If I ignore the terrible betting and loss of bankroll, Travers Eve was a great day at Saratoga.
Nice table in the backyard with friends. Seemed like a quiet day on track. Easy to move around.
My son (one of them) is finally picking some winners. The weather was glorious. Dinner at Mexican Connection.
All that being said…the betting was bad.
Thankfully, it’s easy to turn the page when you have this massive Travers card in front of you.
As usual, full-card picks are below. Travers!
Race 13 - The Travers ⭐⭐⭐
We have a full-field breakdown and some expert selections in The Friday Four-Pack.
As for the race.
I feel foolish doing it, but I have Sierra Leone winning the race.
I think Thorpedo Anna, Dornoch, and Fierceness all press the pace. As the week has gone on, I’ve convinced myself Batten Down will also be a pace player. It’s going to be fast early.
Flavien Prat will be able save ground behind all that speed and get a perfect set up to mow them down late.
I get it, he’s had his chances. But this one today..I mean it looks too good. Which is why everyone seems to be on this guy. I don’t think we’re getting 7-2.
He’s my pick and an A, for sure.
The filly Thorpedo Anna is the big story here: they’ll be handing out Thorpedo Anna posters at the track on Saturday. She has a huge fan base and it’s a great story if she wins. Training huge coming in and can save a lot of ground inside. I thought she might be the favorite but there are very few public handicappers actually picking. But I think she can win and have her an ‘A.’
Other win contenders - Dornoch can win this. He’s going to battle you in the lane and when he has a lead he’s tough to pass.
My win contenders are those three - Sierra Leone, Dornoch and Anna.
Underneath, I have to use the other Chad in Unmatched Wisdom. Training big and can sit just off the pace. Has never run a bad race. The push from Mike Vesce here on Friday is also a factor. And he’ll be a square price, although the Chad Brown exacta will be overbet. I will have in exactas and tris with my Top 3.
I will not be using Fierceness. He wins, I lose. I wonder if he’d even be in here if Mindframe was healthy.
You can’t bet them all.
2-7-1-3
I have been hyping this race for a while. It’s the best Travers I can remember I’m hopeful it’ll live up to the top billing it has today at Saratoga.
But there are 13 other races we get to wager on too!
Race 1
Won’t spend a lot of time or money trying to beat Geopolitics in the opener. Has run faster than these and adds blinkers for Mott. Empire Magic part of a fast pace last time and is the most likely upsetter.
8-6-1
Race 2
If Donegal Momentum takes to the green he can win this at a fair price. Turf in his family and DRF Clocker Report is okay with his turf work. Main Beach was coming last time and can get there with a clean trip.
9-5-1
Race 3
He was wide on Belmont weekend up here but running late. Same story two back at BAQ. Then again late July in Saratoga. Today he stretches out to a longer distance and gets the red-hot Dylan Davis. Give me American Grant on top at a price. Addicted to You was close to a pace that fell apart last time and might be okay.
7-4-3
Race 4 ⭐⭐⭐
I’m going to draw a line thru his last race after after he hit the gate early and bet Arro Smash. Pace advantage here and has won at this trip (last year’s Travers Day finale).
2-6-4
Race 5
Mischievous Angel has never run poorly when sprinting on the green and gets a chance to do that again here. Runninngwscissors will be flying late and could win with the right trip. Which is the norm for these turf sprints.
7-6-1A/1
Race 6
Watch the board for who gets bet here, but why not Insubordination? Trained well on turf before getting a start in an off-the-turf race. Trainer George Weaver 16% with 2-year-olds first-time turf at Saratoga. Had two winners like that last summer and is due to get a few wins.
1-4-10
Race 7
Again, watch the board here. Looks to be some real talent in here and Rookie Card has been working with some seasoned talent - he held his own against Dornoch two works back. Tip Top Thomas looks set for a strong debut and has win early in his pedigree.
2-3-8
Race 8
The most likely winner here is Rhetorical after a strong debut here in July. But don’t ignore Miracle Mike in here. A slowish start in his last and was running late. An exotics use for sure. Final Denile is also in play for a piece.
5-7-1
Race 9 - The Grade I Sword Dancer
Charlie Appleby appears to have this race locked with Measured Time and Silver Knott. I’ll use both as As in the mandatory payout Pick 5 and move on.
2-4-3
Rcace 10- The Grade I Ballerina
It seems like everyone is picking her and I guess I’ll join in because Scylla fits here. Can’t get over Bill Mott shipping the horse to California and then coming back to run here and cutting back. With any pace set up, she can win. Sure, Vahva will be a tough customer today and a horse to use for sure in multis.
5-3-1
Race 11 - The Grade I Forego
I hate picking the favorite in a competitive race like this, but Mullikin looks like the right one here. Fast enough to be involved early and has never been out of the exacta at the tricky 7F distance. Baby Yoda loves Saratoga (4 wins here) and has a right to bounce back here. Gun Pilot, Cagliostro and Twisted Ride all can be used.
6-4-1
Race 12 - The Grade I Allen Jerkens ⭐⭐⭐
I mean…the race formerly known as the King’s Bishop is just loaded. What a race. So many options here and you can make a case for many.
I’ll land on one of the cutback options in Timberlake. Part of that fast Haskell pace and now gets to go shorter. Super Trainer™️ Brad Cox is a gaudy 37% (7 for 19) cutting back at Saratoga over the last five years. But I’d have to go much deeper in mutils.
Domestic Product looked good cutting back. Book’ Em Danno and Little Ni both look good out of the Jersey Shore. Speak Easy has just two races but some buzz about him dating back to the spring. Baffert is always live and has Prince of Monaco in here. I even think Reynolds Channel can hit the board at a price.
My “pick” is Timberlake but this is a deep race where you should not be afraid to bet your opinion. Awesome race.
6-3-2-9
Race 13- The Travers
See above
Race 14
The get-out special. And I have no clever ideas.
Praire Dunes ran too bad to believe last time and drops for a tag. Has faced some good ones.
Treaty Obligation seems obvious dropping for Chad. The runner-up in that last race came back to run a 96 Beyer.
Linda Rice has huge numbers dropping and gets a chance with Deputy Mischief.
12-8-10
One of the best racing cards of the year.
Good luck if you’re playing. Safe trips for all.
Redemption
Good luck, Mut. I sorta wish I was there, but I won't miss the crowd. Say hi to all my friends at the table.