Preakness Stakes Final Thoughts

Rooting for Mage..are we betting on Mage? Late Pick 5 at Pimlico

May 20, 2023

I love the Preakness.

I was there live on the first turn in 2011 when Shackleford won for Dale Romans. Did not have the winner that day but had a lot of fun… from what I remember.

As a betting race the Preakness usually offers a chance to bet against a “weak” Derby winner and make some money.

Not the case this year from where I sit.

We have seven horse field where the Derby winner Mage looks legit and will be a very short price. And I can’t come up with a good reason to really bet against.

Mage is short on experience and long on talent. You don’t make a closing run like he did in the Derby - even with a strong pace - without some major ability. In retrospect I should have valued his big move in the Florida Derby more than I did when handicapping the Derby.

In his favor … He’s fast. His jockey is riding with major confidence after the Derby win. The field he’s facing is - as my kids say - “mid.” At best. And according to the people in the game I’ve talked to this week - his gallop Tuesday signaled he’s sitting on another big effort.

His trainer Gustavo Delgado is 6 for 31 over that last three years wheeling horses back in two weeks or less - so he’s been fine there.

A lot to like from the Derby winner.

Against - the price and the pace. He’s going to be 3/5 in here. In the Debry he got a great setup with the pace. They were flying and he took advantage. Does he get that again today? Does he need it? He was right on the pace when he broke his maiden so maybe that won’t be an issue. It is at least a question.

Usually the above (questions on pace and a short price) would be enough for me to pick someone else…but who do you really want in the group with First Mission scratched? He was my pick.

Chase the Chaos is too slow. Coffeewithchris has early speed but don’t think he’ll see our the distance. Red Route One seems pace compromised - he really needs a collapse. Blazing Sevens has not run back to his races last year - and those were from way back and on wet tracks. The best races anyway.

National Treasure seems like the most likely upsetter. Just go from the rail with blinkers on and play catch me if you can. Bob Baffert has pulled this trick before. Don’t know how good he really is but he should get a great trip and if he goes gate to wire I would not be shocked. But he’s no world-beater and he’s going to be 5/2. No great value there. But a win contender. For me it’s him and Mage.

Perform is my longshot idea. And look in a seven horse field he’s not even going to be a monster price. But…his finish in the Tesio last time was electric. It was visually strong the way he weaved in and out of horses to get up. You just don’t see it that often the way he did it. But it was only an 85 Beyer. Not as fast as it looked.

In the end the talent of Mage and the relative lack of other talent in the race land me on the Derby winner.

Mage goes by late to win. And to be honest I’m rooting for it.

3 - Mage
1 - National Treasure
6 - Perform

The top-two as A’s in the late Pick 5. IF I play any tris Perform will be the key for my tickets in third.

This will not be a race I’ll be heavily invested in. Just don’t see the value to hammer anything. I’ll be rooting more than betting in this Preakness. And hoping we have a Triple Crown try in three weeks for the Belmont Stakes bash at Mohegan Sun.

Speaking of…had to reach out to our guy Brad Bryant from Mohegan Sun’s FanDuel Sportsbook to see what he wants to do here.