Kentucky Derby Prepping 2.17.24

A loaded Risen Star. Derby Future bet ideas from a special guest.

Have I been to Santa Anita? No.

Old Del Mar? Nope.

Gulfstream Park? Almost, but bad weather postponed the trip.

No, my racetrack travelogue is pretty weak. But I have been to Fairgrounds Race Course in New Orleans. Louisiana Derby Day 2015.

I have the $5 koozie to prove it.

Any other pictures from the day have been lost in iPhone upgrades.

International Star won the the feature at 2-1, over a horse I chased for a few years, Stanford. War Story was in the field. Keen Ice, who would upset the Travers. Mr. Z!

Fun group. I lost money that day. For sure.

We have a legit field for the local LA Derby prep, the Risen Star. It’s surrounded by good races on what has become a good card on the Derby Trail.

Maybe it’s the 1 1/8th distance. Or the timing of the race. But the New Orleans preps have been essential to Derby Day in recent years.

The 2023 Risen Star winner, Angel of Empire, would go on to run third in the Derby. The 2002 winner Epicenter ran a huge second to Rich Strike in that year’s Derby. And Mandoloun, the winner of this race in 2021, ran second but was eventually declared the Derby winner when Medina Spirit was DQ’d thanks to a failed drug test.

Good field. Important race. But first, we have a Derby Future Pool to discuss.

This is Pool #4. There are six total, open for two days a time.

Truth be told, these should be open to everyone during the entire Triple Crown season. They’re open to folks in Vegas who can physically get to a casino but mobile sportsbooks or ADWs around the country should have them open to everyone.

People love futures. Especially when the market would be moving every Saturday during prep season, similar to the NFL season each week.

Update the betting menu!

My goal this year was to build a small portfolio of horses, with the hope of having a couple of live long shots for the Derby. But it’s not easy.

Thankfully, America’s most handsome handicapper and my friend Matt Bernier is here to help.

Matt is helping people find prices every day on FanDuel TV. He is one of the best when it comes to tabbing longshots, either in race or in future pools like this one.

I asked him for his thoughts on Pool #4 and he was nice enough to add some insight.

The timing of Pool 4 isn't ideal if you like one of the horses that will be running in the Risen Star this weekend. If you like a horse at a price before the race and they perform well, your price evaporates. I suppose the opposite is true and perhaps you can save a few bucks if your preferred runner doesn't lift a hoof, but the fact remains - the timing of this pool is tough.

I'm not crazy about the 20-1 price that's been hung on Shug McGaughey's CONQUEST WARRIOR, but he's still the most intriguing three-year-old I've seen so far. He's only got a maiden win to his credit (and a slow Beyer Speed Figure), but he's been training well leading into his next start. There are whispers that he still may end up in an allowance as opposed to the Fountain of Youth, which, for someone like myself, may not be great news if you're considering backing him in this pool. Nonetheless, he's the one I'm most interested in this weekend. If he floats into the 40-1 range I'll consider making a play.

If you're looking for runners that are a bit more outside-the-box, REAL MEN VIOLIN at 90-1 on the line looks appealing (with Saturday's Risen Star pending). I'll also say that, from a colleague who follows Japanese racing closely, FOREVER YOUNG (30-1) may be the best hope the Japanese have had in the Run for the Roses - which is saying something given the hype surrounding Derma Sotogake last year, who ran very well given his trip to finish sixth (and eventually would follow-up with a second in the Breeders' Cup Classic). 

I’ll add that Matt has had a very good grasp on the Japanese horses over the last decade.

If I were being snarky to my friend, I’d say his toxic trait is betting on every Japanese horse that runs in the Triple Crown races.

As for me, I’ll tail Matt on REAL MEN VIOLIN and his Japanese hopeful FOREVER YOUNG for a few bucks.

He may not even really be pointed to the Derby, but at 30-1 or better, I’m betting SPEAK EASY. He’s probably a one-turn horse, but his debut got a 100 Beyer. If he does enough from here to get to the starting gate on the first Saturday in May, he’ll be a much lower price than 30-1. And that’s the idea.

His Brisnet PPs for this pool do not show it, but he got back on the work tab Wednesday at Palm Beach Downs. A good sign. Hopefully.

JUST A TOUCH was awesome on debut for SuperTrainer Brad Cox. It looks like he’s being pointed to the Gotham and based on his first effort, I’ll play…but he;s getting bet.

I played TIMBERLAKE in Pool 3 at a better price than he’ll be this time - he’s 16-1 now vs. 30-1.

That’s to Matt for his help. Follow him on X.com and watch him on TV later today. I will be.

The Risen Star (Grade 2)
1 1/8-mile on the main
7:17 EST (FanDuel TV)

On my first pass through this race, I was only able to cross out 1,2 and 12.

Sure MOONLIGHT looks slow, but he caught two straight wet tracks. Has a fast race three back and good works coming in. REAL MEN VIOLIN might be a turf horse but closed well in his last. See above for Bernier take. CARDINALE…actually he can’t win draw a line through. RESILIENCE looks slow but has a good, improving pattern and seems bred for this distance. HONOR MARIE is a huge wild card, now off since last November. These layoffs are not great for this trainer. Maybe next start.

If you bet SIERRA LEONE in the Remsen, you had your heart ripped out when the Chad Brown trainee made a huge move from dead last and looked like an easy winner…until he ducked in late in the race. Dornoch took advantage and rallied back for an improbable win.

HALL OF HAME looks like a typical improving Steve Asmussen three-year-old. Improved big time from first to second start stretching out. That was also with Lasix which he won’t get today. But the worktab looks solid. That was some effort in start #2. Another talented son of Gun Runner.

SuperTrainer Brad Cox has another good-looking contender in CATCHING FREEDOM. Has been favored in all three starts and is likely to be overbet. But on running style and speed figures is a player.

Asmussen’s other horse TRACK PHANTOM is the the likely favorite. And one I want to bet against. He’s gotten back-to-back cherry trips. I can’t see how he’s able to cruise up front here against this group. And that’s his best chance to win. Like CATCHING FREEDOM, a contender but the price will not be great.

Adding to what is already a tough race, New Orleans saw about 1/3 inch of rain overnight. There will be some moisture in the track, most likely. Races 2 and 8 are OFF THE TURF.

Nothing crazy, but I’ll land on HALL OF FAME as my top pick. 9/2 or better would be fair to me. A win bet at that price.

Maybe it’s me rooting after his last start, but if SIERRA LEONE is ready he’ll be right there, too.

My best price idea is RESILIENCE. Lots of options for trainer Bill Mott and he ends up here. Johnny V is along for the ride.

I’ll be against TRACK PHANTOM anywhere in the Top 2.

7 - HALL OF FAME
4- SIERRA LEONE
10 - RESILIENCE
6 - REAL MEN VIOLIN

An excellent race and card. Good luck if you’re playing.