Kentucky Derby Prepping 3.30.24

A Saturday morning Prep winner from Japan. Two big preps await Saturday.

Photo by Keith Luke on Unsplash

I’ve written this before, but I fell in love with racing through betting: through the puzzle of handicapping. It’s a great exercise that makes you think and hopefully pays you out when you do the work. Or come up with a wild idea. At least that’s the goal.

And through that puzzle, I’ve been lucky to see horses like Gun Runner (above) dominate on the race track. Seeing the brilliance of a great horse is worth the price of admission.

Maybe on Saturday, the winner of the Florida Derby will put on a show. Or the Arkansas Derby winner shows signs of that aforementioned brilliance. That would be great.

Because as far as handicapping goes, I did not find these races very interesting.

Spoiler - some really chalky handicapping below. My apologies for this price-hunting today.

We are 35 days out from Derby 150 and I don’t think there is a single horse I want to bet in America’s most famous race. That’s probably a good thing, as falling in love with a horse five weeks out from the race is usually not great.

Was texting with some racing degens Friday night as the NCAA Brackets burned down with upsets galore. I mentioned one of the horses running this weekend (don’t worry Ron, I won’t give away your pick).

“Good, that’s my Derby horse.”

I was envious. I have ZERO conviction at this point.

I’m hopeful someone steps up one of these races.

We saw a very good effort from Japan’s Derby hope FOREVER YOUNG, the winner of the Saturday morning UAE Derby.

Wide throughout, really wide, and able to power home. On the first watch, a nice effort.

I don’t know what he beat, but he’s going to be bet in the Derby. Probably a top three or four choice on the ML at this point. Like most of the Japanese runners who have tried the Derby, I’ll probably let him beat me in five weeks.

Let’s see if any of the American hopefuls show something later today.

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The Florida Derby
6:42PM
CNBC/Peacock 6PM

All eyes are on the champ.

Win Contenders
FIERCENESS is the most interesting horse running in any Derby prep this weekend or next. Ran big in the BC Juvenile and looked every bit of 1 to 5 in the Holy Bull. And just completely no-showed. Trainer Todd Pletcher gave a few potential excuses a few weeks ago.

“I thought he trained great leading up to the Holy Bull. I don’t think he needed a race. I think our expectations were so high for him that maybe we’re not looking at it realistically. If you watch the start of the race, he got slammed pretty hard from both sides. Johnny [Velazquez], in order to execute the game plan, had to use him pretty hard to get to the first turn in the position we wanted to,” Pletcher said. “He could have been a little rusty off the layoff, even though he was training great. He was topweight. [There are] a lot of subtle excuses that for an ordinary horse, you would try to justify it. In his case, he trained to well and we expected so much of him, sometimes you think he can overcome everything.”

And watching the head-on via the NYRABets Replay Center…Todd is right. FIERCENESS takes two bumps out of the gate, one from each side. Then has to lean on a horse to get outside going into the first turn.

He used a lot of energy going into that turn and might have been enough to empty him out into the lane. The top two in that race might also be pretty good.

FIERCENESS has been training well since. Very well according to the clockers. I understand if the connections are confident based on the trouble early last time, the talent he showed last year and well, the lack of overall talent in this year’s group, at least to this point.

Our friend and FanDuel/NBC analyst Matt Bernier has been on the CONQUEST WARRIOR train for a while now. He’s been visually impressive in his last two starts but the races have come back pretty pedestrian from a speed-figure standpoint. Feels like the ultimate wiseguy horse in here. He has to improve at least ten points on Beyer, right? Shug has shown confidence since day one.

HADES is a cool horse. Trouble in his debut but was able to win. In his last two has gone to the front and looked good doing it. There is some other speed on here so this will not be an easy task, but the trainer is confident.

“The way he’s training and what he’s doing for me right now, I’m going to be disappointed unless he wins because he’s just doing that well,” Orseno said Tuesday at Gulfstream Park.

HADES probably needs to run 1-2 to get the Derby points needed to qualify.

The winner - and maybe the 1-2-3 finish - is likely to come from this group.

For underneath
The only other horse on my radar here would be REAL MACHO. He was bet down to just 5-1 in a Fountain of Youth with just five runners. But he broke flat-footed and lost position into the first turn. Then got in a weird position between horses before fading in a race dominated on the front end. St 20-1 or so, would use underneath.

10-9-5-2 in the Florida Derby

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The Arkansas Derby
7:47EST
Coverage 7PM FS2 and FanDuel TV

The proverbial ‘two-horse race.’

Win Candidates
I have long thought that of what looks like a mediocre group, TIMBERLAKE might be the best three-year-old currently eligible for the Kentucky Derby. He’s fast, versatile, and has a good foundation going back to his two-year-old campaign. Maybe most importantly, he’s got SuperTrainer™️ Brad Cox getting him set for the race. He already has enough points for the Derby starting gate, so he doesn't need to win this race. But I’d like to see him improve his speed figures in this second race of the season, setting him up from a prime effort on the First Saturday in May.

If he gets beat, MUTH is the horse who will likely beat him. Trained by Bob Baffert and thus ineligible for Derby 150, MUTH has figs right the with TIMBERLAKE. I don’t think he’s faced much in his career out west. The BC Juvy effort was just fine - but we don’t know if that was a good field or race at this point. And this may seem dumb (I have a lot of dumb handicapping opinions, stay tuned), but I could see Baffert being more hungry to win this race given this guy can’t run in the Kentucky Derby.

He’ll also potentially get the jump on TIMBERLAKE here and should be more forwardly placed. Would use both as As in the multis.

For Underneath
Both TIMBERLAKE and MUTH will be chasing TIME FOR TRUTH, who could control this thing up front. Maybe the connections of MYSTIC DAN try to get involved more today? He’s 20th in the Derby standings and needs a placing to guarantee a spot in the field. The race hands out 100-50-25-15-10 points for first thru fifth, but MUTH will suck up any points he gets. Fourth for fifth might be enough, so why risk it? Sit and make one run, right? I’ll write it for the third time this season: JUST STEEL is a sprinter. LIBERAL ARTS could suck up for a piece.

The Pick
NYRA Bets has their Derby Bankroll builder for this race so I’ll be betting to win. Feels like a coin flip. Based on the Super Trainer™️ comments, I’m leaning TIMBERLAKE. Especially if he’s a better price than MUTH. But I could see that flipping.

2-7-4-9

Wish I had more conviction. Hopefully, today starts to clear up the Derby picture.

Good luck if you’re playing today. Safe trips for all.

Go Huskies.