it can be tied to the sloppy track.
A fun way to start Derby Weekend and very much alive in the Oaks/Derby Double.
But who cares, But that was yesterday. We’re on to Derby 150.
There he is! Director of Mohegan Sun’s Sports/Racebook Brad ‘Bomba’ Bryant!
Bomba worked in Vegas for years and oversaw countless Louisana Derbies at FairGrounds. Now he runs the most horseplayer-friendly sportsbook in the country.
Don’t believe me? He turns the entire FanDuel Sportsbook at Mohegan Sun into a Racebook for the Derby, Belmont, and Breeders’ Cup. He also held a Horseplayer Appreciation Event last summer at Mohegan Sun, giving away thousands in contest prizes and free food and drink.
If you’re a horseplayer, you need to reach out to Brad and get involved.
As for ‘Bomba,” yeah he can’t play chalk. I asked for his take on Derby 150.
No doubt on paper who the best horse is, #17 FIERCENESS. But I have played the horses long enough to know that the fastest way to get broke is to play horses that look unbeatable at short odds. FIERCENESS may win, but he won't have me on his back as they turn for home.
For me, I must have value in a 20-horse field where anything can happen.
Remember, these horses are still babies and are still maturing. Based on this, my selection is #7 HONOR MARIE.
Toss the Risen Star and chalk it up as a needed race off the layoff. But even saying this, HONOR MARIE didn't run as bad as it looks. Big improvement in the LaDerby and been training nicely leading into the Derby.
With a hot, contested pace, Marie will flying late!
7 w/ 3, 4, 6, 17
Exacta Box All 5Good Luck
Bomba
It will be a great day in the Mohegan Sun FanDuel Sportsbook, alongside ‘The Big A’ Anthony Stabile and hundreds of crazy racing fans. Say hello if you come to watch the Derby or UFC.
150th Running of the Kentucky Derby
1 1/4 MILES
6:57 EST NBC
Back again to walk to the Derby 150 field with former trainer turned media star Chuck Simon from Going in Circles.
1. Dornoch (20-1)
Mut: The first of two for trainer Danny Gargan looked good last year but does not appear to have made a big move forward as a three-year-old. Is going to have to go from the rail and hard to see him impacting the race outside of being a pace player. Look forward to an eventual cutback in distance this summer.
Chuck: Little known fact: I saved Danny Gargan’s life about 20 years ago on the backside of Tampa Bay Downs. He was working as a jockey agent and had raised the ire of a fellow agent named Frank the Greek, a connected guy from Detroit who carried a Louisville Slugger in the truck of his Caddy… and it wasn’t because he played softball in his spare time. Anyway, one morning at about 5:30 am Frank pulled up outside the barn looking for Danny and he was quite agitated, especially for that time of the day. When he went to his trunk to get the bat, I thought “Oh this might be a problem” so I went outside to try to talk to him off the ledge. At the same time, Danny had wandered out of my office and was now looking to get as far away from the bat-wielding Greek as he could. Frank was shouting “Where is he?” so I said “Hey we can take care of this without you taking batting practice on his head” and he said to me “I have no quarrel with you but your friend has pushed me over the edge”. Understatement of the year lol. Anyway, I got Frank to agree to not use Detroit mob tactics on Danny (at least that day) when I told him I’d find him a couple of mounts from my barn to even the score, the Louisville Slugger went back to its hiding spot in the trunk of the Caddy, and Danny lived to train two horses in this years Kentucky Derby.
As for Dornoch, he hasn’t really developed as you said and with post 1, Saez has no choice but to gun to the lead and let the chips fall where they may. I’m guessing they will start falling around the second turn when he pays the price for setting rapid fractions.
Mut: Chuck Simon...the mediator!
I hope he at least bought you a beer or something.
2. Sierra Leone (3-1)
Mut: I don't know if you have any good Chad Brown stories you want to share, but he has a player in Derby 150. The big-kick closer will be flying late - but will likely have to navigate some major traffic to get there. Benefited from a huge pace in the Blue Grass and maybe he gets it again, but at 3-1, I'm not running to the windows to bet that everything goes his way. Talented. One of the likelier winners...but the trip and the price are not appealing. You've talked on your show about the way he reacted to the crowd at Keeneland - is that a factor in how you look at his chances later today?
Chuck: No stories, but I’m with you on being wary of taking one-run closers at short prices as there is so much that can happen in a race for horses with that style, and it’s almost all bad. Yes, the pace figures to be lively and if he can get a clean trip, doesn’t get trapped down inside, no one gets in the way or veers in front of him or bumps him, he can certainly win. Yet that is a lot to ask in a 20-horse field with some dubious contenders when trying to come from 18th down the backside and at a relatively short price, I’m looking elsewhere.
3. Mystic Dan (20-1)
Mut: His one fast race going long came when he benefited from a sweet rail trip at Oaklawn. Heard some suggestions this week jockey Brian Hernandez will try and get a good spot inside and take the shortest route home. Even if he does that, a minor award seems like his ceiling. Unlikely to be on my tickets. But my dad's name is Dan so....
Chuck: When it comes to the Derby, name handicapping has paid off well recently, when every dude named Rich or Richie scored out on Rich Strike. Mystic Dan is a strange case because prior to his big win in the Southwest he was barely a blip on the radar. Yes, the mud may have helped that day but he didn’t get a great trip in the Ark Derby and still salvaged an on-the-board finish. I’m not a big proponent of his sire Goldencents at 10 furlongs but I suppose he could be a use to spice up underneath in exotic wagers
4. Catching Freedom (8-1)
Mut: A deep closer with speed figures trending in the right direction. Closed like a freight train at Fairgrounds without the super-sonic pace Sierra Leone enjoyed - and he'll be 3x the price of that one. Prat has already had big Derby success and SuperTrainer™️ Brad Cox always seems to have his horses ready on big days. Huge shot to hit the board and a win candidate for me.
Chuck: Good points! I have been a member of his bandwagon all season and believe that not only is he talented, but he’s improving. The main issue beyond a deep closing style (see Sierra Leone) is that he just rarely runs in a straight line and is often late with lead changes. The likely culprit is him simply losing focus but that’s a concern in a race where there is not only 19 other horses and jockeys to contend with but a packed grandstand with 160k screaming people. I’m using him but defensively.
5. Catalytic (30-1)
Mut: He just followed Fierceness around there last time. His two races before that were not fast. They earned the right to be here, but strong pass for me. Following up on the "160k screaming people" you have mentioned the big crowd here and on your podcast. Does it factor into your handicapping?
Chuck: This year’s Soup and Sandwich-lite, which is not a compliment. 10 furlongs is a tough hill to climb for many of these and this colt in particular doesn’t figure to want any bit of that. The big crowd is one of those variables that is difficult to assess unless you know that a horse is known to lose focus or be a little nervous in general. Of course, I selected one of those types to win the Oaks so…
6. Just Steel (20-1)
Mut: Sometimes you have to go with your gut. And while my gut says this horse has no chance to win the Derby, I will probably use underneath because he's one of the few who looks like he has the foundation to be okay going a mile and a quarter. D. Wayne has run this guy into shape. So my gut says he can't win, but it also says I'm scared to death he hits the bottom of the board at a price. #handicapping.
Chuck: I’m with you on Just Steel. He has danced all the dances which is a positive in my eyes as fitness sure shouldn’t be an issue. Lukas horses are very hard to gauge and a glance at this guys past performances gives you a good example why. Won’t use on top but also not gonna let him beat me by sneaking up the rail and being third either.
7. Honor Marie (20-1)
Mut: Not familiar with the work of Kentucky native and trainer Whit Beckman but he has a horse people are talking about. It felt like early in the week this was he Derby "wiseguy" horse. Will be closing and with the right trip is a trifecta player. (Update - Live odds around 12-1 off the 20-1 ML so taking some $$).
Chuck: The word from the backside is that the regulation vets put the horse through the wringer this afternoon (Thursday) including a battery of tests that Honor Marie all passed. Whether the KGB…oh I mean KY Vets let him run or not is a different story. If he is in the gate Saturday night, I expect him to run well.
Mut: I'd really prefer the KY vets not be a story this weekend.
8. Just a Touch (10-1)
Mut: After Mage won this race last year off just three career races, maybe people will be more willing to bet this talented son of Justify. And there is real talent here - I'll let Chuck touch on it but his Blue Grass is better than it looks. Has been reportedly training well heading in. Can he get that second-flight trip off the main speed? If he can and the bright lights of the Derby aren't too much for him, he could win this year's Derby. Win candidate for me.
Chuck: He did race into the teeth of a very quick pace in the Bluegrass but I’m skeptical that he is going to wind up getting a little too close to a potential swift pace and not have enough left to hold off the closers or potentially not be able to reach Fierceness. Just a gut reaction but he has more of a Kingsbarns feel to him than a Mage feel.
9. Encino - SCRATCHED
10. T O Password (30-1)
Mut: Can't even find the tape of his maiden win. The race he won to qualify for this he was on the lead. Worked out in under :47 this week which signals he has speed. Reportedly "skittish" on track during workouts. All those words to say I have no idea what we get from this guy but he's gotta be a favorite to finish dead last in this Derby.
Chuck: It’s funny because I found some Japanese racing “experts” (props to Google translate), that actually prefer him to his country mate Forever Young. I really have no idea what he is going to do since after that work the other days his jockey (who rides regularly at Woodbine) said that they think he can sit mid pack. A total mystery.
11. Forever Young (10-1)
Mut: At some point, a horse from Japan will win the Derby. Heading into the 150th edition, winners of the UAE Derby that have tried the Kentuck Derby - all 19 of them - have finished off the board. History is not on his side. BUT.. this is not a great group he's meeting today. He's run fast. He's shown good finish. Of course, he reportedly does not like kickback and that might be an issue. Has kind of a weird leg action when he runs.
Chuck: He is a good horse and has won 5 races in 3 different countries so it’s not like he is a fluke. That said, Forever Young has a lot to overcome, the travel alone (Japan to Saudi to Dubai to Kentucky) is a lot. Of all the entrants, I feel confident in his pedigree to handle the distance best and the Japanese horses are winning major races worldwide so it’s probably coming soon…but perhaps not this year
12. Track Phantom (20-1)
Mut: Hall of Fame trainer puts blinkers on but then says the horse does not have to go to the lead. Can blinkers help a horse rate? Can he really win rating anyway? Does he want to go this far? Why is this all questions? Talent here but a pass for me.
Chuck: I don’t like his chances with or without blinkers. I know it’s blasphemous but he could have won the Preakness if he skipped this spot
13. West Saratoga (50-1)
Mut: Will likely show speed and take money from all Chuck's friends who live in West Saratoga. The best spot on the West Side is The Local. Love that place. Oh yeah, he's also the lone grey horse in this field, if you bet on all the grey horses.
Chuck: The West Side Sports bar (owned by noted racing photographer Dave Harmon) might have an argument to top West Saratoga spot. As for the horse, great story but he has to run way, way better than he has.
14. Endlessly (30-1)
Mut: Michael McCarthy has a pair in the American Turf. This one should be running there, too. Has never tried dirt and is bred for turf. I'd probably do the same thing if I owned a horse that qualified for the Derby, but no shot today.
Chuck: The owners of Endlessly can experiment with running him on the dirt if they so choose but the trainer and jockey were pretty adamant that he wasn’t a dirt horse and I believe them
15. Domestic Product (30-1)
Mut: I'm gonna lose some money using this guy as a price player. Lightly raced. Slow. Off since March 9! BUT...has closed into super slow paces, is reportedly training very well and I get Chad/Irad at something near 30-1. And he's the Other Chad. Underneath price play for me. I know you love these long layoffs into the Derby, Chuck....
Chuck: After I was totally wrong about almost everything in the Oaks (Thank You Just FYI from keeping me from totally missing the board) including the “other Chad” running third…I’m still against this slowpoke.
Mut: Just F Y I ran well from the 13! Also, slop, so bad ideas don't count.
16. Grand Mo The First (50-1)
Mut: Took a big bump early in that Florida Derby, but he was never winning. Yeah, he's the 6-1 favorite to finish last in the Derby. Hard to argue. That's all I got. Meanwhile, I just touted a horse that was right with this one at the Tampa finish line.
Chuck: Seems like one of those horses that when you look back a few years from now you are amazed that they ran in the Kentucky Derby when they are running in 30k claimers at Laurel. I’m passing on the entire state of Florida in this years Derby…except for maybe one exception and it won’t be Grand Mo
17. Fierceness (5/2)
Mut: I'm guessing this is your Fla Derby "maybe.” As I wrote two weeks ago, you're either with him or against him. I'm going to be with Team Repole here. I think this narrative that he "needs things his own way" is overblown.
Legit trouble in the Champagne and as you have noted, probably short in the Holy Bull. It is annoying that Eric Ride gets in and might be involved early from the outside, but I trust Johnny V. Camp seems super confident, training up a storm and is fastest on paper. I'd be happy with the ML 5/2 and if any of these is going to crush today, it's this one.
Chuck: I meant the entire state including the Tampa preps as well. Using your Sherlock Holmes detective skills, you have figured out my exception to the FL ban. He is really good but he’s also flawed enough to give many pause before they’ll drop a stack of hundreds on his nose. His best race destroys this group and yes it’s the Kentucky Derby and yes it’s a regular occurrence that various horses don’t always run their best races here but he has run some frighteningly fast races. I foresee a similar trip to what Thorpedo Anna got in the Oaks and we see what happened there. Admittedly he is still a little bit of a scary proposition due to his occasional gate tardiness so I won’t be betting the house but IMO he is the most likely winner.
18. Stronghold (20-1)
Mut: I have always been more Matlock than Holmes. As we get towards the race, I realize I am not giving this one enough of a look. It's my bias against the CA horses. His wins have come against the second and third-tier three-year-olds. But he's paired up top Beyers and comes in third off the layoff for a sharp trainer. Looks a little slow and hard to make the trip for him, but he's not impossible to get into the super or Hi-5.
Chuck: I’m more like Jim Rockford (dating myself)! I have a personal rooting interest as Stronghold’s trainer Phil D’Amato’s first job on the racetrack was working for me at Churchill Downs about 20 years ago. While I am certainly rooting for him, I’m skeptical of the two Derby preps he won this year in New Mexico and S. California and every time I look at his pedigree, Jimmy Creed (his dam’s sire) jumps out at me and not in a good way.
19. Resilience (20-1)
Mut: I would watch "The Simon Files." Resilience is very similar to Stronghold. Pace #s, Beyers, running style. We liked him in the Wood and Bill Mott is one of the best. But like Stonghold, feels a notch below some of these top three-year-olds. Johnny V off never feels good, but was part of that good Risen Star. Underneath usable.
Chuck: If I don’t start cashing some tickets I might have to find some freelance PI work to get me ready for the Saratoga Belmont. Agree with your sentiments on Resilience. Nice colt that is moving in the right direction but it’s hard to envision a trip where he doesn’t wind up wide on the turns or back further in the field than he usually sits. Junior did a nice job on Just FYI in finding a palatable trip from the outside, he needs repeat that effort which is even more complicated from post 18.
20. Society Man (50-1)
Mut: Yep, using underneath. My idea - Dornoch has to go from the inside. This OTHER Gargan with Dettori up makes a beeline for the rail. Tries to take the shortest trip around there. Always been pointed longer. Worked right with Dornoch last time. But you saved Danny's life once, you tell me what's going to happen.
Chuck: I missed the wedding in the Wood and I have to say that I’m not planning on attending the divorce in the Derby. Dettori was a smooth pick up but he;s going to have to work some real magic here.
21. Epic Ride (30-1)
Mut: Selfishly, I wish he didn't get it as he could impact my plays with Fierceness. Early foot. Getting better with distance but did appear to get weg-leary late before the jock got into and then up for third in the Blue Grass. Only one career race on dirt. As a handicapper, it's annoying he got in here, no offense to the connections. Probably not using.
Chuck: Yeah I’m with you on him. Ennis has done a good job with him but he seems like this is a far bigger bite than the Bluegrass was. I’m going to treat him as though he didn’t get in and ignore him
Mut: Like you said, let's cash some tickets. How are you playing Derby 150?
Chuck: As for cashing tickets, I will likely use Integration in the Turf Classic (race 11) in daily doubles with Catching freedom/Honor Marie/ TO Password/Forever Young/Fierceness and Resilience.
I will key Fierceness in tri’s over those 5 using all (minus West Saratoga, Catalytic, track Phantom and Domestic Product). Maybe (depending how I’m doing) box the 5 I’m using second in the exacta in case Fierceness bombs.
Thanks, Chuck, cash some tickets!
Final Derby Thoughts/Picks
As a weekend handicapper who mocks the guys on TV when they’re handing out favorites left and right, it does pain me in some ways to land on 5/2 Derby favorite FIERCENESS.
But as it has been all Derby Prep season, the process of elimination leads me here. He has the fewest knocks and also the highest upside based on past performance. Could he bomb? Sure could. Is he a great bet at 5/2 or 2-1? Depends on who you ask. I saw my friend and FanDuel TV’s Matt Bernier make him 2-1 on his value line.
I see him sitting off the leaders much of the race, getting a pretty clear trip to their outside. Then, like the BC Juvy, taking over at the top of the stretch and powering home.
A poor start, supersonic pace and/or EPIC RIDE hounding him could derail that plan.
If it’s not him, CATCHING FREEDOM is the closer I want at 2.5x the price of SIERRA LEONE, though the latter is a more likely winner. JUST A TOUCH is short on experience but has major talent. In a ‘mid’ crop, why can’t that win Derby 150?
FOREVER YOUNG has the figs and running style to be the winner, but he’d be the first from Japan and there are signs he might not love the crowd and kickback.
17-4-8-11-2 … longshots 6-7-15-19-18-20. I’m adding STRONG HOLD to the plays from my Derby video.
Final answer.
How about some Derby undercard ideas? A pick (horse I like) and a price (one I like…at a price)
RACE 4
PICK: #6 Best Actor
PRICE: #11 Oscar Eclipse
RACE 5
PICK: #3 Coppola
PRICE: #5 Mo Stash
RACE 6
PICK: #10 Vahva
PRICE: #9 Red Carpet Ready
RACE 7
PICK: #11 Coppice
PRICE: #9 Not So Close$
RACE 8
PICK: #12 Nash (I like #11 Vlahos but the world is picking him and he might go off favored)
PRICE: #5 Seize the Grey
RACE 9
PICK: #5 Legend of Time$
PRICE: #10 Set
RACE 10
PICK: #10 Gun Pilot (We’re not getting 10-1)
PRICE: #7 Track Mate
(I don’t hate #11 Hosit the Gold as much as I said on the podcast)
RACE 11
PICK: #11 Naval Power and #6 I’m Very Busy
PRICE: #7 Webslinger
That should cover it. One of the best days and betting cards of the year. Just a few hours away. Updates over on X.com during the day
Good luck at the windows on Derby Day. Only have to right a few times to have a winning day. And please bet responsibly!
Thanks for reading.