Kentucky Derby Prepping 3.8.25
Thoughts on the Tampa Bay Derby, Thorpedo Anna's return and news around horse racing
The biggest race each year in America is undoubtedly the Kentucky Derby.
The most popular horse in America - Thorpedo Anna - will not be in the Derby starting gate this May. And while I’m not sure where exactly she’ll be running Derby weekend, you can find her this Saturday in Hot Springs, AR. The reigning Horse of the Year is set to launch her 4-year-old season in the 1 1/16-mile Azeri Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
While the NBA, NBA media, and basketball fans debate who the “Face of the NBA” is, there is no debating that Anna, “The Grizzly Bear,” is the equine face of horse racing in the United States.
There were fans in Saratoga on Travers Day just to see Anna take on the boys in the mid-summer Derby. A month later, she was the main draw on the Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion Day card at Parx. I saw dozens of people decked-out in some sort of Anna tee-shirt or outfit that morning in Pennsylvania, waiting for her to take the track later that afternoon.
Racing is a betting sport at its core. Without the bettors, there is no horse racing in North America. But you still need stars in the game. The Kentucky Derby is such an anticipated race each May, in part, because fans are hoping to see a star emerge from that year’s crop of three-year-olds.
Fierceness…Sierra Leone…White Abbario (maybe?): those are some of the bigger-named older horses that might have some recognition outside the bubble that is horse racing. Thorpedo Anna is a bigger name than all three of those combined.
Credit to trainer Ken McPeek for making sure fans knew when she was working out last summer at Saratoga: he’s done a good job in helping to make her a star,
She had a tremendous 2024 and was a deserving winner of the Horse of the Year title. But more important than that honor, she’s one of the few horses in training that by herself can get fans to the racetrack or to the closest screen to watch her do her thing.
As racing’s grip on the mainstream public continues to wane, stars like Anna are more important than ever for the sport.
🏇 This week, Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy announced a new name for the horses that run in his stable, Go Go Greys. The post announcing it over on X.com saw over 700K views.
While Anna might be the biggest equine star in racing, the most influential fan/bettor might be Portnoy. The founder of one of the biggest brands in America, Portnoy has long been a horseplayer. His videos on social media, going to big racing days (with his tag team partner Elio Imbornone) and betting on the races, are some of if not the most viewed in all of racing. When a grey horse wins, you can bet someone will post at Dave on X.com
As he’s made millions from Barstool and other ventures, Portnoy has invested in the sport, becoming an owner and supporting different racing charities and initiatives.
Tom Brady hanging out with owner Mike Repole and watching Mindframe dominate last week at Gulfstream was great to see - but it won’t push new fans into the game.
Portnoy promoting the sport will. I’m confident you’ll see plenty of that new “Go Go Greys” merch at a track near you come the spring meet at Keeneland. And for sure this summer at Saratoga. And many of those trackgoers will be there for the first time, following the Barstool/Portnoy lead.
In fact, I think you’ll see this as soon as next week, when his friend Elio is set to play in one of the two biggest handicapping tournaments of the year, the NHC in Las Vegas. If he makes a deep run into Sunday, the third and final day of the event, it will be the most talked-about NHC in recent memory.
And it would be good for the sport - just like Anna’s return to the track on Saturday.
🏇🏻 I’m taking this as a good sign for horseplayers. Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve received a pair of survey requests from DK Horse - the DraftKings horse betting platform.
The questions have been focused on what’s important to the horseplayer when it comes to betting on the DK Horse mobile app. These have been lengthy surveys that seem designed to help create a better app for the horseplayer.
I don’t think they’re doing this out of the goodness of their heart - they’re trying to make money! And if they can convert, say, a NYRA Bets user over to DK Horse - well maybe that person will find their way over to the DraftKings sportsbook app. Or the DraftKings Pick 6 games. Or in some states, the DraftKings casino.
But I don’t care why they’re doing it; I’m just glad they are. When you look around the industry, you can count on one hand the groups (ADWs included) that prioritize the player. More rebates, more free tools to wager and free past performances should all be initiatives we should be pushing for as horseplayers.
Hopefully these DK Horse player surveys are a sign that DraftKings is looking to give us a better place to bet - that would be a welcome change of pace from the rest of the industry.
What app do you use to bet on horses? Comment below and let me know.
🏇 In my lifetime as a horseplayer, the best track announcer will always be Tom Durkin. No one will top him, ever. The best.
In that next group is the longtime voice of Del Mar, Trevor Denman.
Denman, 72, announced his retirement this week. Per the release, his retirement is effective immediately, meaning Denman will not call this summer at Del Mar, or any future Breeders’ Cups.
Jasom Beem, the very good announcer at Tampa, noted this week how race callers of the past had their own distinct voices and character. Denman certainly did, with his signature “they hit the wirrrree toogetherrrrr” my favorite.
He, like Durkin, told a story with his calls. And his voice will be greatly missed this summer at Del Mar.
A strong weekend for the Derby Prepping picks with two winners and a runner up. As such, we find ourselves in the black with an 11% ROI through 11 prep races.
11: 4-3-2
$66 in // $72.92 out
+6.92 (based on a mythical $2 WPS bet on our top pick)
Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby
1 1/16th miles on the dirt
FS2 and FanDuel TV (5:34 PM)
Just one race this weekend and a smaller group, so let’s take a look at the entire field.
#1 Owen Almighty (5-1) - Battled on top of a fast pace last time in the prep for this, only to get run down late by a Brad Cox trainee. Is quick enough to be involved early and might actually get a target to run at with Broduer in here. Speed has been good at Tampa - that helps - as does getting Irad here. We might even get Irad at a price. A player for the top spot and a good price.
#2 Chancer McPatrick (8/5) - The G1 Hopeful winner makes his 2025 debut after a wide trip in the BC Juvenile. I’m putting him in the winner’s circle by saying this, but I want no part of him today. I’m sure there have been some comparisons to Sierra Leone, who returned as a three-year-old equipped with blinkers for trainer Chad Brown and won the Risen Star to launch a strong 2024 campaign. But Sierra Leone only had a 70-day break on that spot - this return off a 127-day break is rare for Chad under these conditions (0-2 last five years). Blazing Sevens whiffed on a similar return a few years ago. Not sure he wants two turns, is a closer on a track playing to speed and he’s coming off a big layoff…pass for me.
#3 Hill Road (4-1) - See above - this guy has the same layoff issues as Chancer. Ran on late in the BC Juvenile, but there’s some evidence that track was helpful to closers. Not sure how to evaluate him off that effort when he had two turf races before that. Dirt pedigree, sure, but a true wild card. The late-running style will not help him here. Handicapper Barry Spears thinks he’ll be closer to the pace today...we’ll see. That could/would help him here.
#4 Broedur (15-1) - Know him early as his speed should ensure an okay pace here. But he has not faced much in his career and is light on figures. Maybe hangs around for a piece if he’s able to set a sensible tempo and the speed is strong on the Tampa dirt on Saturday.
#5 Filoso (15-1) - Another closer on a track that has played to speed. Returns with blinkers for a trainer that I don’t bet often…well, at all. This guy did beat American Promise to break his maiden at Saratoga last August.
#6 Naughty Rascal (20-1) "- “Beat” Owen Almighty when that one got DQ’d back in January. Also beat the talented Rookie Card in that spot. Is probably up against it here, but was on that pace last time. Hard to make a very compelling case.
#7 Patch Adams (2-1) - There he is! SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox tries to get Patch Admas back on track after a trip in the Southwest. Battled in a tough duel on debut before coming back to crush in his second start. Add in that last start and this guy has really done nothing wrong in three starts. Fast enough early to get the lead or stalk the leaders outside. Numbers are right there and with a good trip, can take the feature at Beemer Bay.
Chad Brown has 18 entries on the Tampa card on Saturday: he’s going to win multiple races. I’m hoping - and betting - that this is not one of them. Both his horses will be coming off huge layoffs, closing on a track that favors speed and are going to get bet.
Owen Almighty and Patch Adams look primed for big efforts. I’ll be using both as As in the Late Pick 5, but for pick purposes, I’ll take the better price of Owen Almighty. I also like the experience he has over the track and the inside post. I’m guessing one of the two Chad runners comes flying for third. 20-1 Naughty Rascal would be my “price” use if playing deep tris or supers.
1-7-2-6
Back next week to handicap a new race on the Derby Trail, the Virginia Derby at Colonial. Word is a nice group will line up for the one-turn, nine-furlong race.
Good luck if you’re playing and safe trips for all.
Were you down at Colonial last week? If you were why didn't you stop up to the press box?
I play on BetAmerica which is now TwinSpires