Saratoga Stack 7.13.24
A terrific card to kickoff Weekend One of Saratoga 2024
The Saratoga Paddock will be a lot more exciting later today for the first Saturday of the 2024 meet. It’s a terrific card and hopefully, multiple chances for us to all make some money.
Some thoughts on today’s races are below.
First, a quick note.
Heard a great quote recently that applies to last year’s Saratoga coverage here at Mutstack.com - in addition to our 2024 Triple Crown handicapping.
“It’s really important to realize how much you suck.”
We had some winners and nailed the Travers, but I was not happy with much of the rest of my Saratoga handicapping. And it’s disappointing because I put so much time and effort in.
Handicapping races is hard.
Winning at Saratoga is even harder.
So I’ve changed my process, streamlined some things, and am ready to attack Saratoga 2024…hopefully with better results.
These Saturday posts will start with a “Top Play” and then move through the rest of the card.
MutStack Top Play 7-13-24
Race 10 - The Diana
Great edition of the Grade 1 Diana - the first Grade 1 of the summer at Saratoga.
Chad Brown has five in here and I’ll take defending champ Whitebeam on top. Should be able to make the front and at 4-1 that’s a fair gamble. Jessica Paquette's favorite Didia is logical. Why can’t Mission of Joy get into the number at a price? Fun race.
6-4-3
Race 1
Trainer Mark Casse has started the meet strong (6-2-1-1) and looks to have another live one in Dare to Breeze. The winner of his debut race is also trained by Casse and that one came back to win yesterday and get a 77 Beyer. Likely winner at a short price.
4-2-3
Race 2 - The Kelso
The scratch of Mysterious Night leaves us with four and three of them could win. I’ll tab Talk of the Nation on top and hope he can lead them all the way around, maybe sit just off Call Me Harry. But I don’t have a super strong opinion on the contenders and any of the #s 3,4 and 5 could win this small-field Grade 3.
4-5-3
Race 3
In a race where there does not appear to be a ton of early pace, Poppy’s Pride deserves a look. Jockey/Trainer 5 for 13 (38%). Just go from the bell and lead them all the way around at what should be a square price. Almost my Top Play today.
2-1-6
Race 4
He’ll be a short price and I guess Illumanire could wire this group. I’m hoping Abadin goes to and sets it up for Classic Legacy, who has caught slow paces recently and will need it to be quicker early. But he has the numbers to win here.
3-2-4
Race 5
Another race where I think speed can be dangerous on the front end and Suerte has that speed. Over the last four years, Mike Maker 11% dirt/turf at Saratoga but the average payoff is over $10. He hits with prices and 15-1 is worth a swing.
5-7-1
Race 6
Turriga has run her best races in turf sprints. Won last time and the DRF Clocker Report had good things to say about her last work.
1-10-8
Race 7
Innovator will take some money as a horse with a brutal trip last time (thanks to MutStack friend Mike D for pointing this one out) but should run much better this time. Moment’s Notice working well. Asleep At Eight is a classic “second-time Assmussen” and should be right there.
9-2-5
Race 8
Tough race. Hurricane Nelson has always looked like he had talent and working well for this one. Reynolds Channel might relish the cutback. Upstanding will be overbet (Todd/Irad) but looks live. Frostelle (30-1!!!) works well for this and gets to dirt. Spread race here to start the Pick 5.
10-3-4-6
Race 9
I’m not going to spend a lot of time or money trying to beat Irish Aces. Could use Bring Me a Check in exactas and tris - has a few back races that fit here.
8-11-9
Race 10 The Diana
See above
Race 11 - The Sanford
The scratch of Mentte opens this up. I’d want to use Three Echoes, Studlyoright and Mo Plex in the Pick 5 and will put the biggest price Mo Plex on top. His Timeform number on debut was solid and gets Irad. It’s those three and no one else for me.
8-5-6
Race 12
A tough turf sprint to end a nice card. I’ll try King Moonracer on top. Had some trouble in his last race. Gets Prat today and will have to be involved but I didn’t love anyone in here. Maybe Rithm Nic wires them. Tyler Gaffalione should just fire from the rail with Final Verdict.
11-9-1
Good luck if you’re playing today. Just have to be right once or twice to score!
