Kentucky Derby Prepping 4.6.24
Kentucky Derby Prepping 4.6.24
The last BIG Derby Prep day. A special guest to help us talk through the Wood Memorial.
I guess someone could use the Lexington Stakes to vault into the starting gate but for all intents and purposes, this is the end of the line for the Derby Preppers.
Last week’s races helped clear some things up.
Fierceness will be the Derby 150 favorite after his effort in the Florida Derby.
Timberlake, my tepid pick to win on the first Saturday of May, is OFF the Derby Trail. Probably a smart move.
Forever Young’s win in the UAE Derby will make him about 8-1 on Derby Day. Probably lower.
The headlines this week showed one of Bob Baffert’s owners filing an injunction against Churchill Downs to try and get Muth into the Derby. It’s not really worth commenting on as it will never happen. But Baffert’s owners had a chance to transfer their horses to different trainers and chose not to. That’s on them.
Moving on.
We wrote about Keeneland reducing takeout on daily doubles for the spring meet - and the bettors responded. The pool was up 27.5% from last year’s opening day - $868,387 to $1,107,375. I got beat a nose in the finale for a decent double, but I’ll be back for more today.
Three Derby preps to discuss. Well, two and a half. The Santa Anita Derby is … rough.
We’ll start in NY with a special guest helping us try to find a winner in a 13-horse field at Aqueduct
Wood Memorial
Fox Sports 2
Coverage starts 1:30. Post time 4:07 EST
Ten years ago, Wicked Strong won the Wood Memorial. I liked Wicked Strong. Regrettably, that was probably my last winner in this race.
Saturday's Wood Memorial is long on entries and at least on paper, short on top-end talent.
Thankfully, we have a top-end writing talent to help us work through this race.
Chuck Simon is a former trainer, now turned racing media star. He writes candidly about the sport at Going in Circles Digest.
He’s also part of the launch of Racing Hub. And has a weekly podcast with former Central Catholic basketball star Barry Spears.
Here’s the plan - we'll go through the Wood Memorial field and try to find a winner. Maybe a price or two.
Okay, is the Derby winner in this field, Chuck?
Chuck: I am skeptical that the Derby winner is in this group, unless we are talking Ohio Derby.
Mut: Got it. Let's look at the field.
1. Resilience (6-1)
Mut: I'll say it - not impossible here. The fourth in the Risen Star doesn't look terrible when you consider who the top three finishers were. Can't imagine they want to go, so will likely save ground from the inside and try and be alive at the top of the stretch. Five solid works since the Fair Grounds effort. Again, not impossible.
Chuck: A little slow to develop but has a nice foundation and did well overcoming an outside post in the Risen Star to be a decent 4th. Like the inside draw, should get a nice trip and if he can improve with the added experience, might be a live contender at a solid price for top connections.
2. El Grande O (8-1)
Mut: I have a soft spot for this hard trier. Start number 12, Chuck! Will go to the lead but with other speed signed on, hard to endorse. The eventual cutback will be worth a play.
Chuck: Every year Linda Rice has a speedy but distance challenged NY bred that looks like they are gonna win one of these 3yo stakes but ultimately falters in the stretch. Last year it was Artic Arrogance, this year it’s El Grande O. Current favorite at the Going in Circles NY Derby at Finger Lakes future book but it’s fadesville in the Wood for me.
Mut: That's a great race to sponsor. And now with The Big A on the Finger Lakes mic!
3. Lonesome Boy (50-1)
Mut: I enjoyed my time at Parx this fall. That's all I have on his Philadelphia shipper.
Chuck: As far as I can tell, Lonesome Boy is the best son that the obscure Washington based sire Nationhood has ever produced.
4. Deterministic (7/5)
Mut: This just feels so anti-Clement I'm not sure what to think here. First try going two turns after beating a 'mid' group in the Gotham. I'm sure there is talent there but at 7/5, I'm going to be against on-top.
Chuck: No doubt this colt is talented but there was briefly talk that Clement would “train up” to the Kentucky Derby off of the win in the Gotham and my old school sensibilities meter was triggered directly off the charts! So far in his ‘two races separated by 7 months and a surgery’ career, he has proven that he can be a solid closing sprinter and can handle an off track. This isn’t exactly an all-star ensemble lined up against him but his dam was a turf sprinter, his sire isn’t exactly a strong stamina influence and there is a possibility that his late kick is a bit muted in a slower paced, two turn race. Plus he’s chalk and we are not fans of chalk.
5. Protective (30-1)
Mut: Showed some promise on debut - that was last July. Off eight months, had a very interesting trip last time at Tampa. Was the big favorite (3/5) for Pletcher/Reople. In tight and checked, lost to another Pletcher/Reople, that one 5-1.... Actually galloped out well past the winner. That's a lot of words to say this is a very tall task.
Chuck: I shall be protective of my bankroll by moving on quickly…
6. Evening News (20-1)
Mut: I am a crazy person for mentioning this, but his only dirt race came on a day when speed dominated the four dirt races at Ellis Park. Based on the synth races, I guess he's going to try and beat El Grande O to the front?
Chuck: If the connections felt the need to race on Wood Memorial Day, they should have entered in the previous race, the Bay Shore going 7f. As for the race they did choose, no clue what they are planning on doing though getting hot and dirty is most likely.
7. Merit (20-1)
Mut: Another who might be involved early? Like many in this Wood Memorial, speed figures say no real chance in this spot.
Chuck: Last year this trainer entered a horse in the Wood that appeared to have no chance, Lord Miles, and he won it at 10000000-1. I’m guessing that lightning won’t strike twice
8. Elysian Meadows (15-1)
Mut: Woefully slow on Beyer. First try at two turns and the best thing I can say is the horse didn't quit. Figures to make one run and try and get a piece?
Chuck: A bomb that will play underneath in exotics. Beyers are slow, other figures have him a touch faster and I like his pedigree stretching out and the switch back to Lezcano. In Mott we trust?
Mut: Great point about Mott even running here.
9. Tuscan Sky (4-1)
Mut: Another in this crop of three-year-olds that might have talent but is armed with no real experience. Got a good Beyer and strong TFUS figure in beating Nash last time. Will get a fast track for the first time, here. Obvious talent and is a win candidate, at what feels like a much shorter price than the 4-1 ML.
Chuck: I loved his debut where he raced greenly before powering away. Was more professional in the virtual match race with Nash who returned to cruise in an Oaklawn stakes. Still a tough ask for a horse whose experience is a 6f maiden in the mud and a 3 horse race and as you said, you aren’t likely to get much of a price. He is a serious horse IMO but he may be better off in the long run missing the grind of the Derby
10. Gettysburg Address (30-1)
Mut: Blinkers back on. Longshot trainer. Still not seeing it, even with the company he kept and slow start in the Smarty Jones.
Chuck: He is on the confederate side in this battle and we all know who won that war
11. Society Man (30-1)
Mut: Of the impossible horses on paper, this is my favorite. Troubled starts in back-to-back races, including a start in the Withers as a maiden. Then last time with Lasix, wins for fun at a mile on a wet track. Now no Lasix and back to a mile and an eighth. What a wild ride. Kind of rooting for him but no chance, right?
Chuck: Trainer Gargan’s “other Good Magic” with his big horse by that stallion, Dornuch running in the Bluegrass today. His last was good but one turn, not two, might be his game.
12. Deposition (50-1)
Mut: No shot. But since I have an expert here, when you enter a horse in a big race like this, are the owners guaranteed good seats? A nice luxury box? Buffett? Is that why some horses get entered in these races? This is not reflective of Uriah St. Lewis - who has upset some big races on the NY circuit. But in general...if I enter a horse in a big spot do the owners get the red carpet treatment?
Chuck: I will wait till Uriah moves this one to the weeds before I take my chance with him. As to your question outside of the Kentucky Derby (everybody pays at Churchill Downs) yes you will generally get accommodations of some sort. I actually entered a filly on the Preakness undercard in a grass stakes with zero intention on running as her owner wanted to go to the race and figured out that the entry fees were cheaper than buying a table in the turf club that day. The funny thing is that it was when ESPN was still doing coverage and Randy Moss called that morning to ask about her because he was going to make her the Budweiser longshot for that race. I told him “well I have bad news…I’m looking at her in her stall right now and we are in Louisville not Baltimore…”
In this case, I don’t know if good seats exist at the Big A anymore and I can guarantee no luxury boxes but they might get a handful of free drink tickets to use in the casino
Mut: This is why you're a media star.
13. Uncle Heavy (8-1)
Mut: Nice PA bred. Brutal post. Posted eighth of nine in back-to-back starts so maybe not a complete disaster. Butch Reid is a trainer who has earned my respect and money over the years. Think he'll be coming at the end for sure. But that post, Chuck…
Chuck: I was dead wrong about him last time, Butch Reid is a very good trainer and when he ships, you best pay attention. The post is an issue though and I’m not thrilled with the layoff to be frank. I regularly rant about this during Derby trail season but one of my biggest pet peeves is that trainers don’t prep their horses hard enough. These days the trend is to do less with horses in general but the Kentucky Derby is such an outlier as a 20-horse, mile-and-a-quarter race, it just feels like if you aren’t dead fit, you are at a disadvantage. It’s difficult to get that extreme fitness without racing. As for this race, jockey Sanchez has his work cut out for him trying to carve out a trip that doesn’t include excessive ground loss. A few scratches wouldn’t hurt and if he can manage to get him in striking position, the colt does have a pretty strong closing kick.
Mut: RE: the training. Very interesting point and one I’ll have to factor into Derby 150. Okay, I know you don't tab winners and picks when you handicap these races at Going in Circles, but just between us, how might you go about betting this one given the odds we have now and no scratches...
Chuck: I don’t love anyone here though I do believe the favorites are somewhat vulnerable which usually presents wagering opportunities. If he is the right price (right around his morning line or higher) I’d probably take a stab at betting Resilience to win and trying to hook him up in exotics with the logicals, plus Elysium Meadows underneath. Appreciate the banter Mut!
Hopefully, we didn’t lead everyone to the poorhouse and we can do this again!
Mut: Well, you and I both liked Timberlake last week, and we knocked him right off the Derby Trail. So apologies to the connections, but based on the odds we have now and pre-scratch, RESILIENCE would be my top pick. I’ll really push TUSCAN SKY in the exacta. In some world where he’s 4-1, he would warrant a win bet. SOCIETY MAN and UNCLE HEAVY underneath in exactas, too. If I get beat with DETERMINISTIC at 7/5, so be it.
1-9-11-13
Thanks, Chuck. Follow him on X.com and make sure you subscribe.
Blue Grass
FanDuel TV coverage
Post time 5:52 EST
Win Candidates
I have never been DORNOCH’S biggest fan, but he caught the right group here. Should be able to clear this field early and take them a long way. Saez the right guy to have aboard for a trip like this. Very dangerous on the front end at what might be a fair price.
I picked JUST A TOUCH in the Gotham and watching the replay again Friday, it wasn’t a terrible effort. Was wide in his attempt to stretch out, but was still running at the end. There is talent here, plus SuperTrainer™️ Brad Cox is always dangerous. With every horse he enters. Seriously.
All eyes are on SIERRA LEONE here. Will get a dry track after two good, closing efforts in the slop and mud, respectively. Is the second choice in some Derby markets, but this dead closer will need some sort of trip. Again. There does appear to be plenty of speed pointing to the Derby. But today? Could see DORNOCH controlling up front and this one coming late. But too late. If he bombs here, the aforementioned FOREVER YOUNG could be the second choice in Derby betting…
The SuperTrainer™️ has one more in here, and ENCINO could win. Any progression off that Turfway win and he’s right there. Can he run on dirt? I have no clue, but it’s Brad Cox at a price in a field with only a few other real contenders. Do not toss out of any multi-race wagers. Please.
For underneath
BE YOU is going to take money here and I get it. Has taken a while to get here but look at the winners in his last few efforts - Conquest Warrior, Nash, Muth. Ran him in the Hopeful as a maiden. Nosed by Just Steele on debut. Very good company. But the two turns look like a major hurdle. We’ll look for the cutback.
Chad Brown has three in here, and TOP CONNOR could fill out the exotics. An aggressive move from Chad signals this one had talent. I half-wonder if he and GOOD MONEY are here to ensure a pace for SIERRA LEONE.
SIEZE THE GREY is too slow but will be coming late. Imagine a Derby with TWO horses for D. Wayne???
4-6-10-11
DORNOCH could get harassed early by either of the other Chad Brown horses. Legit concern. He could also coast on the front end at 3-1.
Santa Anita Derby
CNBC / Peacock
7:45 EST POST
This is a Grade 1 in name only. Yikes.
Win Candidates
Always a good idea to start with any horse in a race who has not only the fastest but also the second-fastest Beyer speed figure in the field. No imagination, but Baffert’s IMAGINATION is a standout here at a short price. Speed and pace advantage. Will try and take it to them from the bell and a likely winner.
STRONGHOLD feels like the only real challenger. Could not hang with Nysos three-back. Or WYNSTOCK in the last. But now he’s second off the layoff and should be able to stalk the leader into the lane.
For Underneath
It’s probably one of those two. WYNSTOCK might not have liked the mud last time and did have some traffic issues. But will he really be sent to battle his stablemate? Eh.
MCVAY had trouble in the first turn in the San Felipe. Two bullet works since then and did cost $1.25 million.
4-3-7-5
There’s a $3 PICK 3 that covers all three of these races.
I’d be fine playing it for fun, with a small ticket of 1,9/4,6/4 - trying to beat the ML favorites in the first two legs. And keying Baffert late. Maybe backup with 1,9/10,11/4.
A good day of racing to set us up for the Final Four Saturday night. Can you imagine not naming Dan Hurley coach of the year? A motivated UConn rolls tonight.
Good luck if you’re playing. Let me know who you like here or on X.com.