Late Saturday afternoon, the newly renovated Jim Dandy Bar at Saratoga rockin’ and rolling’, lined four and five deep to get a cocktail and watch the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes. The race serves as the local prep for the Travers in August.
It will be an important race for the folks betting on any of the late multi sequences. Middle leg of the Pick 5, which will probably have a pool of over $1M…starts the late Pick 3…part of the Late Pick 4 and the Pick 6. Given the participants - and we’ll get to them - there will be folks who want to single here in this race and hope to spread elsewhere. So yeah, important race from a betting standpoint.
It’s also an important race when it comes to trying to analyze the second half of the 2024 racing season.
The Derby Winner Mystik Dan looks like he’s done for the year. The Belmont winner Dornoch was a gritty winner of the Haskell last Saturday and is the leader in the clubhouse for three-year-old champ.
Saturday’s Jim Dandy presented by Mohegan Sun lines up the upset winner of the Preakness Seize the Grey against Debry runner-up and subsequent third-place finisher in the Belmont Sierra Leone. Batten Down shows up here after a dominant win in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. Gould’s Gold ran second in that race and is in the field. Pony Express is listed as a 20-1 outsider but comes in with bullet works that had Bob Baffert (who doesn't even train the horse) gushing on his appearance with Steve Byk this week.
And on the outside of the field is the post-time favorite in the Derby Fierceness, who has not run since but flashed brilliance in the Flordia Derby and the BC Juvenile.
A compact but very interesting group.
I’d like to have the winner in my picks somewhere. And I want them all to come back safe. But selfishly, I’d also love to see a “star” performance.
The sport is lacking stars in 2024. This point was made by my friend “The Big A” Anthony Stabile at Mohegan Sun’s Belmont Day Bash. The biggest draw in racing might be Thorpedo Anna, who romped in the CCA Oaks at Saratoga last Saturday.
She’s been awesome this year and trainer Ken McPeek knows it. He’s worked with Saratoga to let fans watch her train on the main track or Oklahoma training track every morning at 5:30 AM this week. And fans have been there to greet her. Cool to see.
After Anna…I guess National Treasure is in that tier top tier. Next is a cool horse who keeps destroying marathon fields but needs to show up in a more marquee race. Cogburn looks like a freak turf-sprinting but…it’s turf sprinting. Tapit Trice…okay now I’m reaching.
And then you get to that three-year-old group mentioned above. Plus Mindframe. It would be a huge boost if one of them breaks through over the next few months and up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Maybe even into a four-year-old campaign.
Yes, it’s a betting game. But it’s a better betting game when there are stars to look forward to even if you’re not a degenerate handicapper like me. And right now the game is lacking those stars.
Here’s hoping one will emerge in today’s Jim Dandy. Then, hopefully, Anna, Dornoch, and the rest of the group meet up in August for the Travers.
That would make it a race worth watching even if you didn’t have a few bucks on the race.
But don’t worry we will.
TODAY’S FRIDAY FOUR-PACK IS PRESENTED BY THE BROOK CASINO
A couple of handicapping thoughts before we get into the card…
The speed on the main track at Saratoga has been good. Thursday and Friday this week I’d call very good. Something to monitor this weekend if you’re playing.
The inner turf played kind to speed once the rails came down, as noted by Nick Tammaro. Again, something to monitor
MutStack Top Play 7-27-24
Saratoga Race 6
Grade I Vanderbilt
When Manama Gold did not get away well in the Lake George, I knew we were in trouble. But we did have the exacta in our top three then Pounce held off Oversubscribed. But not a winner.
The hope here is that Nakatomi and Skelly take the money and we get close to the 7/2 ML on Baby Yoda. The horse loves Saratoga (6-4-0-1) and ran his faster Beyer here. Training well coming in. Can sit off the pace and power home late. Subrogate feels like the main threat.
4-5
Race 1
Have to use the early betting as a guide here. Without that, I can’t find a lot of turf pedigree to go on here and am left to guess. Trainer Bill Mott is 4 for 13 (31%) going sprint to route on the turf at Saratoga the last two years, so I’ll guess with Simulate. West Beach has experience, too. Firsters Atomic Age and Barricade look most interesting.
2-7-3-10
Race 2
Very interested in seeing the early double will-pays to Tinepar. Got bet on debut, broke a little slow, and then watching the head-on replay he just never looked comfortable. Training well and I expect a much better effort today.
5-3-8
Race 3
Trainer John Ortiz is 3 for his last 10 (30%) dropping horses in class from ALW to CLM on the dirt. Over the last five years, he’s 12-51 (24%). He has not tried the move in NY but it’s a go-to for him elsewhere. Master of Arms is fast enough ans makes that drop. Good enough for me in a 25K CLM. Scratches help Charlie Five O and the ice-cold Rudy Rod.
7-1A-9
Race 4
A lot of us had Kentucky Derby future bets on Speak Easy after he romped on debut. That was six months ago! If he comes back running he wins for fun, but that’s a big if. Not a race I have a lot of interest in betting.
5-4-8
Race 5
Race sets up for ML fave Who’s the King to take them all the way around. Yo Daddy has a race at Keeneland that puts him in the mix here and will use as well.
4-2-10
Race 6
See above
Race 7
Really nice group on paper. They paid $1.2 million for Invictus and he looks like he could be touch on debut. Chancer McPatrick working well for his debut. Some good hidden works on Noble Confessor. As usual, watch where the money comes in and adjust your ideas if needed.
1-6-4
Race 8
Have been betting Lamorna hoping for a clean trip and I’m ready to do it again today. Aunt Nona ran better than it looks after a slow start last time at 43-1.
7-8-4
Race 9
My heart says we should be rooting for Patriots die-hard and owner of Drunk on Sake Jimmy Politano here, but my money will be elsewhere. West Hollywood looks like the winner here at what will be a short price. Navy Seal finally gets back to turf.
8-3-9
Race 10
The Grade II Jim Dandy
Lots of speed here really seems to set this up for Sierra Leone, right? Prat has been lights out and he’ll try and save ground and mow them down late. Even money for a reason here. He’s supposed to win this race. Period. Derby selection Fierceness going to be confronted early and maybe he freaks and wins but hard to have any confidence. Batten Down in good form. Against Seize the Grey … until they cut him back in the Jerkens.
1-3-6
Race 11
Taking a swing at 20-1 with American Grant here. Super wide two-back. Last time wide late. His speed figures are light for this level and he’ll need a perfect trip but I need to take one more shot after his last two. Include in your horizontal bets. Gem Mint Ten and Willintroriskitall will be on my tickets. Whistler’s Honor and Ez Roll in the mix. Wide open, let’s get a price home.
5-10-4
Race 12
Tough race to end the day. Summer Whirl did everything but win last time and will be tough. Autumn should fit this mile distance just fine and has early speed. Miss City girl gets blinkers and should be right there. Staying away from the outside posts here, myself.
4-5-1
Big day.
Back tomorrow with a special Sunday Saratoga Stack and will join Mr. Ice and Turk on Sunday morning for the Barstool Sports Saratoga Doubles show at 11:30AM. We’ll try and nail the early double and start a Sunday at the Spa with a win. I’ll post the link on X.com or follow Elio to get the show live on Sunday morning.
Good luck if you’re playing and safe trips for all.