Pennsylvania Derby Day Stack 9.21.24

The filly Thorpedo Anna the star of a big day in PA

Reporting LIVE from Bensalem, PA...where the weather looks glorious and the track will be fast…it’s Pennsylvania Derby Day.

And the star of the show is a filly running in the Grade I Cotillion (Race 12).

Let’s start there with Thorpedo Anna, one of the most popular horses in training.

I have been lucky to meet some good friends through horse racing. Two of those booked their hotel rooms and planned to make the trip here the second the connections announced Anna was running here.

I’m sure they’re not alone.

Anna ran her eyeballs out in the Travers. Just an awesome performance coming up just short to Fierceness. Lost nothing in defeat. She’ll be every bit of 1/5 off the 4/5 ML, but I’m not trying to beat her here. She’s a standout on both class and speed. She can regress off that huge Travers effort and still win this.

Hats off to trainer Ken McPeek for showing her off in morning workouts this summer at Saratoga. There are just some horses that fans are drawn to, and Thorpedo Anna is one of them.

There are some similarities to the way John Servis understood 20 years ago that Smarty Jones was a horse that people loved and he embraced that. Ken McPeek appears to get it, too. She’ll have a massive fan club rooting her home Saturday at Parx.

I’ve been a fan since she made us look smart winning the Kentucky Oaks. Unless there’s some massive speed bias at Parx, she’s a stone single in all my bets. I’ll be one of the ones hoping she puts on a show.

If there’s an upset, maybe Mystic Lake wires them. Or maybe Gun Song gets a perfect trip off that one. Too many people like Sidamra, she’s going to be 5/2 in here.

But honestly? I’m rooting for Anna to crush here and hope the crowd goes crazy as she powers home in Bensalem.

6-8-7 if you care about my Top 3. The focus is Anna.

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In the Grade I Pennsylvania Derby (Race 13), I’m doing something I hate doing and picking a horse that so many other handicappers are tabbing on top that he can’t possibly win.

We’ll be lucky to get 3-1 on Unmatched Wisdom Saturday based on all the people picking him and a bad morning line, but I’m still taking him.

He had a very awkward start in the Travers and from there was never really in the race. He had three good races coming and was training well.

I’m going to draw a line through that Travers. His TFUS and Beyer figures put him right there and he gets Flavien Prat back aboard in this spot. There is no value in this pick at 3-1 or so, but given the field he’s facing here, I’ll hope that last race was a small misstep and he’ll be ready here. In Chad I Trust.

Two handicappers I respect - Nick Tamarro and Paul Halloran - both are of the mindset that given the pace here, Dragoon Guard can’t win. If he tries to run with Seize the Grey or even Just Step On It (who I believe will be gunning for the lead too) then yeah, he can’t win. He’ll get buried in the speed duel.

But I think this guy is talented enough to sit off of those and win the race. He’s been lucky to make some easy leads, I get it, but I believe there is real talent with this horse. Appears to be working well coming in. And he might just be good enough to blast off himself and wire here. Short price but big talent. He’s an ‘A’ for me in the late plays.

Stronghold will be a backup. Ran okay in the Derby given the post and pace. Could not get past Dragoon Guard last time but first off the layoff. Reports from my Parx people say this horse will be okay with the deeper surface. Using…and will be 3-1 or better.

Will also use Uncle Heavy as my price horse. He has a bad post: from Ed DeRosa, horses in post-position 10 and out, going nine furlongs at Parx, are 1 for 30 dating back to 2016. He’s a closer and will need a pace to run at here and might get it. Has great local connections and two wins here. If playing trifectas, please use.

One more - Protective. Maybe he’s figured it out and his race two back was actually pretty good. The best late closer he gets Irad and…I don’t know…I think he’ll be flying late at 10-1. Remember Todd Pletcher ran second in this race last year with closer Dreamlike at 7.80-1.

I am a FULL fade on Seize the Grey. Loved him in the Pat Day Mile. Hated him in the Preakness and it killed me. He’s better shorter and will be an underlay here. Will have huge crowd here on track in the form of MyRacehorse Stable.

8-7 // 11-10// 5

I’m lucky to be here on track at Parx and will be on the in-house TV feed all day. I get to work with my friend and track announcer Jessica Paquette. Let’s hope we find a winner or three.

You can watch it on your favorite ADW. If you’re on track, come say hello.

As for the rest of the PA Derby Day…great job by Parx Racing Manager David Osojna for a great betting card.

Ideas for all of today’s races are below. Posting these BEFORE scratches and will try to update but no promises.

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Race 1
Especially on a day like today, watch the board for clues in these two-year-old races. Without the benefit of that here on Friday afternoon, I’ll say I’m interested in Sherman Fury in the opener. Blinkers on after just sort of running around there against the talented Chancer McPatrick on debut. Butch Reid looks poised to have a big day and Analog Jones fits here, although has started slow in back to back starts. Maybe My Military Hero just didn’t like the blinkers last time? They come off and he can be right there.

Take note of money on Lasky Drive (a half to the talented Carmelina) and Happy Delusional (nice works at Parx).

2-11-6 // 9,14 …also if the 18 Friday Surprise gets in, I’d be interested.

Race 2
Again, watch the board. Maximus Angelicus set a wicked pace last time out at this level, only to fade late and lose to a next-out winner (60 Beyer at Laurel). Don’t focus on the beaten lengths here - was flying early. Can win this with a better trip. Bee Bluff the horse to beat and could wire here, but not thrilled with her at 2-1. Mischievous Twins is interesting for John Servis. This one a half to the talented Tuskegee Airman. Last two years, Servis 5-29 (17%) with two-year-olds debuting at Parx. Lures Johnny V for a popular ownership group. Nice gate work two back. Interesting. Cantafio a half to a pretty good horse (Salto Des Tigre) and steps up in class off an interesting trip.

3-6-1-10

Race 3
First of two turf races scheduled and there’s not much turf pedigree to experience to lean on. Fierce and Strong looks logical and has never been out of the exacta on turf. Crisper has four wins on the green. And Drunker Sailor has experience on it, too. But really, I’m guessing here. They have had issues with the turf and I’ll be curious how it plays.

More guessing and less handicapping here. Sorry.

11-7-4

Race 4
Not looking to eat too much chalk today, but 2-1 ML Beyondexpectations looks legit here. Great call by friend/track announcer Jessica Paquette in this one’s debut race. The Boy’s Warrior scratched out of a stake at PID to run here and is probably okay. Reelin N Dealing a half to Our Uptown Girl and the dam’s two two-year-olds have both won early.

Watch the board.

5-7-2

Race 5
Its likely Anabam is too quick for these early and is a legit favorite at 6/5. Loveumom gets blinkers for mid-circuit SuperTrainer™️ Jamie Ness - a strong move for that barn. Watch for money on Carousel Queen - Scott Lake is 14% with two-year-olds at Parx and 2 for his last 10 with fillies. Might be okay.

4-5-8

Race 6
Morning Matcha is 2-5 on the ML…and I get it. Comes in with four recent races faster than most of this group. Seven wins at Parx. Never out of the money at the distance. One of the more likely winners on the card. Feels like a Butch Reid exacta with Confirmed Star also a player here. If there is an upset, maybe Nature’s Candy can wire this group going a mile.

6-5-3

Race 7
Based on class, Striker Has Dial is a standout here. Look at the horses this one had faced - just much better than any in here. There’s a risk she gets hooked by Big Dreamer but if able to use that one as a target, could sit an awesome trip. WooHoo Jackie Blue first off the claim for Ness and get has back races on dirt that fit. Benefits from a hot pace here.

11-6-10

Race 8
When Next won this race last year, DRF’s Dan Illman asked out loud in the Parx media area, “Why not try the BC Classic?” I agreed. The connections did not. He’s the best marathon horse on the country and hoping he puts on his usual show Saturday. There are no such things as guarantees, but Next will be 1/9 and I’m not trying to beat him.

9-6-1

Race 9
This was one of if not the toughest race on the card for me. I’ll tepidly pick Film Star here. If they move up front, Irad can sit just off and find a good trip here at 4-1 or so. Note that Linda Rice has already shipped in and won here. Movisor went way too fast early last time and can be a player here with a better trip early. Jamie Ness and Repo Rocks appear dangerous in this spot. Tough race and I’m glad it’s not in the Late Pick 5.

8-1-4

Race 10
Again, there have been turf issues here at Parx and I’m not sure how the green will play on Saturday. There appears to be plenty of pace here with Traders Luck, Souper Quest and Jean Valjean likely to vie for the lead. Of those three, I’d like Jean Valjean the most.

But 5-1 on Alogon is too good to pass up on top. Can sit off the speed and just won here on this turf course. And ran pretty fast. Boat’s a Rockin comes out of that same race and has seven wins at the distance. He might be able to sit a good trip with Paco aboard and just off that pace.

These two turf races are not my strongest opinions of the day, for sure.

6-4-10

Race 11
The Grade 2 Gallant Bob is and important part of the mandatory payout Big Philly 5, the late .50 Pick Four and the Cross Country Pick 5.

Bentornado is the ML favorite and he makes sense coming off a fast race at Charles Town. But today he has to deal with the super-quick Buccherino. This one ran huge last time in the local prep for this spot. I assume he’ll be gunning for the lead here and go wire this field.

But if those two battle up front, the horse I want to bet is Maximus Meridius. He ran in that same local prep won by Buccherino and had to chase that one the whole way around. He’s run in some tougher races than this and maybe he gets to sit off the speed and get a better trip then last time. His race back on May 5 can win this. Will note trainer Butch Reid 0-5 going blinkers off on the dirt the last five years. Four of those five did hit the board.

Will focus on 5-3 here…I’m realizing I like a lot of Butch Reid horses today.

5-3-1-7

Race 12 - see above Cotillion
Race 13 - see above PA Derby

Race 14
The speed of the speed is always dangerous and for that reason, I like Super Chow in the finale. Stumbled and rushed up last time, this horse can blast off with a good start. I think this horse is loose and can wire at 3-1. I have always liked Twisted Ride and after trying deeper waters, get back to his level today. Top Gunner is first off the claim for Brad Cox. Cox is a ridiculous 6 for 12 (50%) the last year first off the claim on the dirt. Nine of those twelve hit the board. Oh, and Prat stays to ride the finale. I will not miss the Pick 5 because I tossed this one.

Would use My Buddy B and Ninetyprcentmaddie as backups late.

3-6-11 // 9,10

Should be a fun card. Will try and be active on X.com during the day.

Good luck if you’re playing and safe trips for all.