Kentucky Derby Prepping 2.15.25
The Big Easy hosted the Super Bowl last week and now is the focus of the Derby Trail
I am not giving up.
I posted the video above a year ago after Risen Star Weekend - and then again yesterday on X.com - and I wrote about it in yesterday’s Friday Four-Pack newsletter.
Many of the responses were similar to the one above from Staggie - there are people who believe that it’s over for horse racing and we’re in the ‘slow drip til it all runs out’ stage of the game.
For now, I refuse to believe that.
For one, there’s too much money involved. Second, some very smart people around the game realize the danger of allowing CAW groups to have such a severe advantage over the average horse player.
I can tell you some of those people saw yesterday’s video and reached out - I’m hopeful their voices will be heard among industry leaders and we see real change for the better in 2025.
This a reminder that NYRA has the most player-friendly, CAW barriers in place - they’re blocked out of the win pool with 2 MTP, and they can’t play in the late Pick 5, Pick 6, or Cross Country Pick 5. You’ll see their action in exactas, for sure, but NYRA has made some effort to make it better for us.
Unfortunately, today at Fair Grounds, I expect to see some version of the video above a few times - they have become notorious for late odds drops in the win pools.
After two weeks of Derby Trail picks, let me tell you, we are on fire with the top choice. 🔥🔥🔥
4: 1-2-1
A mythical $2 WPS bet on all four cost you $24. It returned $24.80. Folks, we are up .80¢
How am I giving you these picks for free???
Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds
FanDuel TV (730 PM EST)
Thanks to its placement on the calendar and mile and an eighth distance, The Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes has become a major player on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
The 2024 winner, Sierra Leone, ran second in the Derby. As did the 2022 winner, Epicenter. The 2023 winner, Angel of Empire, ran third in that year’s Derby.
What also helps this race is the points awarded towards the Debry starting gate - 50-25-15-10-5 to the first five finishers. If you win, you’re almost assured a spot in the Derby three months out.
The competitiveness of this race (at least on paper) took a major hit Thursday with the scratch of #2 Jonathan’s Way. Not sure where he’ll turn up next after spiking a fever, but as of this moment, he looks like a potential Derby player. Too bad.
Bad news for those of us looking to bet on that one, but good news for the connections of #4 East Avenue. After back-to-back dominant wins to open his career, East Avenue was sent off as the favorite in the BC Juvenile - and promptly lost all chance when he struggled out of that gate. It’s a forgivable result and he is a deserving favorite Saturday, thanks to a 95 Beyer earned last year that towers over this group. Trainer Brendan Walsh is having a good start to the year and does well with these layoffs. Per DRF Formulator— 100+ days, on the dirt, 3 YO—he’s 6 for 19 (32%) over the last five years. The one to beat, clearly.
If you look past Beyer and use TFUS Speed Figures, then #1 American Promise will be a player on your tickets. He's quick early, draws the rail, and comes out of a competitive race last time at Oaklawn where he battled a fast pace early. Like so many others trained by D. Wayne Lukas, he looks to me like a sprinter. But after losing the equivalent of a nice, all-inclusive vacation in St. Lucia betting against Seize the Grey in 2024, I’ll acknowledge he’s a player here. BUT…he’s going to be nowhere near his 12-1 ML with the scratch of Jonathan’s Way. He seems like the wiseguy horse based on some public picks I’ve seen, and I won’t be totally shocked when goes off as the second choice.
#9 Built was not scheduled to run here, but he shows up in the entries and brings pace to the race. His race two-back to wire the Gun Runner was pretty good. Then last time in the LeComte, on a sloppy track, he was all-out to finish second. I don’t think that was a great race, but if you think he’s the horse from the Gun Runner and he just hated the slop last time, maybe you want to use him.
At what should be a better price, I am much more interested in #3 Vassimo. In his debut back in December, he was three-wide sitting off a stablemate, until taking over at the top of the stretch. His main rival sat a perfect trip inside and joined the battle late. Vassimo held that one off in the lane, showing some teal grit in the process.
The horse he held off, Rapture (trained by SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox) would return to crush in his next start, earning a much improved 83 Beyer. Vassimo looks much more seasoned than a horse with just two career starts. Trainer Todd Pletcher sees fit to try this one in a big spot after just two races and with another bit of improvement, he’s a player here at a decent price.
I don’t know why I’m supposed to like #7 Septartian, other than he’s trained by Chad Brown: that Mucho Macho Man looks like a bad race.
I wanted to like #10 Render Judgement. He’s caught back-to-back slow paces and for a horse that wants to come from off the lead, that’s an issue. He also stumbled last time. But even accounting for all of that, he’s still a notch below a bunch in here. Bottom of tris and supers.
Even if he has to wait off of American Promise early, East Avenue should sit a great trip in here. He comes in off a strong work pattern and his main rival scratched. He’ll be 3/5 in here, but he’s the pick to win: my chalk parade continues. Let’s see if he can back up his two big races as a two-year-old.
Will use #3 Vassimo as my exacta horse. And will key 2nd and 3rd in the trifecta with other players.
4-3-10-1
I’ll be playing a Late Pick 3 into the Risen Star on Saturday night, as we get another weekend snow push in New England.
Race 12:
As 1,3,8 // Bs 4
Race 13
As 2
Race 14
As 3, 4 // Bs 1,10
EDIT - Updated for scratches
All As 138/2/34
B/A/A 4/2/34
A/A/B 138/2/1,10
Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby at Sunland Park
(Fanduel TV, 6:17 EST Sunday)
The 1 1/16-mile Sunland Park Derby is set for Sunday at Sunland Park in New Mexico. This is NOT an elevated Derby Prep and will offer 20-10-6-4-2 Derby points to the top five finishers. It is the featured ninth race on the card, with a post time of 6:17 p.m. ET
PROGRAMMING NOTE - I have wanted to try posting one of these using the X.com articles feature and Sunday’s Sunland Derby provides a good time to do so.
Bob Baffert looks tough in there, but I’ll post a full breakdown X.com on Sunday. You can follow me on X.com right here.
Good luck if you’re playing today. Comments are open for all your feedback.
And safe trips for all.
