Saratoga Stack 8.17.24

The Alabama headlines Saratoga Saturday and the Travers is just a week away

Aug 17, 2024

Just a few racing thoughts before we get into the handicapping…

We are now just a week away from the 155th Travers Stakes. Given the field expected, there is plenty of anticipation. And there should be.

Thorpedo Anna would have been a heavy favorite in today’s Alabama. Credit to trainer Ken McPeek for opting for next week’s feature, where she has a chance to be the first filly since 1915 to win the Mid-Summer Derby.

You also have the Belmont and Haskell winner in Dornoch, the Jim Dandy winner and Derby 24’ favorite Fierceness, plus everyone’s favorite late-runner Sierra Leone. Only eight lined up but it’s a solid group.

Anna v. The Boys is good for racing and makes it a much better betting race - both this week’s Alabama and next week’s Travers.

I’m guessing Fierceness will be the favorite, somewhere around 5-2. But I think Anna will end up going off as close to if not the second choice at 3-1. I don’t think she’s the second most likely winner, but it feels like she’ll be overbet in this spot.

We picked her in the Oaks when she was 9/2. It will be hard to take less than that vs. better on Saturday. Might be a race to take a stand against if we get short odds.

They’ll draw the race on Sunday afternoon but there is plenty of buzz already with Anna in the field.

Del Mar debuted a new bet this week, called the “3X3.”

It’s a $1 minimum bet where you have to nail the trifecta in the last three races of the day.

Unless there is someone who sweeps all three, a jackpot carries over. That’s most of the pool. There are consolations for picking some winners in order, but they are minimal. Oh, and there’s a 22% takeout.

It’s a really, really dumb bet.

Thankfully, the players in CA have recognized this and have basically ignored it. On Friday, there was only $237 bet into the 3X3 pool.

This “bet” is basically playing a lottery ticket with astronomical odds against actually winning - only with a 22% takeout.

Racing’s wagering menu is stale and needs an update. Racing in general needs a lot of help. More jackpot-style bets with a 22% takeout are not the answer.

Just like last week, ⭐⭐⭐ are marked as top plays/ideas. For whatever that’s worth.

MutStack Play of the Day
Race 9 - The Lake Placid
⭐⭐⭐

The Lake Placid came up as a great betting race. I don’t have a big knock against 2-1 ML fave She Feels Pretty. Pace scenario should not matter and I could see longshot Ori leading them into the far turn. I won’t be shocked when She Feels Pretty powers past that one, wins, and pays $6.

BUT… I want a price in a race where a lot of these look similar. to me. And maybe I’m getting caught up in the replays, but Proctor Street looked really good in his two wins. Both of those came from back in the pack and she showed real professionalism in both. Maybe a little slow on speed figures but should get a nice trip and the price will be there.

Saez might get a sweet trip on De Regreso and I’ll use in the vertical wagers.

9-7-4

Race 1
I won’t be shocked when Moment’s Notice wins but the price will be short. Perfect Force ran in a MSW at CD where the runners who have come back have improved their Beyer figures. It is a better race than it looks like on paper. Nice work for this. I wanted to experienced runners in the opener.

5-1A-7

Race 2
The field is loaded with turf pedigrees and I’ll land on the sibling to Spanish Mission, Asbury Park. Policy Change bred to run on the grass and could be a factor. Watch the board - see what horses are being bet by looking at the double probables.

1-3-6

Race 3 ⭐⭐⭐
Bendetta got herself and a wild duel last time and understandably faded late - since then has trained okay for this and gets Prat today. Any improvement off the 2023 figures and this one can be in the mix at a price.

1-4-5

Race 4
Trainer Michael Trombetta can be trusted when he gets his horses turf sprinting (18% at Saratoga last five years) and Turf Rocket gets his chance today and if his closing kick transfers to 5.5F she can win this at a fair price.

7-3-5

Race 5
When Linda Rice claims horses from Kentucky over the last year, they usually come running at Saratoga. While Macaw is the most likely winner, Salacious drops to the MDC basement and has flashed speed before. The more inside the better out of the Wilson Chute.

4-7-3

Race 6
Call Me Harry has been facing much tougher company and has run some of the best numbers in here. Logical for sure. I’ll take a small swing with Laural Valley who is 2 for 2 at Saratoga and is in strong form. Broke his maiden almost a year ago at Saratoga going this same trip. Maxwell Esquire is interesting at a price second off the layoff and getting Prat.

3-4-9

Race 7
The progression of Chad Brown’s Catch a Wave sticks out like a sore thumb. Freedom Trail dangerous off the layoff. Mondego could lead them a long way if the pace does not develop.

5-4-8

Race 8
Rocketeer puts the blinkers back on and has already faced older. This is a big move for trainer Brad Cox - Blinkers ON, Dirt, Routes = 30% over the last five years. He’s 2 for 4 with the move in NY. Terrible movie, but I’m picking the horse.

6-10-9

Race 9
SEE ABOVE

Race 10 - The Alabama
I mean, I guess Candied could win, but it will be at an ultra-short price. My gut pick here is Neon Icon. You’re trying to figure out who wants the mile and a quarter and this one already has a win at the distance. Start in the Indy Oaks was not ideal. That’s the gut pick.

My brain says to give Intricate one more shot. Can save ground all the way around and make her run late. Beat Thorpedo Anna last year and is now third off the layoff. Hopefully, Miss Justify sets a pace to run into. That one might get brave on the front end.

A very tough race...if you’re not willing to concede it to Candied.

1-7-9

Race 11
After a not-so-great trip last time going longer, will try Who’s the King cutting back. Will continue to focus on horses in posts 1-6 in the Mile Chute and this one should be able to sit off the speed and stay close. Saffie and Gaffalione have been a potent combo (21% last five years in Saratoga).

4-3-5

Race 12
After trying stakes company and break, Naughty Destiny returns with Lasix and the hottest jockey in Saratoga. Clement Barn is due to get going here and he’s good with turf sprinters.

6-3-8

Nice card. Good luck if you’re playing. Safe trips for all.