Kentucky Derby Prepping 4.5.25
Two big Prep races Saturday. Another bad look for horse racing.
Well, this was a new one.
When you hear people (like me) suggest that horse racing is not a serious sport, this is what they (we) mean.
Of course, it’s the second time in five months that they had to cancel at the Big A thanks to issues next door at the Resorts World Casino. From October -
The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) has canceled Friday’s nine-race card at Belmont at the Big A, due to an ongoing maintenance issue at Aqueduct Racetrack in Ozone Park, N.Y.
Earlier Friday, Resorts World Casino treated the roof with a product that has created air quality issues on the building’s top floor which is occupied by live racing officials. As a result, Friday’s card is canceled in its entirety.
From the outside, it seems kind of silly, I know. But the people who make the sport go - the bettors and the owners - got royally stuck here. The owners entered their horses, only to be told there was no racing because of LOUD MUSIC. And the bettors who spent time and money handicapping the card and putting in the work had no races to bet.
There are plenty of other examples showing the sport is not serious, like the note from Sam Houston racecaller and sharp horseplayer Nick Tammaro this week.
He was a guest on Steve Byk’s show and suggested that “50-60%” of the total handle at Sam Houston is being bet by the Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) groups. He used an example of a horse going into the gate at 5-2 and going off at 2-5. That’s insanity. This is in addition to the fact that because Sam Houston is not part of HISA, you can’t bet their races online. Bad stuff all around.
But this one—the races being canceled because a major race track could not communicate with its casino neighbors and the music was too loud—needs to be pointed out as another silly moment for the Sport of Kings.
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Did we give out the ice-cold superfecta in the Florida Derby here last week?
I like Bill Mott. I like Sovereignty. I’ll be happy to consider him in the Derby, but not at 8/5 today. I’ll take Tappan Street and hope that the talent Cox apparently sees is able to shine through at close to that 5-1 ML. The price play will be Neoequos - if he can set a sensible pace, he can hit the board at 10-1. Upgrade that one if speed is a plus today at Gulfstream.
9-10-1-8
It looks like we did! Ice-cold super in the Florida Derby. Thanks for the DMs, texts, and messages here. It's a nice result. I should have played the Super Hi-5, as my five contenders ran in my 1-2-3-4-5 order. I'm still down for the season on the Derby Trail, so I should probably shut up now.
17: 6-3-2
$102 in // $99.72 out
-$2.28 (based on a mythical $2 WPS bet on our top pick)
-2%
UAE Derby Instant Reaction
So they just ran this race as part of the Dubai World Cup.
Luxor Cafe didn’t run in this race, but his form was flattered when two horses he beat handily last time - Admire Daytona and Don in the Mood - ran first and third in this race Saturday morning.
There appears to be a very strong rail today on this track, so I don’t know what to make of the results other than to say that they make Luxor Cafe look like a more interesting Derby prospect, should he make the trip from Japan. I hope he does.
I thought the Heart of Honor ran a big race just to get beat and run second.
Flood Zone, who upset the Gotham Stakes last time, did no running at all and is likely out of any Derby picture. His result might also change your opinion of the Gotham and, in turn, some of the runners in today’s Wood Memorial.
I don’t think we saw the Derby winner in this race.
Wood Memorial (GII)
Aqueduct • New York, NY, USA 100-50-25-15-10
April 5, 2025 | 6:10 PM EDT
FS2, FanDuel TV
This is a fun race.
Note that some rain is in the forecast today in Ozone Park, NY, but we’re expecting a fast track. Looking at the Track Trends, there does not appear to be a consistent bias on wet tracks this season at the Big A. But if you notice one today, respond accordingly.
Sharp move by Bob Baffert to ship #1 Rodriguez here to NY. He’s run pretty well in all four of his career starts against the best horses in California. He deferred the lead to stablemate Barnes last time and ended up between horses for much of the race early on. Journalism went right by him and Citizen Bull like it was a walk in the park, but he might be really good. I don’t like the idea of him passing horses, but if Mike Smith sends from the rail, maybe he could wire here. Player.
Who else is going to press early? #5 Sand Devil stumbled last time, grabbed the lead, then saw 17-1 Flood Zone go by late. With a clean break, I’m betting this one is involved from the bell. I wonder if the added distance might be an issue for this son of Violence. Price will be okay, but this guy may be headed for a cutback. I liked this Linda Rice trainee a little more before Flood Zone bombed in the UAE Derby.
#7 Grande is also likely to be part of the pace here. I feel the same way about this guy that I felt about Todd Pletcher’s Disruptor last week - there’s some talent there, but he’s faced no real competition in a pair of starts. I guess he could move forward, but a few of these would have to not show up for him to win it. And at 5-1? No thanks.
I am interested in #11 Statesman for Shug. He’s taken his time with this guy, and it’s paid off with back-to-back wins. But a few issues. 1. Like Grande, he’s faced no one. 2. His last two races have been with Lasix, which he won’t have today. The positive is that the distance should be no issue, he has a solid foundation under him, and he’s likely to make a run late. Enough to win? Doubtful. But he’s a player on the bottom of trifecta tickets, for sure. Maybe even exactas.
#12 Omaha Omaha is 25th in the current Debry Points standings, and I am 100% convinced they’ll take back, make a run, and try to run into the number late to get points and make the Derby starting gate.
The horse I’m going to pick is #2 Captain Cook. Visually, this guy has been very impressive to me over his last two starts. Last time going this same distance, he was parked three-wide off the speed. Manny Franco looked super confident going into the stretch, and this guy responded when challenged by Surfside Moon. He was accelerating away from that one at the end. The trainer has handled this one with uber confidence, and I’m expecting a big effort here today.
I can see Rodriguez and Sand Devil going at it early, giving Captain Cook a few targets. And if Grande gets involved, maybe the race is fast enough for the closers to be players late.
2-1-11-12
Note I had Sand Devil third here before the UAE Derby…I might be overreacting by putting him outside the Top 4.
Blue Grass (GI)
Keeneland • Lexington, KY, USA 100-50-25-15-10April 5, 2025April 8, 2025
It was a tough break for racing fans who planned a trip to Opening Weekend at Keeneland, as Friday and Saturday’s cards were moved to Monday and Tuesday. Based on the rainfall in the last 72 hours, they made the right call.
I’ll be handicapping this race in video form on Tuesday morning and will post that video in the Substack Notes. You’ll also find it in the new “Video” tab on the SubStack App, which is pretty cool. Just have to be subscribed.
The Blue Grass is being run on a Tuesday - also pretty cool.
Santa Anita Derby (GI)
Santa Anita Park • Arcadia, CA, USA 75, 37.5, and 18.75 (only five runners)
April 5, 2025 | 7:46 PM EDT
FanDuel TV, CNBC
Quick rant before my actual rant.
Note to the Daily Racing Form,
I am a consumer of your products, including the Clocker Report. On a day like today, when you offer works for Santa Anita, they should 100% include a horse like Rodriguez, who has been training at Santa Anita but is running in the Wood in New York. Your clocker has those works; just include them in the Santa Anita works! This happens all the time and is silly, especially in 2025. I might even send an email to customer service. Who knows?
Signed,
Your Pal Mut
Anyway, the actual rant. This is an important race. But having two trainers training four of the five entrants is a brutal scene for handicappers.
The story of the race is #1 Journalism. He was able to sit off a pair of Bob Baffert horses in the San Felipe, only to power home like a good one late. I am no workout expert, but his work on March 22 looked like a “wow” work and signals he’s coming into this one strong. That San Felipe was fast on every speed figure and with a similar trip to last time, he’s the winner here today. A big win here stamps him as the clear Derby favorite.
He ran down #3 Barnes in that one. Then Barnes got outworked by Cornucopian, who ran that silly race in Arkansas. Now Barnes’ other stablemate, #2 Citizen Bull, is showing up here. Both horses want to be on the lead. Citizen Bull already has enough points to get into the Derby - Barnes does not. Barnes does seem natually faster early so maybe he goes and they try rating Citizen Bull today?
Maybe a clue from some good reporting by Brad Free in the Daily Racing Form:
Citizen Bull’s pace rival in the Santa Anita Derby is stablemate Barnes, an impressive sprint winner in his first two starts. His stock dropped after he finished second to Journalism in the two-turn San Felipe. Baffert changed equipment on Barnes and removed blinkers in workouts, trying to teach him to ration his speed.
The works without blinkers did not go well. Barnes was outworked March 17 and March 23. Baffert re-equipped Barnes with blinkers for a Monday work. He settled behind a sacrificial workmate and then blew past.
So they put the blinkers back on Monday and still had him rate. It's a tough call, but maybe that’s the plan again on Saturday. Citizen Bull is a good horse, and a win here might make HIM the Derby Favorite. Tough if he’s able to cruise on the lead…
BUT, then you have the other two horses in the race, the same guy, John Shirreffs, also trains THEM BOTH. #5 Baeza has real talent but probably wants to stalk. So is his other horse #3 Westwood in there to try and soften up the Baffert speed early? Or is he in just to help fill the race? Maybe both?
Given all that, it’s hard to risk big money here: there are too many annoying variables.
I’m hoping we see Journalism and Citizen Bull throw down in the lane. I’ll hope there’s enough pace to set it up for Journalism late. I’m tossing Barnes after all this blinkers on/blinkers off/bad works stuff, and I’ll play Baeza 3rd and hope the trips out - he’s one to think about for the Preakness if he comes up short here today.
1-2-5
Four weeks from the Derby - time to get to work. Back here in the SubStack notes to handicap the Blue Grass on Tuesday.
Good luck if you’re playing today and safe trips for all.