Saratoga Stack 8.4.23

Blaming only myself. Lots of rain Friday.

Photo by Connor Gan on UnsplashB

You know what you’re getting into when you place a bet.

Whether it’s football or golf or horses. There are lots of ways for the bet to win. And you KNOW there are probably more ways that bet is going to lose. No one is putting a gun to your head when you place the bet, so it’s silly to blame anyone when that bet doesn't get home.

When it comes to horses, blaming the jockey is a particularly popular pastime.

I found myself doing that Thursday after our Two Minute Pick, Mr. Kringle, did not show great speed early in Race 5 at Saratoga.

Our pick (10-1 off a 12-1 morning line) figured to be on or near the lead in a race where there was not a lot on confirmed pace early. He had done exactly that in recent races, posted way outside and battling fast fractions. It stood that today he’d be in a better post-position, go to the front and try and hang on late.

Instead, well, I’ll let the chart tell the story.

MR. KRINGLE bumped with a rival at the start, was reserved on the inside, shifted three wide late on the far turn, swung five wide at the quarter-pole, was driven between foes in upper stretch and earned the show while no threat to the top two.

Two other horses took advantage and went to the front, ran 1-2 around the track and completed the exacta. We ran third after Mr. Kringle came running late, paying a healthy $7.00 to show.

Maybe the bump was the early issue? Maybe apprentice jockey Jamie Torres messed up? Maybe trainer John Terranova gave instructions not to go?

Either way, I knew that was a possibility when I bet the horse. A lot of things can go wrong, which is why I try to bet on prices and not big favorites when I can avoid them.

In this case, I was against the two morning-line favorites - both of whom ran out of the trifecta - so not cashing when I got that part right added to the frustration.

Then in the day’s finale, the same Jamie Torres took a 12-1 shot right to the front and wired the field, paying $27.20 on top and beating home our top two picks to key a $137 trifecta. Nice call by Steve Byk on the winner.

As for the rest of the day

• Think it is fair to say that the rail was not the place to be on the main track Thursday. It is probably worth it to go make notes on the horses that spent a lot of time on it. Pipeline comes to mind. Someday when I charge you for this, I’ll do the work for you.

• Good commentary on Fox Sports from Gary Stevens on the very rank War Like Goddess in the feature. Not sure what Joel Rosario was supposed to do and given how much she wanted to go on, finishing second was not a bad result.

• Bill Mott has five wins over last week. 🔥🔥🔥

Friday’s card will see races 2,4,10 AND 11 OFF THE TURF. For now, the two stakes are still on. Have some friends in Saratoga for the Whitney and they report multiple storms and more rain likely for Friday afternoon.

Our Two Minute Pick presented by NYRA Bets comes in Race 8 - The Hall of Fame Stakes.

Nailed the thumbnail. Again.

Race 1: Ludwig at 3-1 or better.

Race 6: Small shot against Linda (#6) with #3 Assertive Attitude.

Race 7: Great race. Going to mess with a 20-1 shot in #5 Allamericanbeauty. Showed real fight winning two back at Keeneland. Blinkers on, big works and Johnny V. 5-4-9-7

Race 9: #4 to wire them at a price. Finger Lakers shipper alert. 4-5-6-7

Race 10: #7 Amani’s Eagle over the MTOs.

Race 11: Team Linda outside.

Back to work on the weekend cards. Good luck if you’re playing. Comments open below.