Kentucky Derby Prepping 2.3.24
The return of the 2-Year-old Champ headlines a busy Derby Prep Day
And so it begins.
There was a time when I was a full-blown degenerate horseplayer. That meant firing on Australia A (or B) on Friday nights. Then bet every race I could at the major racetracks on the weekend. Monday and Tuesday meant trying to cash exactas at Mountaineer. And on and on and on.
Real life and a family no longer allow for that sort of schedule. My racing focus in 2024 is much more streamlined:
The Triple Crown
Saratoga
Breeders’ Cup
Big NYRA Days
The first leg of that schedule starts in earnest this weekend with four Kentucky Derby prep races, all offering points for the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
The goal of these Saturday handicapping posts is to make money when we can, but also get locked in for crushing the Debry and the Triple Crown.
Our Derby Prepping posts will appear in the StackCapping section of MutStack. You can change your preferences on what emails you get by hitting the Unsubscribe link on this email. You won’t be unsubscribed, but you can make sure you’re getting what you want. You’ll see this and you can adjust from there -
If you’re playing Saturday, let us know who you like in the comments below.
We’ll start at Gulfstream since the biggest star of this crop makes his 2024 debut there.
The Holy Bull (5:45 EST, FanDuel TV and CNBC)
A familiar story - a good Todd Pletcher horse looking like he lays over the field in an early Derby Prep race.
#7 Fierceness stands out like a sore thumb. The 2-year-old champ had one bad race last year - it came in the slop at Aqueduct and he did not break well. His other two starts, including the BC Juvenile win, were rock solid. If he breaks well he’s a very likely winner at a very short price.
It is rare to see Christophe Clement on the Derby Trail, but #3 Otello looks pretty interesting. He’s bred to run all day on the dirt. In both of his starts, he’s shown the ability to rate off of horses. That will help as the races get longer. He won’t be a price in here but looks solid to round out the exacta.
In his debut he was wide. In his last start, he was slow out of the gate and again, wide. #5 No More Time could be there in the end today at an okay price. Trainer Jose D’Angelo impressed with a shipper or two this summer at Saratoga.
The only other horse I’ll mention is #1 Hades. Rail, early speed and Paco. Plus a sneaky trainer. But all eyes are on Fierceness in his return to the races.
7-3-5-1
The Southwest Stakes (5:42 EST, FS2)
#1 Maycocks Bay has the distinction of being the first winner I picked last September as the paddock handicapper for PA Derby Day at Parx. I’m sure the connections will mention that in the post-race if they win. He ran a monster race last time, but that race was also with Lasix. Was not just a fast Beyer (95), he got a 117 on TFUS. That leads this field.
#1 Maycocks Bay likely wants the leads and that might be tough to get in this race. #4 Otto the Conqueror, # 7 Carbone, #10 Mystik Dan all want to be there too. I don’t think #5 Wynstock is some deep closer. Even #11 Just Steel has shown speed.
Bob Baffert is barred from running in Derby 150, but he looks like he has a good one in here. #5 Wynstock was a surprise winner of the Los Al Derby at 13-1. The Baffert Believers got paid that day. The three top finishers in that race all ran Beyers in the 80s. We’ll get a sense for those figures before this race, as the second and third-place finishers are running back in the Lewis (see below).
Like the fight shown from #4 Otto the Conqueror down the lane in the Springboard Mile. But that race was really slow. #7 Carbone feels like a sprinter. But will be involved early.
With all that speed signed on, I kept coming back to # 8 Common Defense as my price idea. He was able to sit mid-pack and take dirt in his maiden breaker. Once he got a seam, he kicked down the lane professionally. That was not a fast race, so I’m projecting a bit here. But he should get pace to run at here and I’m having a hard time separating the contenders. And he’ll be a price.
I won’t be betting him, so I’m sure D. Wayne is live with #11 Just Steele.
Of the bunch, this feels like the best betting race of today’s Derby preps.
5-8-4-1Update: Given the scratch of the #1 Maycocks Bay, in addition to the likely sloppy track, I would elevate the win chances of #4 Otto the Conqueror. He’ll be involved from the start and is 2-2 on a wet track. Keep an eye on the track during the day to see how speed and inside and playing. Odds will probably dictate my win bet.
The Withers (3:55 EST, FS2)
Only one way to go for #4 El Grande O. He’s going to the front with Kendrick Carmouche aboard and he can take them a long way stretching out from eight to ten furlongs. He’s only run on a fast/dirt track three times in nine races (3-0-2-1).
#9 Khanate has early speed, too, He’s stuck outside so rather than get hung wide, Eric Cancel is likely to try and get to the front early.
That’s the first of two in here for Todd Pletcher. The other is #1 Speed Runner. He won at this distance to break his maiden here at Aqueduct in December. That was a day TimeForm labeled that track as favorable to speed. Rail was pretty good Friday at The Big A.
Trainer Brad Cox has become, to me, the most dominant dirt trainer in the United States. His numbers are outrageous. He has a stable full of fast horses. He shows up at racetracks across the country and just wins. And wins. And wins.
#3 Lightline has not looked like a world-beater in his first three starts. But he shows up with Beyers that match up with this field and he’s trained by the hottest SuperTrainer in all the land. Note that his TFUS figures are not good.
He’s also going to be 9/5 in here. I can’t bet him or pick him at that price. But when he runs big, do not be surprised.
In a race that will have little impact on the 2024 Derby Trail, I’ll take #4 El Grande O at 5-2 or better.
4-3-1-9
The Robert B Lewis (5:23 EST, FanDuel TV, CNBC)
All eyes on #6 Nysos. Another Baffert horse that can’t run in the Derby, he has run two huge races to start his career. Only has to stretch out a furlong here. Have the feeling he’s just going to dust this field today.
Who else should you use?
Go watch the replay of #3 Better than Gold’s last race. He benefitted from a pace duel and a great ride from Mike Smith, but that was some finish. The second and third-place finishers both came back to win. He’s 6-1 on the ML but could see him going off higher thanks to other Baffert horses in here.
#7 Stronghold seemed to lose focus late when he ran second to the aforementioned Wynstock. He gets blinkers today and will be involved early.
#5 Coach Prime was coming late in that same race, now he gets Blinkers OFF. He’s one of the other Baffert horses that will just take money. He’s fine. Like the pizza at that local pizza shop in your hometown. Just fine. Nothing special.
#9 Scatify should be involved early and could serve as the target for Nysos.
It’s the Nysos show. Then more Bob Baffert talk on HRT. Awesome!
6-3-7-5
Football season is over. Basically. Derby Season is here.
Good luck if you’re playing today.