Saratoga Stack 8.31.24

Picks for all 13 races on the final Saturday of the Saratoga Summer

Just three days to get all the money at Saratoga.

After some wet weather later today, Sunday and Monday look great and the cards are brimming with solid betting opportunities.

Was alive to three horses in the Pick 4 that ended the Travers last Saturday. All were paying pretty well and would have made the day a winning one. I wrote in my handicapping for that race that if Fierceness won the Travers, I’d lose.

Well, Fierceness won.

And I lost.

He ran one of his good races. And given their prices, he was pretty good value. Thorpedo Anna ran huge against the boys. Sierra Leone keeps disappointing and was wildly overbet.

Can’t wait to see Anna live at Parx in a few weeks for the Cotillion.

The highlight of the day - both as an experience and for my account balance - was handing out Arro Smash with the Barstool guys.

Had three of the first four winners on top Travers Day.

After that…blah.

Was planning on attacking the last Pick 5 today, but the forecast calls for rain and I’ll have to decide later today.

Picks for all 13 races below.

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Raced noted with ⭐⭐⭐ are horses I’m excited to bet today.

Race 1
Watch the board for money on the firsters. Guessing 6-5 ML Printer’s Alley (shoutout Nashville) will be live here. Friday Surprise makes sense off the first two starts. Executive Order looks quick based on the works. Nothing clever but again, watch where the money gets bet.

4-3-7

Race 2
Statesman has massive turf breeding and ran okay on dirt first time out. Other turf pedigrees in here too - Royal Presence, Battle Drum, Gotta Guy, and certainly Academy if that one gets in here (also entered at Kentucky Downs). Will focus my money on Statesman but again - watch the board.

6-4-10

Race 3
There looks like very little pace in here and for that reason happy to focus on Twisted Filigree and Heymackit’sjack. Both could wire this turf sprint - the race two back for Twisted Filigree probably wins this. Your Man Alex fits here. Again, nothing clever.

3-8-6

Race 4
Over the last three years, Chad Brown has racked up a gaudy 43% (9 for 21) in MDC < $40k at Saratoga. That’s enough for me in a bad race - both Chads in play with Torpedo Run and Confabulation. Forced Error gets back to the right surface. Rudy’s horse (Shakin the Belle) will be massively overbet and happy to toss in the Early Pick 5.

2-7-9

Race 5
Federal Judge vs. Accretive is a fun way to end the early Pick 5. I prefer Federal Judge - who ran big off the layoff and had every right to tire late. Cuts back half a furlong and look loose on TimeForm Pace numbers. Accretive in for a tag is obvious. Top Gunner could get a good trip off his stable mate and with slight improvement could be a factor.

5-6

Race 6 ⭐⭐⭐
It has been the summer of Dylan Davis - as predicted by Dave Portnoy when the Saratoga meet began. I don’t think we’ll get 8-1 because of all the Dylan buzz, but why can’t Moonlight Promises blast off in here? Sire was a speedball. Turf on the dam side. Has been entered twice on the turf with both races getting rained off. Mark Casse has had a big meet. Bourbon Milk Punch has plenty of turf pedigree and goes for a trainer that gets them to run early. Brindi a player after a good debut. If Yesterday gets in off the AE list, do not ignore.

3-7-6

Race 7
Really tough race. Now third off the layoff, Cara’s Time okay strong here. In great form and can be on or near the lead. How about 10-1 Best Impression as a price player? Trouble on debut, then a winner. Now training well coming in and could sit just off the pace.

5-3-4-9

Race 8 ⭐⭐⭐
WATCH THE BOARD! Tap Into This is a half to the speedy Extra Anjejo. Typical Asmussen good work than maintenance jog into this. The trainer is 7-2-2-0 with maiden two-year-olds at the meet. Our Favorite Son working well with rocketship Too Sharp. Phillip Bauer and Rigby Racing have been 🔥🔥🔥 this summer. Makes Sense working well for the debut, as is Capricious Outcome (looks turf meant). I Got Game a player if he gets in.

3-9-4-7

Race 9
I feel like Mike Maker controls this race with two pace horses outside in Samburu and Laurel Valley. Either one could wire this field and will use both here for sure. Barrage fits this race, as does Ramblin’ Wreck. Tough race to start the Late Pick 5 and I’ll have to go deep to try and get through.

9-6-10-3

Race 10
The race goes through Two Sharp and a repeat of her last race makes her uber tough. Will be the one I’m leaning on if I play the Pick 5. Tricky Temper is a player. After being scratched early in the meet, we finally get to see Brightwork back on the track. DRF Clockers like some of the recent works. Might be an okay price off the layoff.

7-9-3

Race 11 ⭐⭐⭐
A very fun edition of the Spinaway. I thought Quietside ran one of the best two-year-old races of the summer but the post does her no favors. The Queens M G has beat me twice this summer but have to use as a backup in the Pick 5. Strong State ran very well last time, gets Irad and will be a price. Salted is a maiden but if you think there is a lot of pace in here, she might be the best close.

I wanted to bet #7 Pondering. Go watch her MSW win at Ellis - that was a very professional debut. In hand late, the jockey comes to Saratoga for this race. The eye says this horse is really good and at 6-1, I’m firing.

Tough race.

7-11-6-9

Race 12 ^⭐⭐⭐
I guess War Like Goddess deserves to be favored. Legit A. Loves Saratoga. Has all the class. BUT…it feels like a day to finally be with Charlie Appleby and Eternal Hope. Should be able to sit off of the Chad Brown rabbit Idea Generation. We might finally get an okay price on an Appleby runner. Parnac has a few races that put her in the mix and you get Dylan Davis at a price.

4-1-3

Race 13
Don’t have a lot of confidence this race will be on the turf with rain in the forecast. If we do run on the green, why can’t Devilsgotcause wire this group? Is fast early an is 110 TFUS fig is the best in the group. Luis Saez should just blast off and try to wire. Heathguard goes for a trainer named Roy Lerman, who used to get one or two bombs home at Saraotga but is now 0-33 at Saratoga the last five years. BUT…very wide in his last two, he might be the one running at the end at a huge price. Linda Rice deadly off the claim and Kick a Buck makes sense. Jhirch a player for Motion.

7-2-9-6 on the turf.

On the dirt
I still might play Devilsgotcause. Strapped and Khala on the MTO list have to be used, too, if we’re off the turf

7-15-16

That’s your 13-race card. Tail or toss!

Let’s hope NYRA speeds up the post times and we get all these races in before the rain.

Good luck if you’re playing. Safe trips for all.