Saratoga Stack 8.2.23
Pick 6 Carryover Wednesday at the August Place to Be
Week Four of the Saratoga meeting sees us turn the calendar to August.
The Whitney this week. The Travers in less than four. Kids are back to school in a month.
Week Three started with a bang for our Two Minute Pick, but the oh-fer weekend stings.
Week One: 4-0-0-0 (-$24)
Week Two: 5-1-2-0 (+$2.70)
Week Three: 5-1-0-1 (-$14.80)
Been some frustrating results, but 14-2-2-1 is not a good start. Mid City.
Plenty of opportunities ahead starting today with a good card to kick off Whitney Week and Day 15 of the meet.
It’s Week 4 (already???) at Saratoga.
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I’m probably burying the lede here, as the week kicks off with a Pick 6 carryover of close to $200k.
With a $1 minimum, I don’t play the bet that often, but on a carryover day it's hard not to get involved if you have a few strong opinions along the sequence.
A reminder that NYRA has excluded CAW players from getting their usual perks when it comes to playing the Pick 6 in New York. If you’re reading this and asking “What is a CAW player?”
And finally this - we touched on the issue back in June.
Anyway, let’s look at the Pick 6 sequence, Races 5-10.
Updated for the big scratch in Race 10.
Race 5: Weather looks great so let’s assume turf. Two-year-old, statebreds on the green to kick things off. The board and the breeding will have to be your guide as only three of the entries have run before. Christophe Clement is 4 for his last 14 (29%) with 2-year-olds on the turf at Saratoga. He’s 21% over the last five years. The experience for #7 Find Your Joy should help second time. #4 Coach Sessa’s sire Catholic Boy is off to a good start with turf starters. Sorry I can’t be more help here, but depending on the board I’d be playing some combination of 2,4,6/1,7, depending on how they’re being bet both on the win end and in doubles. I would not be finalizing this leg of my play until I saw the odds and the workout reports. And this leg might keep me out of the bet altogether.
Race 6: Linda Rice has a strong hand in here with #7 Postnup and #2 Kannon Fire. Both would be on the tickets, with 1,3 as backups.
Race 7: Linda, again, this time with #10 Lord Captian. We picked him last time and noted he really started to run late like a horse that would want longer. Well, he gets it - a mile and a quarter and he’s 9/5 in here. Over the last year in New York, Linda is a gaudy 34% making this sprint to route move on the dirt. Nick Tammaro dug deeper.
Sick.
On a small ticket (which I’d be playing), I’d be singling 10. If I could afford it, I’d also use the #9 Bobby G, who should be fine at the distance in what could be a staggerfest late.
Race 8 is the De La Rose - a mile stake for fillies and mares who have not won a graded stake in 2023. Well, #1 White Frost has JUST missed a few times and would be on my tickets. Along with the favorite, #5 Technical Analysis for Chad. #3 Eminent Victor feels sort of like Whitebeam to me - that horse looked a little slow on paper but was able to upset the Diana. 1,5/3.
Race 9: 5.5f turf dash. Wesley Ward has two of these, the #1 Happy Soul would be on the ticket. As would #6 Mail Order, who missed last time against a good horse and is now second off the layoff. Would like to be able to afford the 5 and 7 as backups.
A deeper dive on #6 Mail Order as a win bet in our Two Minute Pick - Presented by NYRA Bets
Race 10: Linda Rice was 3 for 8 first off the claim to start the Saratoga meet but has now lost six in a row. Still 3 for 14 but the angle has cooled. HOWEVER….#7 Vax is way the horse to beat here. I get it if this is a single for you. Might be for me.
One barn that has heated up has been the Rudy Rodriguez team. He’s 5 for 16 dropping in claiming price by 50% or more the last five years at Saratoga. Race two back for #4 Baby Sox could be competitive here. A backup on a bigger budget. (7/4)
UPDATED FOR SCRATCH 1PM: Well, shoot. #7 Vax is out. I don’t think I’ll be involved in the Pick 6 with this random collection in the finale.
I would have it 4-5-2 now, but no real conviction. The #5 has never raced on dirt but comes off a nice dirt work and this field is not filled with killers.
Hopefully, you can navigate the sequence. I’ll decide if I’m playing it after scratches.
Good luck if you’re playing. As always, we ask that you share with friends who also might like reading about Saratoga during the summer.
Comments open below, as always!