Kentucky Derby Prepping 4.20.24
Some still way too early thoughts on Kentucky Derby 150. A big question looms.
Going back through the races we wrote up here at StackCapping during the Kentucky Debry Prep season, a few things stand out.
After whiffing on the Withers Stakes and Southwest Stakes back in February, we had the winner of every other Derby Prep mentioned as a “win contender” in every Derby Prep preview. We did not get rich off all those winning ideas because ⬇️⬇️⬇️
We had a bunch of logical favorites win the Preps this year and
Some of the horses that ran underneath were impossible for me to come up with.
There was a real lack of brilliance in this group through this Prep season. Some nice winners for sure, but not much “wow” factor.
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The “great” performances?
Fierceness in the Florida Derby
Nysos in the Robert Lewis
Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass
Forever Young in the UAE Derby
I think that’s it.
So, it’s no surprise that those horses above, minus the injured/ineligible Nysos, will be the top three betting choices in Derby 150.
SIERRA LEONE is the listed favorite in a few of the UK Betting Markets. You can bet the Derby futures anytime there, unlike here where it’s mostly limited to the various Debry futures pools and maybe a few spots in Vegas that have it open all the time.
But it’s wildly frustrating that the UK has better options to bet on the Debry futures than we do in the United States. It’s 2024 - every commercial sportsbook or ADW should offer Debry odds on every horse from Jan 1st through the Derby. Why is that so hard? “All other three-year-olds” should not be an option. That’s archaic. And maddening. /rant
Anyway, SIERRA LEONE is 5/2 in a couple of international markets. His only loss came when he lost focus late at Aqueduct. He’s had a big closing kick but that’s the knock - a closer needs a lot of luck to win the Kentucky Derby. Many more things can go wrong in the back of the field vs. sitting up front.
Pace, traffic and post position will all be important. There’s also his pre-race antics from the Blue Grass win, where his trainer said something in the crowd spooked him going into the gate. The Derby crowd > Blue Grass crowd, so that might be an issue.
Very talented but has some potential issues.
FOREVER YOUNG is the consistent third choice in the International Markets at 8-1. He showed real ability in his wide UAE Derby win. And it feels like Japan has had a great run of talented dirt hoses. But like Sierra Leone, some issues.
There have been 19 winners of the UAE Derby that have tried the Kentuck Derby - all 19 have finished off the board. History is not on his side.
He was purposely kept wide that day in the UAE Derby because the horse does not like kickback. In that race, he wore a special earless hood, to soften the blow of getting dirt in his face.
He’s undefeated. He’s talented. He’s fast. But can he avoid kickback with 19 other horses lined up going a mile and a quarter in his first race in the United States? And will he run his best race dealing with any kickback? Might be asking a lot, at under 10-1.
And then there is FIERCENESS. He has two big races - the Florida Derby and last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s fast enough and quick enough early to be on the lead or just off of it. He’s already getting huge workout buzz - the DRF headline of “Fiernecness continues to train like a powerhouse” got right to the point Friday.
His Champagne loss last year is easy to forgive - slow start, checked, wide on a wet track. If I were a better handicapper, he would have been an autobet in the BC Juvy.
His Holy Bull loss this year…that’s the issue. He no-showed. But it’s worth revisiting what trainer Todd Pletcher said after that race and going into his blowout win in the Florida Derby.
“I thought he trained great leading up to the Holy Bull. I don’t think he needed a race. I think our expectations were so high for him that maybe we’re not looking at it realistically. If you watch the start of the race, he got slammed pretty hard from both sides. Johnny [Velazquez], in order to execute the game plan, had to use him pretty hard to get to the first turn in the position we wanted to,” Pletcher said. “He could have been a little rusty off the layoff, even though he was training great. He was topweight. [There are] a lot of subtle excuses that for an ordinary horse, you would try to justify it. In his case, he trained to well and we expected so much of him, sometimes you think he can overcome everything.”
If you’re willing to draw a line through that race, like Pletcher was, he is and should be the prohibitive favorite in Derby 150.
FanDuel published their early odds for the Derby on Friday and they seem to agree.
Unlike the International Market, FanDuel makes FIERCENESS the clear favorite. And I think they’re right. People will see that gaudy 110 Beyer Speed figure and the big workout reports. And they’re going to bet him.
Two weeks out from Derby 150, this feels like this big question you have to start considering as a handicapper:
Are you with FIERCENESS or against him?
Right now, I’m probably with.
Still a lot of work to be done between news and workouts, post position etc. But if you’re willing to forgive that one bad race in the Holy Bull and factor in running style and the history of horses from the UAE Debry, I’d take FIERCENESS at 2-1 vs SIERRE LEONE at say 4-1 and FOREVER YOUNG at 8-1.
FWIW, over the last 10 years, the average winning Beyer Speed figure in the Derby is roughly 102. Only one horse in the field, FIERCENESS, has ever run that high of a figure. Mystic Dan is the only other horse who has been into the triple digits, getting a 101 in his Southwest win back in February.
Would I bet betting to win at 2-1? Unlikely. But there will be other ways to leverage that opinion to make money on Derby Day. Not married to this idea and he is not my official pick, but that’s where I’m at two weeks out.
Outside of SOCIETY MAN at 106-1 in the Wood Memorial, I didn’t do a great job of finding those “underneath” horses in the Derby Preps. With two weeks to go, some of those that look interesting. Again, this is very early.
SOCIETY MAN - Will be a huge price in the Derby and might just be getting into his best form. Thought he looked better than stablemate DORNOCH Saturday in the Derby works. Has the positional speed to avoid being shuffled back early. Might be able to grind his way into a Top 4 finish.
RESILIENCE - Winner of that Wood Memorial and should have no problem getting the distance of the Derby. That Risen Star keeps looking better and better.
JUST A TOUCH - That was not a bad second in the Blue Grass. Tons of talent but only three races under his belt. SuperTrainer™️ Brad Cox seems high on his chances to run a big race at somewhere near 20-1. Expect many comparisons to last year’s Derby winner, the lightly-raced Mage.
What to think about DOMESTIC PRODUCT? Last seen two months ago winning a Tampa Bay Derby no one could bet on because of a tote malfunction. That race came back very slow (82 Beyer) and I don’t like the layoff into the Derby. To win? No way. In the trifecta at 30-1? Maybe. Will be very interested in the workout reports.
It’s a lot easier to find horses in this field I don’t like vs. finding ones I want to bet on, which might be another way to look at the race over the next few weeks.
You can sift through the Derby Prep charts and replays for free at DRF.com.
Finalizing plans now but planning a very busy Derby 150 Week. It would be nice to tout the winner, but making money on Derby Day is much better. And that will be the goal - for all of us to get paid on the First Saturday in May.
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Comments open below for your Derby longshot ideas.