Kentucky Derby Prepping 3.22.25

Two Kentucky Derby preps Saturday. Horseplayers continue to get short-changed.

We’ll get to the handicapping in a second.

Got this DM on Wednesday night. And indeed, it checks out.

#4 Always Adriana was 16-1 going into the gate in Wednesday’s finale at Gulfstream Park. She breaks on top and gets to the lead.

First flash of the odds - 6-1. That’s right, 16-1 to 6-1 in the span of about 40 seconds.

This is wrong.

The fix is simple - stop taking bets a minute before the race. Or at least, like NYRA, block win bets from the Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) groups with two minutes to post: I’ve written about this and talked about this here and on X.com for two years.

You can bet on any of eight NCAA College Basketball games on Saturday and be assured of your price when you make your bet: you will not be able to say the same if you’re betting Fair Grounds, Gulfstream, or a dozen other tracks this weekend.

Look, players are okay with some variance—you have to factor that in when it comes to parimutuel betting. But 16-1 to 6-1 is NOT OK, especially when the “projected odds” used by Gulfstream had the horse as 13-1. Even 13-1 to 6-1 feels criminal. 

Many of us have pointed this out and asked racing executives to make changes. Now, it’s time for the handicappers with a big TV platform—Jonathon Kinchen, Randy Moss, Andy Serling, Paul LoDuca, and the FanDuel TV stars—to say something!

You’re asking bettors to listen to you, watch your shows and videos, listen to your podcasts, and support your sponsors. How about supporting the players by saying something about this?

Will the track executives be annoyed? Sure, but that’s okay. You’re not going to get fired for supporting the customer. And if you are, you’ll be a hero. Pat Cummings and the NYRA folks can only do so much.

I keep hoping that the great Steven Crist will come out of retirement and write about this, but he’s done more for the player than 99.9% of racing media. Chuck Simon was happy to stand up and point out racing’s issues; his voice is severely missed.

It's time for someone with a bigger platform than a SubStack newsletter and a few thousand X.com followers to take the baton and fight for the player.

In 2025, what happened this week at Gulfstream needs to stop being such a common occurrence for the horseplayer.

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Bob Baffert’s Getaway Car was dreadful in the Virginia Derby. Upgraded American Promise the way the track was playing, but not enough. And for the second time this Derby Trail season, I let the lousy workout opinion of a few racing media members cloud my judgment. Won’t happen again.

I liked Render Judgement as a price, and that one delivered, running second at big odds. But still a loser for the record-keeping.

13: 5-3-2
$78 in // $86.52 out
+$8.52 (based on a mythical $2 WPS bet on our top pick)
11 % ROI

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Grade II Louisiana Derby
Fair Grounds • New Orleans, LA, USA
Points: 100-50-25-15-10
6:42 EST (FanDuel TV/CNBC)

Fun, fun race. It is the latter of the two today, but let’s start here.

If you’re just looking at the Beyer Speed figures in the Daily Racing Form, then the 7/2 morning line on #1 John Hancock probably feels a little short. Every other horse in the field, save for one, has run faster on Beyer than this SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox trainee.

If you look at his numbers on TimeForm, which take the pace of a race into account when giving out a speed figure for a horse (and race), then he has the best number here. That’s thanks in part to the fast pace he battled last time in winning the Sam F. Davis stakes over Owen Almighty. That one came back to win the Tampa Bay Derby pretty handily, earning a 93 Beyer in the process.

He’s only had two races, but there is real talent here. Today, he gets the rail and should be going right from the bell. The inside is usually good at Fair Grounds, and that’s been backed up this meet by the data Ryan over at the Betting the Odds Substack has been keeping track of. Ryan’s putting some real work in to help the horseplayer make smarter bets.

How To Play Louisiana Derby Week at Fair Grounds

His numbers show that coming into the week, dirt route winners came from the 1-3 posts 53% of the time. Looking at the charts this week, six of the first seven dirt routes were again won by the three inside posts. Then, on Friday, you had three runners win from outside posts going a mile or more. Those three horses paid $7, $5 and $3, so they were logical. But it’s worth noting for Saturday, and I’ll be interested in how the track plays early in the card. There are four races on the dirt at a mile or longer before we get to this race. If the rail is strong, this guy is an upgrade for sure.

This is a long-winded way of saying that this guy is a legit player, even if you think he’s light on Beyer.

#6 Build is the morning line's 4-1 second choice. He has a couple of races that put him in the mix here. And the Risen Star is worth talking about. This guy launched a big (early) wide move around the turn. I’m guessing jockey Luis Saez saw the 43-1 shot Magnitude on the lead and figured he would blow right by. But Magnitude kept on going …and he was glued to a rail that’s been good at Fair Grounds. Built had a wide trip and got just beat for second by an oncoming Chunk of Gold. That one, who was also 43-1, rode that sweet rail all the way home to just get second. Off that trip and the potential bias he fought, Built is a player here.

I’ll say the move to blinkers is not a strong move for the trainer - just 1 for 24 adding blinkers, three-year-olds, on the dirt - and that one winner was wearing blinkers the first time out. A concern.

#2 Chunk of Gold is a toss for me off that last effort.

D. Wayne is back in here after winning last week’s prep, and #5 Caldera will take some money. He’s run faster as the races have gotten longer, and he shows two bullet works coming in. His runner-up to Getaway Car in the Sunland Derby looks less impressive after that one stunk in the VA Derby. I won’t be betting, which means I’m once again putting Mr. Lukas in the winner’s circle.

Let’s talk about #7 Vassimo. I liked this one in the Risen Star. He broke okay from the rail and was hustled out of there by Irad. He lost position on the backstretch and was flanked on each side for about half a mile. Heading into the far turn, he started dropping out of it. I thought he was done. With a wall of horses in front of him, Irad swung him out late, and as all the other horses were tiring, this guy was still coming. He came home faster than every horse other than the winner, Magnitude, who was glued to what might have been a strong rail. This guy was out in the middle of the track.

He’s a huge horse, and if you gave me 10-1, I’d bet him to win the Belmont Stakes right now. But he’s 12-1 in here, getting blinkers, and can get into the number today. Todd Pletcher 21 for 102 (21%) first-time blinkers, on the dirt, three-year-olds. When you filter for Graded Stakes, he’s 1 for 11, with Forte being the winner of the Jim Dandy a few summers ago in Saratoga. A player at a price.

#9 Instant Replay is also a player in here, the second of two for Cox. His 2025 debut was solid - my problem is he spent most of that race on the rail before mowing down Furio late. Looked impressive and got a 93 Beyer, but can’t help thinking he benefitted from the trip on the rail.

#8 Furio is a complete toss off that last effort.

#10 Hypnus….I guess he had some trouble late in the Rebel, but he had a good trip into the stretch and even without some traffic trouble, I don’t think he was getting into the Top 3.

If he’s able to break cleanly and get to the front at a sensible pace, I think John Hancock is the most likely winner. But I see some other speed in here that should juice things up early. Vassimo, blinkers on, can sit off the early vanguard and hopefully get more of an inside trip late. He’ll have to move forward, but that’s why he’ll be a good price, even with Irad aboard. I’ll take a shot and put him on top. Built should be right there, along with Instant Replay.

7-1-6-9

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Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks
Turfway Park • Florence, KY, USA
Points: 100-50-25-15-10
6:25 EST

Hand up - there’s no worse synthetic handicapper in the country. If and when North American racing goes 100% rubber tire surface, I’ll be out. Please consider all of this as I walk through the Jeff Ruby Steaks.

Eight of the twelve horses here are coming in off a race on dirt or turf, not the Tapeta surface they’ll run on today. It adds an extra level of unknown to a race that already looks pretty wide open.

#9 Poster will probably go off the favorite, and I get it. Has run well on turf and dirt. Trainer Harty 19% (5 for 26) going dirt to synthetic - and he’s been a good synthetic trainer the last five years. Off the pace running style should suit him well here, too. Just don’t expect to get a price.

#3 California Burrito won the prep for this, but he got an easy lead there and held on late. Has to stretch out in this spot and will not get the same trip. Easy pass for me. I’d much prefer the runner-up, Baby Max, who should be able to sit a good trip. Or the third-place finisher, Maximum Promise, who was the only horse running late in that one and should get a better setup here. But there are a few prices I’m more interested in.

#12 He’s Not Joking ran well last year on the synthetic surface at Woodbine. Trainer Josie Carroll is very good and has a lot of experience with horses on Tapeta. She gets this one back to that surface after a couple of tries in graded company on dirt. Carroll is a solid 2 for 6 going dirt to synth with three-year-olds in stakes races the last five years. Note that Carroll has hit the board with seven of nine runners at Turfway this meet, and this one has a good workoiut coming in. And at 15-1 in an open race? I’ve made worse bets. MUCH worse.

#5 Flying Mohawk owns the best TimeForm number on turf coming into this. This one has back-to-back good races on the green - the last start was especially good, given the slow start. The trainer is just 1 for 20 going turf to synthetic, but at 15-1, again, I’ve made worse bets.

I’ll be taking a stand against the speed in here and have no interest in California Burrito. Poster might be the most likely winner, but I don’t want 3-1 in here. I’m going to trust in Josie Carroll and hope He’s Not Joking improves off some good races last year on Tapeta. Again, he should be a price, and I’ll take it as a good sign if this one takes some money tonight in Florence, KY.

12-9-10-5

Just six weeks until Derby 151. Time to lock in.

Good luck if you’re playing today and safe trips for all.