Saratoga Stack 7.20.24
Saratoga Stack 7.20.24
Haskell Day. Bob Baffert is back. Saratoga picks and plays.
Looks like a good card for Saturday #2 at Saratoga, headlined by Thorpedo Anna trying to win the G1 CCA Oaks and set herself up for a potential showdown with boys in the Travers later in August.
Plenty of attention will be paid to what happens on the Jersey Shore where Mindframe will be a heavy favorite in the Grade One Haskell.
It’s fair to call it a disappointing field. Our friend Chuck Simon made this point repeatedly during the Triple Crown Prep season - trainers are just trying to train their horses to get into the Derby starting gate. That’s it. There’s no planning for the rest of the year: just crank them up to run a fast prep, get into the Derby field, and the rest be damned.
So what you get for what should be a targeted race like the Haskell is, well, disappointing.
The field is led by the aforementioned Mindframe, who is lightly raced but has shown freakish talent in his three races. I expect he’ll be tough today and don’t plan on betting against him if I be the race. After that…
Dornoch - The upset winner of the Belmont, had a tough Derby trip.
Tuscan Sky - Nice ALW winner for Todd Pletcher
Timberlake - Off since March, a nice horse who must be prepping for the 7F Jerkens Stakes at Saratoga. Otherwise, this is a wacky spot to come back.
The field from there is just filler - for a Grade One race in late July.
Our friend Matt Bernier says just cut the number of G1 races and maybe that would help. Maybe then trainers would not JUST focus on getting their horses into the Derby starting gate but rather build out a campaign to get to the other G1s later in the year - of which I would still include the PA Derby in September.
Next week’s Jim Dandy at Saratoga will feature headliner Fierceness, but Sierra Leone, Sieze the Grey, and Batten Down are all likely to join him. Pretty good bunch.
Hopefully, the end result is a full field for the Travers in August. For now, it leaves us with an underwhelming bunch for a big race at the shore.
So after all those lawsuits and all of his pointing fingers at others for his mistakes, Bob Baffert gave CDI what they wanted - a public “I’m sorry.”
That Medina Spirit positive was THREE YEARS AGO.
The two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer frequently criticized the ban and had unsuccessfully sued Churchill Downs, which last year extended the ban to the end of 2024 for subsequent criticism. Medina Spirit's owner, Zedan Racing Stables, had sued for the trainer's discipline to end this spring in an effort to get his Baffert-trained Arkansas Derby winner Muth into the 150th Derby.
No mention of all the money he cost bettors in that Derby. And in other races.
Churchill Downs lifting the ban means Baffert will be back in the Derby and probably active in the fall meet in Kentucky.
He is a tough guy to root for as a horseplayer. You must respect his horses when wagering, but you don’t have to cheer them home..unless you bet on them.
MutStack Top Play 7-20-24
Saratoga Race 10
Grade III Lake George
Nice start to the summer with Whitebeam getting home ($11.60) in the Diana in our first Top Play last Saturday.
Todd Pletcher gets Manama Gold on the turf for the first time and I’m betting. Held his own with Emmanuel in a recent work and can go right to the front. Lots of turf in the pedigree and I’m hopeful it gets ignored by the betting public. Oversubscribed is logical at a shorter price. Pounce has two wins at the distance and looks to have a versatile running style
3-2-8-6
Race 4
My toxic trait continues to be trying to get weak ‘speed’ horses to wire the field, so let’s start the day with Boss Tweed. Two for three at the distance, has always been quick out of the gate, and has a trainer that can keep them in good form. Gary Contessa 3 for 7 (43%) with winners last out in NY on the dirt over the last year.
3-1 exacta
Race 5
The scratches really help Bobby the Tank on the front end. A big drop for Safalow’s Mission. Don’t have much interest in anyone else.
8-3-9
Race 6
Trainer Joe Sharp is hitting at 28% (5 for 18) last three years in turf sprints at Saratoga. Girls Weekend shows no turf pedigree and will play against. Reconcile does have turf in her family and could be dangerous on the front.
6-1-7
Race 7
Make sure to watch the board to see who takes money, but I’m interested in Track Ranger. Brad Cox 31% (4 for 13) over the last year in NY with FTS on the dirt. On fire recently 6: 3-2-0-1. Dam won the first time she got a fast dirt track and this one comes in with some quick works out of town. Very interesting. Social Hour has good works per DRF Works Report (always worth the money) and cost $500k.
8-10-5-4
Race 8
Mark Casse came to Saratoga with his horses ready to run and Full Screen might be the next. Ran off before his last race and maybe that was the excuse. Two back a good second to Blazing Sevens. Nice works and can sit off the speed. Federal Judge and Gun It could both win this. I’ll take a shot with the hot trainer and a better price.
8-2-3
Race 9
Major Dude likely needed his comebacker last month and improvement from a good campaign last year makes him a huge threat. Can take them all the way around. The other speed in here is also trained by Todd Pletcher, so it should not be a battle on the front.
2-3-9
Race 10
See above
Race 11 - CCA Oaks
Thorpedo Anna owes us nothing after winning the Kentucky Oaks. Go right to the front and lead them around for another G1 win. Brendan Walsh always live and Intricate would be my exacta idea. 11: 4-1-2 (36%) with jockey Gaffalione last three years at the Spa. He’s 2 for 5 with this layoff/surface in NY since 2021.
3-5
Race 12
De La Cruz started slow last time against older can be right there with a clean break. Factor Analysis a must-use in the multis. Note Artempus gelded and held his won with Haskell-bound Tuscan Sky in a recent workout.
10-1-3-9
Good luck if you’re playing today. Safe trips for all.