Kentucky Derby Prepping 2.1.25
Three prep races to jumpstart the journey on the 2025 Derby Trail
13 weeks.
More precisely, we have 91 days until Kentucky Derby 151.
It’s easy to get excited about the Derby and the Road that leads to it. As a racing fan, there’s a chance that one of these horses will turn out to be a superstar. And often, they first show signs of their brilliance in a Derby Prep race.
As a handicapper, we get a chance to watch the same group of horses square off against each other for a few months. The best ones will meet up for a final exam of sorts on the First Saturday in May. And if you put the work in, you can put yourself in a position to score out in one of the best betting races of the year.
There’s nothing better than that.
So yeah, I’m excited about the Derby Prep season kicking into high gear on Saturday.
As for horse racing, as a sport and betting game, I’ve never been more pessimistic about its future.
Just look at the recent headlines:
1/ST Racing - owners of Gulfstream Park - have basically threatened to close the track if the horsemen there don’t support legislation that would allow them to keep running their casino even if they don’t have live racing. Of course, they were granted that casino license because they have a race track.
You had Belinda Stronach last week on NBC saying racing in urban areas is not feasible…which is silly. She wants to build on the land because it’s worth more as a real estate investment than as a horse track, but she wants to keep the pot of gold that is the casino license. There’s been some great pushback from the industry on this and worth a read here and here if you’re interested in the story.Next Thursday at Aqueduct, the Pick 6 will start in Race 2. That’s because they carded just seven races. I have been a racing fan since 2004 and never remember a seven-race card in NY. With 46 entries (before scratches), it’s still just an average field size of 6.5. Dirt racing in NY has seen a major downgrade over the last few years and this is just another example.
The CAW groups are still at work, getting their bets in late and smashing the price on winners and exactas. Continuing to allow this helps the big computer groups and hurts the weekend and casual bettors. I made this video a year ago and this is STILL a major issue at most tracks.
Racing’s handle was down 3% in 2024 - and it would be a lot more if not for those CAW groups.
There are some really smart people in racing - I’ve been lucky to meet them. Hopefully, we can talk to some of them here in this space in 2025. But much of the industry is stuck on doing things their way and not thinking about the sport’s health as a whole.
A reminder that our Derby Prepping posts will appear in the StackCapping section of MutStack. You can change your preferences on what emails you get by hitting the Unsubscribe link on this email. You won’t be unsubscribed, but you can make sure you’re getting what you want from your free subscription. You’ll see this and you can adjust from there -
If you’re a racing fan, I hope you’ll subscribe and send this to other racing fans as we get closer to Derby 151. I plan on new posts and handicapping every Saturday through the Triple Crown.
Withers Stakes
FS2 "America's Day at the Races" including broadcast of the Withers Stakes (3:46 EST)
It’s an ungraded Withers to kick off our Derby Prep analysis. And at 1 1/8 miles in distance, Saturday’s $250,000 Withers S. at Aqueduct is the longest Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier contested thus far in 2025.
Seven horses are lined up for the 20-10-6-4-2 Kentucky Derby (G1) qualification points up for grabs by the top five finishers.
There is no pace signed on here in the Withers and that will help two of the shorter prices in here #4 Uncle Jim and #6 Captain Cook. Uncle Jim was part of a stable dispersal and sold for over $400k off that debut win. His next start got a decent Beyer for this group but I didn’t think he ran all that well. The winner there might be okay but nothing special. He’ll be involved early and it’s SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox, so I should probably respect him more than I do.
Captain Cook will be a shorter price and rightfully so. He dueled another horse into submission last time in the slop at Aqueduct and won easily as could be. Has early speed, talent, and Richard Dutrow training magic. The one to beat from my perspective.
Sounds like the connections of #5 Mo Quality wanted to horse closer last time when Coal Battle wired at Oaklawn. There have been two next-out winners from that race and a similar Beyer puts this one squarely in the mix. Expect more speed early.
#1 Global Steve looked good in his first two wins at Parx. Friend and Parx track announcer Jessica Paquette thought he looked like he was still trying to figure things out in those races - and yet he still won easily. Good post position and can sit just off the first group. Ignore Butch Reid shippers at your own risk.
#7 Omaha Omaha will be coming late, but I don’t see enough speed signed on for him to run down - but look for him to be there late. Maybe for a piece.
A few win contenders from where I sit, but this race sets up for the favorite on the front end. Rain is expected overnight in NY but mild temps in the forecast on Saturday, so we’ll see how the track plays as it drys out.
6-1-5-7
2025 Holy Bull Stakes (G3)
4:00 PM ET on CNBC and Peacock (5:13 PM)
Another field of seven and another race where 20-10-6-4-2 Kentucky Derby finishing points are set to be awarded to the first five finishers.
This is by far the most interesting of the three preps on Saturday.
#2 Ferocious is a deserving ML fave. And he’s also an easy play against. Trainer Gustavo Delgado thinks he has a Derby horse here, so having him cranked up for his best effort off the layoff seems unlikely. His trainer stats say something similar - 3 YO on dirt off of this type of layoff - just 3 for 27 (11%). He doesn't have to win to run well and set himself up for the Derby. I will point out that this guy never gets a good start and off the layoff, that could be an issue here too.
I don’t know if #3 Tappen Street is named after the street in Brookline, MA. I do know he ran a hell of a race of debut, bet down to 2-1 in a big field of 12. This one looked cooked into the far turn but kept running. And in the final furlong, kicked it into high gear and won impressively. The TFUS number came back strong (110) and SuperTrainer™️Cox shows real confidence entering him here off that debut. A win contender for sure.
#4 Guns Loaded could try and wire this group - and he might be able to. He’s got speed and is the son of the hottest sire of the last decade. With Irad Ortiz names and a decent speed figure, the price will be short. I won’t be shocked if he goes off 2-1 or so. Looks to be training well for this and is a win contender even at that short price.
#6 Burning Glory had gotten faster on Beyer and TFUS figures in every race. His last TFUS number tops this field. He’s bred to be fine at the distance. If you believe the TFUS number - you’re getting a win contender at a good price. Trainer Bill Mott 3 for 12 (25%) with 3 YO colts on the dirt in a Graded Stakes off a MSW win last time. Very, very interesting at that 8-1 price.
#7 Burnham Square’s trainer Ian Wilkes on his runner—“But, we’ll see. He’s got to make a step forward. He’s still got to improve some.” I never love comments like that. This gelding has run well but was just 30-1 on debut and 18-1 two-back in a MSW. Seems a cut below these but should note that he appears to be working well for this one and has faced okay company.
The visual of Tappen Street’s debut is enough for me to bet at 3-1 or so. But this is a nice group and a few could win. I’ll take a stand against the ML favorite off the layoff.
3-6-7-4
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)
4:00 PM ET on CNBC and Peacock (5:30)
This race will be the middle of the three preps run on Saturday. But it’s much less interesting than the Holy Bull.
This is horse racing in 2025 - a Grade III Derby Prep with five entrants, three of which are trained by Bob Baffert and owned by the same group. Add this to the list of major issues for racing - California is a disaster.
It’s a great deal for Bob Baffert, though - this race still awards 20-10-6-4-2 Debry Points to the Top 5 finishers. Congrats, Bob!
The headline here is BC Juvy Champ #2 Citizen Bull makes his return here. He’s always shown talent and had worked well into his BC win last fall. He should fall into a good trip behind stablemate #3 Rodriguez, who looks quicker early. His 101 Beyer last time makes him a major player here and I expect he’ll try to go gate-to-wire.
He should have company in the form of Ward’s #4 Clock Tower. This horse looks quick early and has been working well for his return to dirt. I don’t know if he can win, but he could soften up any other frontrunners.
That should benefit the third Baffert, #1 Madaket Road. This one should be able to sit a nice trip off the speed and be in a great position at the top of the stretch. He’ll have to stretch out, but Baffert has great numbers on dirt with 3 YO going sprint to route.
When one trainer runs the top three choices in a five-horse field, weird stuff can happen. I do not expect to bet much on this race.
I do expect Baffert to run 1-2-3 here and will take the longest shot on top and hope Frankie Dettori can stalk the pace and get this one home at 5/2.
1-2-3
Good luck if you’re playing the races today. I’ll be posting quick reviews of the prep races in the comment sections of these posts. Hopefully, all this work pays off on the First Saturday in May!