Kentucky Derby Prepping 3.29.25
The story of the day - and the Derby Trail - is a Bob Baffert horse with one career start running today in Arkansas
Bob Baffert’s Cornucopian crushed last Sunday in a MSW race at Oaklawn on Rebel Day. He got a 101 Beyer, a 108 on Equibase and a 125 on TFUS, making his race as fast as any race run by a three-year-old this year. Baffert, of course, trained Triple Crown winner Justify - that one broke his maiden in February of 2018. This guy cost over $1 million at auction and is bred to be a good one: he’ll have to be to make the Derby off just a MSW race and say, the Arkansas Derby. But it is Baffert…
I wrote this four weeks ago here in Derby Prepping, pointing out that this year’s Derby Trial was so lacking in any sort of star power (buzz, really) that a maiden winner going 6F was a big story.
Four weeks later, Bob Baffert’s Cornucopian is indeed the story of the weekend. He’s entered in the Arkansas Derby and has been installed as the 7/5 ML favorite off just one career race. His chances here have been the biggest story in horse racing this week as it pertains to the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
One reason is the aforementioned lack of a ‘buzz horse’ on this year’s Trail: people want to see a WOW performance this time of year, and we have not really gotten it. Journalism’s win in the San Felipe Stakes and subsequent strong workout stamp him as the clear favorite in my opinion, but people don’t seem excited about him. Maybe it’s because he’s based in California and doesn’t have a big-name trainer. But his 108 Beyer puts him atop any real Derby list, and that’s deserving.
The second reason is Cornucopian’s trainer, Bob Baffert. He trained the superhorse and Triple Crown winner Justify, who had just two career races before winning the Santa Anita Derby. He’d go on to win the Triple Crown. Fair or not, this one is getting Justify comparisons.
With Baffert’s three-year Derby ban over, he’s eligible to run this year and likely to have at least one horse in the field. But his Arkansas Derby runner has the most buzz of any horse this weekend - maybe even this spring.
Took two swings at two prices last week - Vassimo (14-1) is just too slow. He’s Not Joking (11-1) was terrible and deserved that DRF comment line, "Never a factor.” We’re back in the red for the season. Boo.
15: 5-3-2
$90 in // $86.52 out
-$3.48 (based on a mythical $2 WPS bet on our top pick)
-3% ROI
Florida Derby (GI)
Gulfstream Park • Hallandale Beach, FL, USA 100-50-25-15-10
6:42 PM EDT
FanDuel TV, CNBC
It feels like this field has five contenders and five also-rans.
#2 Cool Intentions, #3 Smoken Boy, #5 Indecisiveness, #6 Jimmy’s Dailys and #7 Enterdadragon are the outsiderrs. Jimmy’s Dailys looks talented but also looks like a sprinter. Enterdadragon has a sharp trainer, but this is a tall ask, and his one dirt race was bad. He broke in at the start in that race but it was not that bad.
#1 Neoequos ran third in the Fountian of Youth and was on the pace. While there were only five dirt races that day, note that NO horses that were on the lead at the half-mile marker held on to win. This guy held third that day and came back with a big work on March 16. His trainer had been known to win with a price; he has speed and the rail, and maybe the track was against his last time. Maybe I’m telling myself a story, but this guy will be on the bottom of tickets and a backup in any horizontal plays. A player.
#4 Disruptor has just two career races but is 4-1 in this spot. The $1.15 million son of Gun Runner should be fine stretching out, but note that while Todd Pletcher is good with three-year-olds going sprint to route on the dirt (24%), that number drops to 8% (2 for 24) in graded stakes races. Pletcher is still looking for his Derby Horse, and owner Mike Repole will be watching closely with his St. John’s team bounced from the NCAA Tournament. Tough read here.
#8 Madaket Road ran pretty big to set the quick pace and then hold second in the Rebel. His March 16th work was strong, and Baffert sees fit to take the blinkers off here - he’s 4 for 10 with similar moves the last five years. If Mike Smith can get him to settle early, he could be there at the wire.
I like #9 Tappan Street. I thought he ran just as well as Burnham Square in the Holy Bull given his inexperience. He beat Multiverse in his debut and that one came came right back to win then almost won a stake, catching a 90 Beyer. He has a big closing kick, but he also has the speed to stay involved early. Super Trainer™️Brad Cox is taking his time with this guy and he’s been working well with the talented Saudi Crown. Has a shot today and one to think about for the remainder of 2025.
We picked #10 Sovereignty last time and got paid at almost 3.5 to 1 - no such luck on the price here. That was a significant effort off the layoff for Bill Mott, and he’s already got enough points to line up in the Derby starting gate. These outside posts at Gulfstream are challenging, even for closers. And if I think closers had an advantage in the Holy Bull, maybe this guy might be dressed up in this spot vs. this field. FWIW - Mott just 2 for 27 (7%) with three-year-olds on the dirt, going to route of ground, making second start off of layoff like this.
Colin Sheehan is a host on the Trust the Prophets Horse Racing Channel. He’s been on Sovereignty for months. I asked him what he thought about today’s race, knowing his ‘Derby horse’ already has the points to get into Derby 151.
“It's an interesting race today for a few reasons, and not winning isn’t a concern. For one, Sovereignty doesn’t need the points to qualify for the derby, and although winning the Florida Derby is a nice feather in the cap, it’s not the end goal.
It’s also interesting to see how he runs from the 10 post, a post at a mile and an eighth that has not been kind to past runners at Gulfstream. For Sovereignty, it shouldn't be as big a problem as he can drop back, save ground, and make his big run. But with it being a “disadvantage,” I’ll be looking to see how he handles some adversity because we know on Derby day that’s what he will face.
Lastly, he doesnt have his normal rider Junior Alvarado aboard. It will be interesting to see how he responds under someone unfamiliar with him. Some may question the quality of the field, but there are enough variables here to provide a test within the race, regardless of the ultimate result.
At the end of the day, I’m looking for him to show the ability to move thru traffic late and display that big stride, eating up lengths on the competition in the stretch with a solid top-three finish, which would satisfy my desire for him to remain my derby horse.”
Appreciate the thoughts from Colin. You can watch his shows on YouTube at this link. I do.
I like Bill Mott. I like Sovereignty. I’ll be happy to consider him in the Derby, but not at 8/5 today. I’ll take Tappan Street and hope that the talent Cox apparently sees is able to shine through at close to that 5-1 ML. The price play will be Neoequos - if he can set a sensible pace, he can hit the board at 10-1. Upgrade that one if speed is a plus today at Gulfstream.
9-10-1-8
Arkansas Derby (GI)
Oaklawn Park • Hot Springs, AR, USA 100-50-25-15-10
7:48 PM EDT
FS1, FanDuel TV, CNBC
All eyes on #9 Cornucopian. Johnny V gets aboard, and the task should be simple - break clean and get to the front. The nice thing about most of these Baffert horses is that there’s not much guessing about the plan. Based on his first race and recent workouts (he looked much better than another Baffert horse, Barnes, on March 17), this guy is ready to run a big one. Yes, he’s short on experience, but note that Baffert is a guady 32% (11 for 34) going MSW win right into a stakes race the last five years. The one to beat.
And what’s great about this post is the only other speed, #5 Speed King, drew inside. So if that one wants to go, Johnny V can sit right off and stalk for the outside - that’s actually been a good trip this meet at Oaklawn. I suspect Speed King will go here after trying to rate last time, and there’s a world in which he could be in the mix late at 15-1. Maybe he and the Baffert are 1-2 around the track?
I like #6 Sandman. He’s going to come with a run, and he’s had some excuses. I expect he’ll make a run here again but based on the pace numbers, he’ll be last early.
The best story of the Derby Trail season is probably #8 Coal Battle. Trained by the little-known Lonnie Briley, this guy just wins. He’s 5 for 5 on dirt, and he’s shown the ability to either play on the lead or come from off the pace. Should be able to sit just off the two speeds and will be in range late…I just don’t know if he’s good enough as they stretch out again.
Trainer Steve Asmussen went on Steve Byk’s show last week and told everyone that Tiztastic would win the LA Derby- he was right. He went on this week and said #3 Publisher would win here. Blinkers on in this spot has not been a good move (0-9, just one in the money). Wet track would good for him and Prat aboard is interesting…but not for me.
#7 Monet’s Magic is 20-1 for a reason, but he had two good races before a tough trip in the Southwest. For the bottom of trifecta tickets.
I’m buying the hype. I think Cornucopian is talented and drew great in this spot. Can take off from the bell or sit off Speed King. He’s my pick. I can see Speed King getting into the exacta here and happy to play some 9-5s. Sandman has a solid foundation and a check here probably gets him into the Derby for Mark Casse.
9-5-6-7
Five weeks from the Derby…let’s go!
Good luck if you’re playing today and safe trips for all.
