Kentucky Derby Prepping 2.8.25

All eyes on Tampa as the Derby Trail hits Florida

Just to get them out of the way, let’s start with a few negatives on this Saturday morning.

1. Only one prep race this week. Boo.

2. I lamented last year at this time that Tampa Bay Downs was the next ‘new’ track I needed to visit. I have friends who rave about the atmosphere, setup, weather, and customer service. Alas, I did not make it to Tampa…yet.

3. 

   Prominent and outspoken horse owner Mike Repole posted this Thursday. Unfortunately, he’s right. Every indication is that 1 S/T Racing—owners of Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park—is looking to sell its property to the highest bidders in an attempt to exit racing. It’s 1/9 that those new owners will also not want to be in the horse racing game.

A day after this post from Repole, news broke that Florida lawmakers are closer than ever to passing a bill that would allow tracks in that state to keep their casino licenses without running racing meets. That is BAD for racing.

The closure of those tracks in Florida - plus Santa Anita - would be crippling for the game, even with a beautiful new Belmont Park set to open in New York next fall.

I don’t think Repole is being hyperbolic when he says this year might be the most important ever for the future of racing.

Those are the negatives. There are indeed some positives this weekend.

1. Looks like a nice day in Tampa with temps in the 80s and no rain.

2. There’s a nice card built around the feature.

3. We get track announcer Jason Beem calling the race(s). He’s a good guy, a terrific author, and does a great job on the call.

4. Mike Rennie continues to make great weekly videos calling out the idiocy in racing. You should watch it. And you need to be following him on X.com if you’re a racing fan.

The first weekend of our Derby Prep season saw our top choices all hit the board.

3-1-1-1
A mythical $2 WPS bet on all three cost you $18. It returned $18.20. Almost 1% profit. You’re welcome for the winners 😆😆😆

As for Saturday

Sam F. Davis Stakes
Fox Sports "America's Day at the Races" including broadcast of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (3 p.m.-4 p.m. on FS2, 4 p.m.-6 p.m. on FS1 - 5:14 EST post)

A field of 10 lined up here for the 20-10-6-4-2 Kentucky Derby (G1) qualification points up for grabs by the top five finishers.

Morning line favorite #6 Owen Almighty looks like a legit player in here. He ran big on the front end last time in the prep for this race and crossed the wire first, before being DQ’d and placed behind fourth-place finisher Rookie Card. The stewards ruled Owen Almighty - with Irad Ortiz aboard - came over and interfered with that one. Rookie Card checked hard and Ortiz got a three-day suspension for the ride.

But he ran well despite the final placing. And his second-place finish to the talented Jonathan’s Way last fall was fine, especially given the slow pace. Gets blinkers, working well, very logical.

As is #2 Treaty of Rome. Trainer Chad Brown has been on fire at Tampa, with a 27-11-6-4 (41%) record at the meet heading into racing on Friday. This one was running late last time against Guns Loaded. The problem is Guns Loaded was terrible last week in the Holy Bull and it’s hard not to hold that against Treaty of Rome here. But it is Chad Brown with an improving horse. Guaranteed to be overbet in this spot.

I liked a second-time starter for SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox last weekend and here he is again with #3 John Handcock. This one comes out of a strong debut and gets Prat for this race. Note that Cox is 41% (7 for 17) going sprint to route with 3 YO on the dirt the last five years. Tappen Street was doing something similar last week in the Holy Bull and ran a good second. Real talent here, it appears.

#8 Naughty Rascal benefitted from the Owen Almighty DQ and he’s okay - he ran well to be second best in there. He chased home a speed horse that caught a good speed track two back. Looks more like a sprinter to me.

Here’s my problem with #7 Poster - the runner-up in the last race ran a better race than this one. The trainer is just 1 for 18 with 3 YO on the dirt coming off these types of layoffs. He screams that he’ll need one and a play against for me.

Two long shots to consider: #4 Dr Rubem M has faced some good ones out west before ending up here. Has the speed to be involved early and could hit the number at a price. The son of Vino Rosso should be fine with the distance.

#1 Camp Hale is still a maiden but has flashed real talent. The 110 TFUS speed figure he earned last time out is the third-highest in this field. He has run into some good horses in a three-race career and has upside at a price.

BUT…I think they’re all running for second. I think Owen Almighty looms large in this group. I hate taking a short price but he looks like the winner.

I’ll try and make money by keying Owen Almighty on top and needing one of Camp Hale or Dr. Rubem M to get into the tri with my other contenders.

6-2-1-4

Things pick up on the Derby Trail next week with the Risen Star at Fairgrounds and the Sunland Derby out west.

Good luck if you’re playing today and safe trips for all.

Some listening as you get ready for Super Bowl LIX.