Kentucky Derby Prepping 3.1.25
Waiting for a horse to emerge on the 2025 Derby Trail
It speaks to the lack of that “wow” performance (with Risen Star winner Magnitude off the Derby Trail with an injury) so far on the 2025 Derby Trail, that racing fans are still seeking out MSW and ALW winners as their potential Derby Horse.
Bob Baffert’s Cornucopian crushed last Sunday in a MSW race at Oaklawn on Rebel Day. He got a 101 Beyer, a 108 on Equibase and a 125 on TFUS, making his race as fast as any race run by a three-year-old this year. Baffert, of course, trained Triple Crown winner Justify - that one broke his maiden in February of 2018. This guy cost over $1 million at auction and is bred to be a good one: he’ll have to be to make the Derby off just a MSW race and say, the Arkansas Derby. But it is Baffert…
Thursday at Gulfstream, the Todd Pletcher trained Grande made it 2 for 2 in his career, getting an 87 Beyer going a mile and an eighth in an easy ALW win. He’s bred to run all day, owned by Mike Repole, and will probably get a shot to win one of the Grade 1 preps next month and see if he’s good enough. The Wood Memorial makes a lot of sense.
We’ll see how much actual clarity we get from the three preps today. One of them has just six runners - three of those trained by the same guy. Another is a one-turn mile that looks like a fun race, but not sure it’s built as a real Derby Prep.
A reminder - we’ll be doing this each Saturday through the Kentucky Derby. Please share with other fans of racing who are looking for Derby content leading up to the First Saturday in May.
Went for a few prices that didn’t pan out last week. We’re sitting squarely in the red with the on-top picks through eight prep races.
8: 2-2-2
$48 in // $38.32 out
-$9.18 (based on a mythical $2 WPS bet on our top pick)
I don’t sit down looking to pick any favorites, but you have to play the hand you’re dealt in these races - not all of them are great money-making endeavours. The goal is to be ready to crush on Derby Day 2025.
All three Derby Preps this weekend offer big points - 50-25-15-10-5 to the first five finishers of each race. This is a reminder that those 50 points to the winner should be enough for the Derby starting gate: 35 points was enough in 2024 and 40 points got you in the 2023 Derby.
Grade 3 Gotham Stakes
1-turn mile
FS2, FanDuel TV (4:18 PM EST)
Fun race, even if it is a one-turn mile.
All eyes on Linda Rice and #5 Sand Devil. The Broman homebred is 3 for 3 coming into this spot and a deserving 9/5 on the morning line. Has run fast at one turn and as luck would have it, he gets a one-turn mile here with a chance for 50 points and a likely spot in the Derby starting gate.
Right to his inside is another undefeated horse, the 4 for 4 #4 Sacrosanct. This one has stayed in NY for SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox. Cox has done well recently with his NY Team in late winter/early spring (Slip Mahoney, Hit Show) and this guy appears to be training big for this one.
Those two are trying open company for the first time, whereas #3 Calling Card returns to NY - he broke his maiden here at this track/distance before trying the G3 Lecomte. I thought he had a bit of a trip at FG. Had to steady very early then found traffic into the first turn. He was very wide late and did not impact the finish. As not entered back in the Risen Star, then scratched out of the Derby Prep last Saturday at Turfway, to run here at the track he broke his maiden. Player at a price.
#9 Garamond is a little slow on paper, but I thought he looked okay in that debut at Tampa. Like another Chad Brown horse, Praetor, this one has been working up a storm at Payson Park for Juddmonte.
#7 Flood Zone comes out of a race where the two horses that have run back on dirt have seen their Beyers drop by 19 and 13 points, respectively. Seems like a fake number, even with SuperTrainer™️Cox taking over.
A half-brother to super horse Thorpedo Anna, #8 McAffee looks a little slow on paper, but sometimes that does not seem to matter with Dutrow horses
This is a home game for Linda Rice. She has the fastest horse. She excels at stretch-outs. I don’t love the price, but Sand Devil seems a very likely winner. Sacrosanct is a major player for Cox. Biggest wild card is Garamond, but I won’t be shocked when Calling Card runs will here for a sharp trainer.
5-3-4-9
Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes
1 1/16-mile
FanDuel TV/CNBC (5:44 PM EST)
A quick note about today’s Derby Prep at Gulfstream. From DRF, “Gulfstream Park has lengthened the run-up in races run at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 miles on dirt an extra 85 and 53 feet respectively which should somewhat lessen the disadvantage of drawing outside posts in those races including Saturday's G2 Fountain of Youth and the G1 Florida Derby”
This will make today’s race a little bit longer and should also negate the disadvantage of being in the outside posts. If you’ve been someone who has been upgrading the inside posts at this distance at GP (hand up, me) this is worth watching today and on Florida Derby Day.
#5 Solid Left ran in a race here on Thursday and is OUT of this one.
I suspect #3 Burnham Square will go off favored here. He’s been a different horse since he put the blinkers on two-back. He won on the lead, has won from off the pace and has won at Gulfstream. That Holy Bull win came over a nice one in Tappen Street - but the rest of that field looks pretty suspect. Note he was also glued to the rail for most of that race while Tappen Street was wide and took a bump on the backstretch. Fits, but so do some others.
#2 Sovereignty comes into this with a back story. He ran in a loaded MSW race at Saratoga last summer. He returned to BAQ and ran into a Chad Brown horse (Praetor) that ran a 90 Beyer that day - that one has been working up a storm for his return at Payson. Then as a maiden, he crushed the G3 Street Sense last fall, in a race that included the talented Sandman. Any step forward off his 2024 campaign and he’ll be very dangerous here. These types of layoffs returning in a graded stake have not been good for trainer Bill Mott. But on paper, a player if he’s cranked up.
#6 River Thames has run two fast races at Gulfstream and ends up here as a potential Derby horse for Todd Pletcher. The dam was quick but never even tried a route of ground. There’s talent, sure, but won’t he have to battle #7 Neoequos for the lead? That one is quick early and can’t imagine they’ll try and rate here.
#1 Gate to Wire could benefit from speed duel and should get a nice trip on the rail here. # 8 Keep It Easy goes for a trainer who is 0-8 over the last five years with this type of layoff, on the dirt, with 3 YO returning in a stakes race.
#3 Burnham Square looks logical here, but I’ll land on #2 Sovereignty as the top choice. They should go fast enough early to give him a pace to run at and at 3-1 in this field, that seems fair. I’m indeed worried he’s not 100% for this race and Mott is just trying to get him ready for the Florida Derby. If he opens at a big price - say 5 or 6-1, that would be a bad sign.
2-3-1
Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes
1 1/16-mile
FanDuel TV/CNBC (6:43 PM EST)
This is not much of a race to handicap, but you can make the case that the San Felipe is the most likely race this weekend to feature the 2025 Kentucky Derby morning-line favorite.
But let’s be honest - with Bob Baffert training three of the six entered here, and those three showing the most early speed on the always valuable Timeform US Pace Projector - this is a really annoying race to try and handicap.
Because while he’s the speed on paper, maybe Bob wants to rate #3 Barnes today. He’s 2 for 2 and atop multiple Derby Top 10 lists. Super talented, he tries two turns for the first time. Even money for a reason and comes in with big hype. Fast enough to wire this group for sure…
OR maybe Bob wants to send #3 Rodriguez, who let his stablemate Citizen Bull get the lead last time and that one was able to wire. The race before that, Rodriguez earned 100 Beyer going straight to the front - maybe that’s his best chance to win so he goes early.
Oh look, there’s a third Baffert in the field. #1 Mellencamp is also fast early and has the rail - oh but the owners of that one also own #3 Rodriguez.
Like I said, very annoying race.
The confirmed closer in the group is #2 Journalism. He ran well, beating a Baffert horse at this distance last time at Los Al. That race has proven okay looking back through charts. And visually, he looked like he was getting better late at Los Al and the numbers say he’s improved with added distance.
I can’t imagine I’ll be betting this race, given you're at the mercy of what the Baffert horses do early. If one of the 30-1 shots flashes some speed early and forces Barnes and Rodriguez to go faster than they want to, that could set up Journalism to make a big run in the lane. He has a win at two-turns already and he won’t be the favorite in here against the Baffert duo. Good enough for me.
2-3-4
A lot of Derby points up for grabs for Saturday. Good luck if you’re playing and safe trips for all.
