Kentucky Derby Prepping 3.2.24
Kentucky Derby Prepping 3.2.24
A big weekend. But there are some issues.
On paper, his is the first of three BIG days (now weekend) on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
Four preps on tap in North America, with three of them awarding the winner 50 Derby qualifying points and guaranteeing those horses a spot in the starting gate on the First Saturday of May.
But it’s not that cut and dry.
Let’s start Friday in Ireland, where there was a Derby Prep race worth 20 points to the winner.
We got a three-horse field where a 6-1 shot got it done. Don’t bother looking at the replay.
Friday’s race was intended to award 20-10-6-4-2 points to the top five finishers toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby via the Europe road. Even though Bergamasco moved into the lead in those standings, he was not among the early nominees for the U.S. Triple Crown. Of the three Patton horses, only Navy Seal was nominated, and he stands ninth in Europe qualifying.
I understand the push to make the Derby a global race but…what are we doing?
Out in California, the Grade 2 San Felipe has been moved to Sunday due to massive rain in the forecast.
NYSOS, the easy winner of the Robert Lewis, is 1-5 on the morning line and looks like an easy winner. That’s my handicap of the race.
Of course, he is not eligible to make the starting gate on the First Saturday in May, thanks to CDI’s banning of trainer Bob Baffert from Derby 150.
And I understand not running against him - the points don't just go to the next horse after Nysos. Or the other two Baffert horses entered in the five-horse field. Also ineligible.
This is a 50-point race. We have five horses entered. And three can’t run in Derby.
Again…what are we doing?
I respect CDI’s call - Baffert should have been much more remorseful in the aftermath of Medina Spirit’s Kentucky Derby positive. This is on him.
But the reverb has a major effect on an important race on the Derby Trail.
That leaves us with three races on Saturday. Hats off to Gulfstream on a strong card for Fountain of Youth Day. Deep fields and competitive races all day.
In fact, let’s start there.
Grade 2 Fountain of Youth
Gulfstream Park
1 1/16 MILES
Win Contenders
The only horse making up any ground in the BC Juvenile was LOCKED. He was technically the beaten favorite in that race, but there were three horses all pretty close in odds.
Watching the race back a few times on prepping for last week’s Rebel, I thought given how wide he was and the face no one else was really moving late, it was not a bad effort. Timberlake’s win in that Rebel helps make that 94 Beyer legit. He’s reportedly working well and we know he can make a like run.
The horse the might have to run down is DORNOCH. The full brother of 2023 Derby Winner Mage is always bet at the windows. He’s quicker early than LOCKED, and given this track that will probably help. Very few knocks against him in here.
DORNOCH will likely be battling with another Todd Pletcher horse in here, SPEAK EASY. He was cross-entered in an allowance race at Gulfstream Friday (won in strong fashion by Conquest Warrior) but ends up with. Gets a nice rail draw and has early speed. I like the move from Todd - worst case you have a speed horse in here to soften up DORNOCH for LOCKED.
Underneath
I can’t make a case for VICTORY AVENUE in this race at this distance, but might be okay turning back at some point. REAL MACHO woke up in his last, wirh the help of a plus ride from Tyler Gaffalione. Could use under the logicals. DANCING GROOM is better than a lot of 30-1 shots - he should be coming late and could boost the trifecta.
The Call
The presence of SPEAK EASY will help set this thing up for LOCKED. I’m not going to be scared off by Fierceness bombing in the Holy Bull. Should get a good setup. I won’t be shocked when SPEAK EASY runs big here.
So Locked and Victory Avenue are scratched. Shoot.
Takes a lot of starch out of the race.
I’ll take SPEAK EASY with the inside draw and what should be a slightly better price over DORNOCH in what sets up as a match race now.
1-5-4
Grade 3 Gotham Stakes
Aqueduct
1 MILE
I need to get back to Aqueduct.
Win Contenders
Last year, SuperTrainer™️ Brad Cox used these secondary NY preps for his “B-team” Derby contenders. And it was pretty effective.
Slip Mahoney ran second in this race. Came back to run sixth in the Wood and then went on to run first and second in a pair of listed stakes in Kentucky.
In that same Wood Memorial, another Cox trainee Hit Show ran second before filling out the Super Hi 5 in the Derby.
I don’t know where JUST A TOUCH ranks in his barn of Derby Contenders, but he looked legit in his strong debut win at FairGrounds. The son of Justify was geared down late in that effort but looked the part (89 Beyer). Has to stretch out here but it’s still just a one-turn mile at Aqueduct. Given the buzz coming in, will not be shocked when he’s 9/5 in here.
There is rain in the forecast Saturday at The Big A, but that should not bother BERGEN. Three races, all good. Handled a wet track already. Does not need the lead. Rock solid contender in here and the second of four entered for Cox.
I’d like to believe EL GRANDE O is named after Boston radio legend Glenn Ordway, but I have no evidence to back that up. We picked The Big O in the Withers and watched him get snapped late after doing all the dirty work on the front end. Cuts back from a longer distance and is another that will be fine with a wet track.
DETERMINISTIC has some buzz coming into this race. Had trouble on debut at Saratoga and still got it done. That was at 7F so this is not a huge stretch out. Clement could have picked a softer spot for his much-anticipated return. A confident placing.
Underneath
MAXIMUS MERIDIUS is 2-2 on a wet track and the trainer has good numbers sprint to route. LIGHTLINE looks pretty versatile and has the benefit of four races without Lasix - horses can’t run in stakes races on that medication right now in North America…CAPITAL IDEA is the “other” Clement in here crushed maidens in the slop last time out. Maybe the one-turn mile is perfect for ELIMINATE?
The Call
This ends of being the best race of the day with the scratch of LOCKED at Gulfstream.
My heart says JUST A TOUCH is a freak and will run a huge race. My brain says BERGEN will be 2.5 to 3x the price and has run well without Lasix, on this wet track already. I’ll go with the better price on top. Fun race. SuperTrainer™️ exacta. Maybe even trifecta.
8-10-7-3
John Battaglia Memorial
Turfway Park
1 1/16 MILES
I don’t have a lot to say about this race. This is a slow bunch running on a synthetic race track that I don’t handicap much.
Do I think it will have any impact on Derby 150? No.
Does it look like a good wagering event? Also, no.
Thanks to Charles Simon for explaining that even though this is not a graded stakes race, Lasix is not permitted in order to accrue Derby Points. Seven of the twelve horses in the body of the field ran with Lasix last time out.
EPIC RIDE did not. He’s run three straight okay races on synthetic and is clearly the one to beat here. I’m not sure there is a compelling reason to bet against him.
BOLT AT MIDNIGHT woke up in his last race…with Lasix. Mick Ruis has done well with last-out winners.
Same deal for 8-1 BREAK OUT. Nice win on the turf at Gulfstream, but again with Lasix. At least you’re getting an okay price.
SuperTrainer™️ Cox has GETTYSBURG ADDRESS from the rail. That one looked loaded last out at Oaklawn behind horses but could not get there late. That was also on a wet track. Has never tried the synthetic.
One more for Cox on the outside in ENCINO, who looks too slow.
EPIC RIDE is the most likely winner and while I won’t bet much in this race, he’s my selection. BREAK OUT and GETTSYSBURG ADDRESS under in the exacta.
6-1-8
Was excited to see LOCKED come back to the races. Too bad. I’ll focus in on the late sequences at The Big A and in Florida.
I always point to the 2004 Fountain of Youth Stakes, which got me hooked on the sport. Read the Footnotes and Second of June throwing down in the late. Read the Footnotes getting there late.
Sadly, it’s finally gone from YouTube. If you have it, send it along.
Good luck if you’re playing. Safe trips for all.