Kentucky Derby Prepping 3.23.24

The start of three big weeks of Derby Preps. We like a price and some chalk.

“This is the least accomplished group of three-year-olds I’ve ever seen at this point.”

Those words from our friend Charles Simon this week, who along with Barry Spears, hosts the Going in Circles Podcast.

Set aside plenty of time because the duo regularly clocks in over two hours for their weekly episodes, but if you’re a racing fan it’s well worth it.

Chuck went on to lament the way three-year-olds are trained now heading into the Derby, with trainers and connections just trying to GET to the race, not actually WIN the race. Very interesting insight.

And with no real established form, combined with the volatility of horses at this age, it makes it THAT much harder as a handicapper both in these preps and eventually in the Kentucky Derby.

We’ll have to deal with that next three weeks, with major prep races scheduled each Saturday: horses in each race high on talent but light on experience.

The Louisiana Derby
1 3/16 miles
CNBC coverage starts 6 PM EST

A really nice card in New Orleans for the Louisana Derby.

Thanks to the added distance and timing from the Derby, this race has become a target for some major trainers.

Win Candidates
TRACK PHANTOM is stuck outside but is a deserving ML favorite. He runs fast, has a good foundation, and can make his own trip. Would not be shocked to see him get a slowish pace on the front end…but does he want this distance? The inability to finish last time looms here going longer.

At similar prices, I’d prefer CATCHING FREEDOM, who is also a player. He was tight between horses late but did have a shot last time in the Risen Star. Not much on the gallop out. Gets a fast track today and renowned SuperTrainer™️ Brad Cox gets Prat to ride.

We picked HALL OF FAME in the Risen Star and maybe the trip wasn’t great, but no real excuse. Maybe the wet track bothered the 1.4 million dollar son of Gun Runner? His race two back was super fast on Timeform figures and if you’re betting him today, you’re hoping last time was the track and the ‘bounce.’ Would want every bit of the 8-1 ML.

If you want to bet a deep closer, HONOR MARIE is for you. Just too far back last time. Gets a jockey change to a rider who has been pretty good at Fairgrounds this year. Second off the layoff and better trip…should be right there for an unknown trainer (at least to me).

Why can’t COMMON DEFENSE win this? He got a good trip last time hugging the rail vs. Timberlake, but that one might be the best of this crop. Should be able to sit just off the speed and shows two good works coming in.

The Others
TUSCAN GOLD is one of those talent v. experience horses we talked about. Tall ask to win from post-positon 10 (#1 TRIPLE ESPRESSO will scratch and go to the Jeff Ruby stakes). Connections are likely to be overbet.

Thought for sure AGATE ROAD would end up at Turfway but he stays here and I want no part of him…on the dirt. We’ll eventually see him back on the turf. How about the three-year-old turf race Derby Day at Churchill?

St 20-1, REAL MEN VIOLIN can spice up the trifecta. He’s been working with COMMON DEFENSE and had no luck in his Risen Star trip. Any improvement off his race last year at Churchill and he’s a player in the exotics. Think he’ll be more involved in the race early today.

The Picks
A tough race where a bunch of the contenders are hard to separate. I’ll land on COMMON DEFENSE at 6-1 or better. He was right there with Timberlake and distance should not be an issue. Do you really want 3-1 on TRACK PHANTOM OR CATCHING FREEDOM up top? I don’t.

10 - COMMON DEFENSE
2 - HALL OF FAME
5 - CATCHING FREEDOM
12 - TRACK PHANTOM

The Jeff Ruby Stakes
1 1/8 MILES
CNBC coverage 6 PM EST

I don’t spend much time playing races on synthetic, but I actually feel like I’m seeing this race pretty well. Unfortunately for us, it sets up for the favorite.

All three of LUCKY JEREMY, NORTHERN FLAME, and WEST SARATOGA are likely to battle on the front end here. It should create a decent pace and the Tapeta surface usually plays fair.

Of the three “speeds,” I’m most interested in NORTHERN FLAME, who battled Timberlake and Common Defense in the Rebel. If I had confidence he could rate, I’d pick him at 5-1.

But I don’t. And so my eye shows 5-2 ML favorite ENDLESSLY getting a great trip off the speed. He’s coming i’m off a stakes win on synthetic and has fast races on turf. He will be a short price, but a likely winner.

OTELLO for Christophe Clement is an interesting price. He got bumped pretty well early on in the Holy Bull and Clement has been good with horses on synthetic. At 15-1 would use underneath.

10- ENDLESSLY
5 - NORTHERN FLAME
8 - OTELLO
2 - DANCING GROOM

With snow on the ground and sleet on the way here in New England, a good day to stay inside and fire on basketball and horses today.

I’ll be taking a stand against North Carolina and playing Michigan State. Feels like a good day for a top seed to go down.

Safe trips for all. Good luck if you’re playing. Let me know who you like below or on X.com.