Kentucky Derby Prepping 2.24.24

A big favorite at Oaklawn. A follow up to a Friday racing take. Forever Young a winner.

We will get to this weekend’s Derby Prep here in a second.

I posted this video as part of my Friday Four-Pack this week.

In the rewatch, a couple of things I want to clarify.

• I come across as a little whiny. Guilty as charged. I’m passionate about this.

• I love racing. I’m watching and wagering every weekend. I am betting less. This occurrence is one of the reasons why. I know I’m not the only one who feels the same way, so I made the quick video. I see a lot of “horse racing Twitter” posts that allude to this issue but without a basic explanation.
  
  Luckily, I am a basic, basic guy.

I also think there are a lot of people who feel this way but might be afraid to say it because they work in the industry or make money from the sport. I get it.

I hope they’ll eventually stand up and point out how crazy this is. Not just that it’s happening, but that no one is really doing anything about it.

If you want a longer-form take on this, I highly suggest this week’s Going in Circles Podcast.

Turns out I can post it right here, so I will.

If just one person in racing management sees this and starts the conversation, it’s a win.

This will not be the focus of Kentucky Derby Prepping every week. Instead, we’ll try and find a winner. It’s been a struggle.

6-1-1-1 (-$20.50, based on $2WPS bet on our top pick).

Not great, Bob. Not great.

And I don’t think this weekend’s Rebel Stakes is going to boost the ROI, even if we win.

Grade II Rebel Stakes
1 1/16 M at Oaklawn
Fox Sports 2 Coverage (Race time 6:23 EST)

Both this race and much of the Saudi Cup coverage today on Fox Sports and Fox Sports 2. Their investment in the sport has been a very good thing.

Today feels like a big day for SuperTrainer^™️ Brad Cox.

He has the big favorite here in the Rebel, TIMBERLAKE, a horse we bet in Derby Pool 2 at 30-1 or so.

TIMBERLAKE’S last two Beyer speed figures are the fastest and second-fastest in the field. He ran fine in the BC Juvenile but I don’t have a great excuse for how flat he was in the lane. Only Locked made up any ground late and to his credit TIMBERLAKE never quit.

He has run fast without Lasix which is good.

He’s the fastest horse on paper. I don’t think the field is anything special. And the word is TIMBERLAKE is training huge into the race. I’m not picking against him here. I might not bet much, but I think he’s primed for a big effort and a likely winner.

Horses for underneath:

TIME FOR TRUTH is interesting. He’s coming from two sprint races. In the last one, he battled on the front end before being run down by a good one. Liked the fight he showed that day. The outside post will be tricky, but I think they’ll have to send from there. He could take them a long way at a double-digit price. The trainer is 9-16 (13%) with 3-year-olds going sprint to route the last five years.

I lost money on a Steve Asmussen horse going from a maiden win into a stakes race last week…let’s do it again!

A half-brother to Dreamlike, DIMATIC gets blinkers after winning clear last time in the slop. Asmussen put blinkers on Disarm in the Travers and that horse responded. Any pace should help this horse, who should be coming from off the pace.

Love that D. Wayne keeps running his horses. JUST STEEL is back after his second in the Southwest. I feel the same way I felt that day - I think he’s a sprinter. He’ll eventually be cut back after a Derby Trail run and we’ll bet him then.

TEJON PASS is the longer price I would use under TIMBERLAKE. The last race for TEJON PASS is worth a review. He was favored and had the lead and the rail. Then was taken off the lead and tried to go outside. Had a light bump in the lane but kept running. Worth noting he’s kept good company. There are much worse 30-1 shots to use.

CARBONE is another we’ll eventually bet when he’s turned back to sprints. I see NORTHERN FLAME being bet and an underlay. Could be involved early.

Anyone else would be a stunner.

7-13-6-4

We are underway on Saudi Cup Day.

FOREVER YOUNG is considered a Debry Contender. He needed every inch of track to win the one-mile Boutique Stakes this morning in Saudi Arabia.

He closed big to beat BOOK’EM DANO, a horse we last saw at Tampa Bay Downs. He is not considered one of the better 3-year-olds in the United States.

Mixed result for the winner.

The good - he won. Showed fight late. This was just a prep. A very good final time.

The not good - sluggish early. Might not want kickback (did he best running in the clear).

If you bet him in the future pool (hand raised) you feel okay.

There’s $2 million on the line in the Saudi Cup later today, as DERMA SOTOGAKE returns off his good second in the Classic. Very logical.

Mentioned a big day for Brad Cox. After showing little in the aforementioned Classic, SAUDI CROWN bounced back in his prep for this at Fairgrounds. It was an easy win on the lead, but he was geared down late.

Will he try and blast off? He’ll have to avoid a pace duel with NATIONAL TREASURE and HOIST THE GOLD. Or he’ll have to sit off of those and rate. I think he’s sitting on a big race.

I never get WHITE ABARIO right so he’ll probably crush. USHBA TESORO fits too.

11-4-13-14

All eyes are on TIMBERLAKE. Nice card today at Oaklawn, a track I need to get to.

Good luck if you’re playing today.