As has happened seemingly every day of the Saratoga meet, it rained on Wednesday.
Races were off the turf and the steeplechase race was canceled.
And has happened so often this summer as the track is drying out after another storm, speed was good. On this day, very good. Like, comically good. A true “speed bias.”
The easy thing to do is complain about it, complain about the quality of racing, complain about the scratches that really shorten the fields. These things probably have some merit, and social media was filled to the brim with those complaints Wednesday.
The harder thing to do, which will take some work but hopefully pay off for your account balance down the road, is to go back and look at the charts for the races Wednesday from Saratoga. Note the horses that took advantage of that speed bias. Note the horses that, on paper made sense, but didn’t have a fair shot because they were trying to come from off the pace. Add those horses to your watch list, stable mail, etc. If you use DRF Formulator, note the day was favorable to speed.
When they run back, I’ll be giving credit to horses that ran against the bias. And downgrading the horses that used it to their advantage. It’s something we’ve noted this meet on horses coming from Ellis Park to Saratoga this summer. And betting against those “speed bias” horses shipping in has for sure been profitable.
By doing this, you’re doing something that I’d say fewer than 15% of horseplayers do. Probably closer to 10%. And even less than that if we’re talking about everyone betting on racing at Saratoga on a normal day.
Is it guaranteed to make you money down the road? Nope. But it’s certainly more productive than complaining about it if the goal is to make money in the long run.
That’s my goal here. Hopefully yours, too.
Our Two-Minute Pick from Wednesday, Souper Catch, is a horse that ran well against the bias. Was well off the pace into the far turn and was able to make a sustained move to get third on a day where there was just no passing in the lane late.
Paid $7.70 to show at 8-1 when the top choices faltered. He’s a nine-year-old horse running in lower-level claimers, so who knows where he ends up next. But assuming he gets a decent layoff after three races in Saratoga this summer, and then ends up back at a similar level, he’ll be a horse to elevate next time given his trip and the way the track played Wednesday.
TODAY’S STACK IS PRESENTED BY NYRA BETS
Closing Week!
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Six race days to go - now is the time!
Just Race 6 off the turf today. Please note that some high-profile jockeys have headed to Kentucky Downs, so you’ll see some different names riding not only today but likely this weekend.
Since you asked, I thought the #8 horse in Race 2 (Hidden Class) and the #8 horse in Race 8 (All About Tonite) at Kentucky Downs both had interesting trips on debut at Saratoga and might be worth a look.
As for Saratoga, some ideas for your Thursday.
Race 2:
#1 Life Talk a likely winner, but #5 Dorothy’s Dreams ran on well in her debut against a next-out winner. Might be close to 8-1. 1-5-4
Race 3:
#7 Road to Remember exits a race with a super fast pace and could lead them a long way here at a fair price.
Race 5:
# 12 Saline River has been working with a talented horse for Brad Cox and drops to the MDCL. 12-14-10-9
Race 7:
Going to use both #2 Gala Brand and #7 Nomos as As in the late Pick 5. Both Clement horses (2,8) also look like horses you have to use somewhere.
Race 9:
Trainer stats and a trip point to our Two-Minute Pick Presented by NYRA Bets.
Good luck if you’re playing. Go UConn.
Oh, well. Mott horse perfectly positioned in the first, had nothing when they reached the lane.
Mott in the first race. 10 minutes to post.