Kentucky Derby Prepping 2.22.25
Weather moves the Rebel to Sunday. The spotlight is on synthetic Saturday.
The Derby Trail Giveth and the Derby Trial Giveth Taketh away.
Okay, that’s probably a little too much.
But like clockwork, we lose talented horses every year en route to the Kentucky Derby.
In the case of Magnitude, the Risen Star Stakes runaway winner last Saturday, we lost a horse that ran fast enough to be included in some pretty impressive company.
Over the last 15 years, only four horses had registered 108+ Beyer speed figures in a prep race and then made the Derby starting gate.
California Chrome - Derby winner.
Bodemeister - Derby runner-up.
Materiality - 6th in the Derby with a slow start
Fierceness - 16th in the Derby with a slow start from post 16
Magnitude’s freak at Fair Grounds added some juice to what has been a pretty drab Derby Trail heading into the final week of February. Now, as our friend Matt Bernier points out, he’s just another “What if…” on the Road to Derby 151.
Our chalk picks are officially in the red through six races on the Derby Trail.
6: 2-2-1
$36 in // $34.40 out
-$1.60
We’ll have some prices to play this weekend. They might still lose, but they won’t be 9/5.
John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park
1 1/16-mile on Tapeta
FanDuel TV (8:55 PM EST)
The 1 1/16-mile race on Turfway Park’s Tapeta track offers points on a 20-10-6-4-2 basis toward a berth in the Kentucky Derby.
A few issues with this race.
It’s not an elevated event, so the Derby points available don’t match up to other races as we get into March.
It’s on the synthetic Tapeta surface, so the results are not an indication of any guaranteed success on the dirt main track at Churchill Downs.
So you end up with pretty weird fields in this race. It’s not a race I’ve put much stock in when it comes to the Derby, even with Rich Strike coming out of it to win Derby 148 in 2022. But on paper, it’s a good betting race Saturday night.
2-1 ML favorite #9 First Report is not going to run here and as a result, it feels like a pretty open event.
#10 Coming in Hot will probably end up going off as the favorite. He’s been a different horse since going to the Tapeta surface and the Beyers reflect that. He’s never run this far and the trainer has not been great with horses going to sprint to route, so I’ll be in no rush to back him at a short price.
#7 Baby Max is the other that will come down off the 6-1 ML with the scratch of the favorite. He ran well last time going a mile here, but the comment Perfect Trip is dead on. Got a sweet trip and won easily - but he’s likely to face more adversity and more talented horses tonight in Kentucky.
I’m more interested in a couple of horses that did not run well in their most recent starts.
#4 Calling Card broke his maiden at Aqueduct by 17, before running into the talented Sandman in his next start. Trainer Mike Maker thought enough to run him in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes, where I thought he had a bit of a trip. Had to steady very early then found traffic into the first turn. He was very wide late and did not impact the finish. Rather than go on the Risen Star off a bullet work, Maker sends him here. We know how Magnitude ran back from that race…I’m not expecting Calling Card to run that well but I do like him at anywhere near his 10-1 ML price.
#12 Maximum Promise comes out of that same race and probably ran a tad better than Calling Card that day. He was back and against the rail for most of the race. He made his run late, looked like he was just spinning his wheels, and then showed some life through the finish line. Like Calling Card, he skips the Risen Star and ends up here for a trainer that has popped with some nice prices on synthetic.
#3 Studlydoright has faced some of the better of this crop on the East Coast and has yet to embarrass himself. His ‘off’ effort in the Hopeful can be chalked up to hitting the gate at the start. These are local Maryland connections that could have stayed home and been 8/5 in the Miracle Wood Stakes on Saturday afternoon. Instead, they ship here for a shot at Derby points. Interesting and usable at a price.
The other interesting price was #8 King of Ashes. He just broke his maiden but did so impressively, getting up for the win at today’s distance after a tough start. His two races on synthetic have been fine and I could see him getting a piece a a big price today.
These are tough races to handicap and there is a lot of guesswork, so I’ll land on a trainer who has won this race before and a horse that might offer some decent odds Saturday night.
4-12-3-7
Scratch Update: With our top choice scratched, we’ll just elevate the other selections and add longshot King of Ashes. We will be against the likely favorite Coming in Hot.
12-3-7-8
The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
1 1/16-mile on dirt
FS2 and FanDuel TV (Sunday, 6:23 PM EST)
#10 Bullard would have been a player here at 5-1, but he spiked a fever and will scratch. What remains is still a competitive group of 13 running Sunday, thanks to Oaklawn moving the race as cold weather had impacted Hot Springs, AR over the last week.
This is an elevated event, so 50-25-15-10-5 Derby points to the top five finishers. The winner is almost assured a spot in the starting gate for Derby.
At least on paper and without the benefit of the updated scratches, there is a lot of speed in here. #11 Speed King has done nothing but go to the front in all three of his races - is today the day they try and rate? Maybe, since they have to figure #8 Innovator is blasting off, too. He ran big and in a fast-paced race in the Lecomte, only to get run down late. Can’t imagine D. Wayne’s instructions are anything but “go.” Note his two best races came on a wet track.
#9 Smoken Wicked comes out of sprint races where he made the lead so why would he not go? Like I said, a lot of speed.
ML favorite #3 Sandman would be the one to benefit if a speed duel develops. He has the best TFUS Late Pace rating and would be happy to see them battle on the front end. Fits in here for sure but at a short price—the horse to beat assuming a good trip.
I picked #5 Madaket Road last time and I don’t see any excuse for this flat third-place finish (even if Baffert did run 1-2-3 in there). Maybe the track was playing to speed that day in California? If you think so, you have the excuse and a reason to bet. Given Baffert and Irad, 9-2 seems high for what you’ll get at post-time.
#7 Dreaminblue has taken a step forward on TFUS speed figures in every race. He was really impressive last time but now he’s stretching out against a good field. Talented, but seems up against it in this spot.
#1 Coal Battle might sit a good trip here. He’s 4 for 4 on dirt and seems versatile enough to either be part of a tepid pace or sit off a fast one. Given the low-profile connections, you’re guaranteed a decent price.
You might even get a decent price on the much higher-profile connections involved in #2 Admiral Dennis. This guy is also light on speed figures, but that doesn’t matter with SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox.
So, *puts on a tinfoil hat* I think there is a case to be made that on Jan 20 (last time Admiral Dennis ran) there was a real bias for closers at Fair Grounds. Just looking through the charts for that day, multiple horses who showed speed but could not hold on - those horses have come back to run MUCH better next time out: many of them improving their speed figures.
Admiral Dennis was near the pace, grabbed the lead at the top of the stretch, and held off Vamos Carlitos. That one came back to bomb the next time out in the Risen Star but benefitted that day from being a closer. We’ve seen some other late-runners from that card also come back and run worse.
Admiral Dennis has run well in three of four starts and if you project forward off that last effort and account for the track that day, he can be right there. PLUS, it’s Brad Cox.
#13 Tiztastic dealt with some traffic last time and had kind of an awkward trip, and gets a major jockey upgrade here. Note the trainer lit up the tote board last week with Magnitude.
This is a fun race. I think Sandman is the most likely winner, especially given a quick pace. But I’m gonna land on my weird opinion that Admiral Dennis might be better than that last race indicated and pick him on top. I’ll be betting to win at 10-1 or better—hard to get a big price on the best dirt trainer in the country. Speed King would get an upgrade if other speed scratches out before Sunday.
2-3-11-1
The Rebel card is a good one Sunday. Good luck if you’re playing and safe trips for all.
