Saratoga Stack 8.10.24

Picks for Saturday at Saratoga and Tournament Tales

As someone who has touted the advantage of speed going a route of ground on the main track at Saratoga, I probably should have been on Authur’s Ride in the Whitney.

But I believed from that inside position, National Treasure would have to go and there was no way the big grey would outfoot the Baffert early. Instead, Prat was nonchalant with National Treasure - maybe he thought he was too good for this field and could inhale them late. If so, it was a bad decision.

Hope you had the winner - like our friend Joe in the comments here.

Below you’ll find my picks and ideas for the full card Saturday at Saratoga, another edition of Tournament Tales, and a few other racing opinions.

If you are playing Saratoga today, note the revised schedule of racing.

Note that the late Pick 4 and Pick 5 will be in a separate wagering tab on whatever ADW you play on. On NYRA Bets the tab is called SARATOGA ADDED LATE P4 AND P5.

Good luck if you’re playing and thanks for reading.

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Tournament Tales

After tuning up in multiple HorseTourney.com events, I jumped into last Saturday’s $300 NYRA Whitney Day Saratoga Tournament.

These are real money, live tournaments. You have a $200 bankroll and $100 goes into the pot, all paid out to the players in winnings. You have to bet a minimum of $40 on five different races ($200) and then you can bet what you want beyond that.

Win, place, show, exacta, trifecta, daily double and quinella betting only.

I worked with the NYRA Bets team last summer, play on their platform, and believe the folks who work on the tournament side are trying hard to create good tournaments for players. I’m a fan.

I crapped out last summer attempting a similar tournament, in part because I had no plan. And was not focused. This year the plan was simple: use exactas to build the bankroll and go all in on the last race of the day with a horse and a bet I really liked.

That was the plan, in theory. I love that game theory aspect of tournaments. But I got rattled…as you’ll read.

About an hour before post, we got the news the races would be off the turf and a pair of stakes races would be canceled altogether. Not great.

Rather than a solid 13-race card, we were down to 11 races and nothing on the turf. It was too late to back out - and I wasn’t going to punt the entry - so we had to play the cards we were dealt.

Race 2:
New for 2024 - How about being able to toggle between your live betting at NYRA Bets and your contest account? On either mobile or desktop. That is an excellent upgrade from NYRA. Easy easy easy.

So, Race 2…I was not planning to bet on Race 2, but the price was right.
Friend of the Devil was training well coming in and taking money. You're REALLY gambling in these 2 YO races but 7-1 felt like a good gamble - especially given his training.

Played 15 win/place and $5 ex 34/8.

The Result: The first-time starter broke slowly and was never a factor. One for the watch list, but a loser today. I should not be betting on first-time starters in a tournament where I don’t have to. Also right out of the gate, I’ve bailed on exacta bets only. Pain.

(-$40)

Race 3
This was one I had planned hours earlier.

Scratches made #1 Deck of Cards a real threat to wire at a short price. I thought Movie Moxie was the only one who might be able to upset and the exacta paying $5 for every $1 bet was an appealing way to make $150 on a race where the favorite looked legit.

I played a $35 exacta 1-8 and a $5 8-1…yeah yeah, insanity backup. I didn’t box Smarty Jones and Birdstone in 2004 and I’m not over it.

The Result: Deck of Cards won, as expected. I just needed the #8 for second and a nice bankroll boost…

The OTHER Linda Rice horse rallied late to get the right head-bob. I cheered home Movie Moxie from my basement. It did not help.

This was tilting. Rather than make $100 bucks on the race, I lost $40.

(-$40)

Race 5
At this point, tilt has set in folks.

In real life, I was all over the #8 I Got Game. Bad trip, good works….but again this was a 2 YO race and he was being bet like he might end up the favorite.

But what if I didn’t bet on him??
And then what if he won???
Could I live with myself????

The answer should have been yes. This was a MSW race and I was taking a short price. Not a good tournament bet.

Alas, a straight $40 win bet was placed at 3-1.

The Result: More pain. And another brutal trip. From DRF.com: lost footing st, 5-6w early, bumped 4w 3/8, 8w uppr, bump 3/16p. I can’t say I added him to the watch list, he was already there.

What a dumb bet.

(-$40)

Race 6
This one hurt. I liked the only experienced runner in the field, #5 El Prestigio. He went off at 5-1 and ran second to a freak they paid $1.3M for.

In my pre-tourney notes, I had planned to bet exactas keying off the 5 and using 1 and 4. But after that forced, stupid bet in Race 5, I sat on my hands and didn’t bet a nickel.

The Result: 1-5-4. $20 exacta for every $1. The .50 trifecta paid $78! This was a race I liked, planned on betting but ended up punting because I had tilt-fired on Race 5. Pain. Pain. Pain. Tilt. Tilt. Tilt.

It’s not a lot of fun to write up losing recaps, but this is especially painful.

Race 8 - The Test
Tilt has now very much set it. And now I just want to be right vs. trying to win the most money, which is never the right play in tournaments.

Ways and Means looks like a lock. Love the way Denim and Pearls is coming into the race.

$40 cold exacta 4-2. At least it was an exacta I planned on betting.

The Result: Ways and Means rolls, Denim and Pearls is never a threat. The other Brad Cox gets second at a nice 4-1.

(-$40)

Race 11 - The Whitney
Looking at the Leaderboard - which is right there and when you’re winning is great to see your name up there but when you’re losing it is NOT all that fun - I’m drawing dead here. Maybe if I can cash an exacta here I can bet it all on the longshot I like in the last race and it might be enough to make a few bucks today.

National Treasure can’t lose. First Mission is going to come off the pace today. Straight $40 exacta to get some bucks for the finale.

The Result: Turns out National Treasure CAN lose. Arthur's Ride gate to wire on a wet track. I assumed he was a speed and fade player. He never faded. First Mission was bad and didn’t come from off the pace. National Treasure was worse. A terrible Whitney opinion.

(-$40)

Race 13
I’m out of money at this point. This is actually Race 11 after the cancellations. The plan was a Drake’s Passage/Cyber Ninja exacta to win the tournament. I wrote last week that Drake’s Passage “was the most likely winner on the card.”

And if I was down big, all the money on Cyber Ninja to win.

Drake’s Passage ran dead last. At 2-5.

Cyber Ninja was 3rd at 4-1.

Final Tally:
Five races
Zero cashes
Dumb bets
Bad opinions
Tilt City
(-$300, DFL)

I have not been good in these live money tournaments. I need to control my emotions better after a tough beat. That goes for my real-life bankroll, too.

My opinions were bad but when you couple them with tilted betting, you simply can’t win. Add in making a few bets I didn’t plan on betting and you have all the ingredients for an account balance of $0.00 at the end of the tournament.

Love the NYRA Bets Tournament setup. Sign up and register right in your account. Could not be easier to place bets and see both balance and leaderboard. And the easy login process where the contest is right in my account is a great upgrade for players.

Didn’t love my results. We will jump in again soon.

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This is bad news for horseplayers.

Craig Milkowski spent years in the game working on the TimeFormUS speed figures - they account for pace and are very valuable.

In addition, he would spend time retiming races when there were errors. I’m not an expert, but it seems racetracks have an archaic system of timing races and often make mistakes. This leads to mistakes in speed figures because many of those figs are based on the final time of the race. If the race is mistimed for whatever reason, the figure will be wrong.

That’s a big deal.

Craig would point out, for example, when a seagull messed up the fractions of a race. Seriously.

He’s also a smart guy who appears to care about racing. The sport keeps losing good people and this is another one.

Best of luck to Craig going forward. Shame on DRF/Eqiuibase for not finding a way to keep him on board - he makes the game better for the horseplayer. Not many people can say that in 2024.

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MutStack Play of the Day for August 10, 2024

Two races canceled and off the turf today leaves us struggling for a true “Play of the Day.”

Race 8 - The Saratoga Special
I don’t know if he can rate, but if he can Keep It Easy can upset Touchy here. The outside post should allow him to sit off that one and be there late. He improved big time in his second start and a horse that he beat came back to run 10 points faster on Beyer in his next race. Smoken Wicked was posted wide and did not have the best trip last time. Maybe a little slow. Showcase has to be left in the mix. Tough edition of the Saratoga Special.

9-5-1-2

Just like last week, ⭐⭐⭐ are marked as top plays/ideas. For whatever that’s worth.

Race 1
As always, watch the board in these 2 YO races. Innovator looks tough from the inside but I’ll take a small shot against with Sandman. Mark Casse came to Saratoga loaded and this one has the speed to be involved early. Cost $1.2 million. Jujubee caught a wet track on debut and is working steadily for this one + blinkers on.

2-1-5

Race 2 ⭐⭐⭐
Hurricane Nelson will be odds-on and could be long gone early. He’ll face some pace pressure from Banned for Life and others, so another small shot against a favorite with Marche. Worked with Fierceness two back and had no real pace to attack on debut. Irad stays and should get a good trip just off the speed.

2-1-6

Race 3
Secret Rules drops from 40K CLM and has the speed to control from the onset. One I’d be okay singling in the Early Pick 5.

4-1-2

Race 4
On the dirt, I can’t see how Miss Fashionista loses this race.

9-4

Race 5
As bad a race as I can remember being carded on a Saratoga Saturday. I can’t ignore the big drop for Linda and Grab the Glory. Spiritual Lady has been fine on dirt. She’ll beat me, but how can you take 9/5 on Devil Blue Dress when she was 60-1 last time, even on the huge drop. FWIW, Dale Romans 23% (9 for 40) dropping ALW to CLM on the dirt last five years. FWIW #2 - Is the workout partner for my Special pick, Take it Easy. Still don’t want her on top in this race.

6-7-5

Race 6
CANCELED

Race 7 ⭐⭐⭐
I don’t know what price he’ll be after scratches, but I want to bet Clock Tower here. Has big speed and a race on the dirt. Breaks from the 6-hole and can take them all the way. 2-1 or 5/2 seems fair. Looked like a very run race on the turf. I miss turf racing.

11-12-1

Race 8
SEE ABOVE

Race 9 - The Troy (OFF TURF)
Yikes. Just a five-horse field but I had a hard time here…I’ll hope Disarmed blasts off and is able to wire this goofy bunch. Will have to deal with Step Forward - that one who has no dirt races but will likely be fast out of the gate. Thin White Duke could be the closer who takes advantage if the thing melts down. Not much conviction here, so feel free to ignore this analysis.

13-12-5

Race 10
CANCELED

Race 11
I thought Dot’s Dollar had a bit of a stumble around the turn in his last race. Prat seemed to ease off after that and coast home last. The race two back puts him in the mix today and at 9/2, I’m betting. Banyan Breeze feels like a classic "‘wiseguy’ horse, especially with Irad aboard.

4-7-6

Race 12
I thought Drake’s Passage was a lock in the finale last week. That one race last. I think Halina’s Forte is the last race lock today. Just better than these on dirt. Value Area might get a sweet trip off the speed and the only other I’d use. Golden Degree will blast off from the inside.

10-11

Good luck if you’re playing. Safe trip for all.