Saratoga Stack 8.9.23
The second half of summer meet begins
Nineteen down and another twenty-one to go. Weather permitting, of course.
The unofficial halftime at Saratoga these last few days. The first four weeks of the meet are in the books. Four more to go.
Our First Half Stats
We caught a winner in our pick Sunday, closing the book on our Two Minute Picks for the first half of the meet.
18-3-2-2 (-$37.10, based on a $2 WPS bet on each pick)
One good week and we’re showing a profit, but the numbers are what they are. Not great.
To answer a question I’ve gotten a few times - yes I’ve bet on every one of my picks. So yes, my personal bankroll is very much in the red for the first half of the meet.
I’m not happy with the way I’m playing or handicapping, so I’m going to be changing my approach for the second half of the meet. We’ll see how it plays out. Small changes to the process - both on capping and betting.
The meet’s first half ended with the last four grass races taken off the turf late Sunday. From the Daily Racing Form:
Management solicited the opinion of several riders following Sunday’s fifth race, and though there was not a consensus among the jockeys about the condition of the turf, management made the decision to halt turf racing for the day.
“NYRA, sensing that there was concern, decided to remove those races, and we’ll be evaluating the condition of the turf courses,” said Pat McKenna, NYRA’s vice president for communications.
For sure the right call but the timing - as they were loading horses into the gate - didn’t make a lot of sense for those betting on the races. I’m sure if they had it to do over again, they’d delay the race 5-10 minutes after that announcement.
It sounds like they could be off the turf for a couple of days at Saratoga, thanks to the extended rain and turf condition.
Update: Yep, off the turf Wednesday. Some speculation they’ll stay off until Friday.
Race 3- 5.5 furlongs Race 4- 1 1/4 miles Race 6-5.5 furlongs Race 10- 1 mile
Some ideas on the Wednesday card:
UPDATE - I SEE WE’RE SCRATCHED OUT OF THE 7TH.
Our new Two Minute Pick comes in Race 5. #5 Shimmering Allure should be set for a top effort in the third career start.
Race 5: That Ellis race where ML favorite Zadorsky comes out of might not be any good. #9 Crazy Cami was running late on debut and gets blinkers. Could have been with the track that day, one that was kind to closers. #5 Shimmering Allure has speed and just got nailed last time on a day where speed was not holding at Ellis. 5-9-8-3
Race 7: I think we found a good bet here - it’s our Two Minute Pick Presented by NYRA Bets. Two Minute Picks from the Porch!
UPDATE - SCRATCHED
Race 8: From In the Money Media’s Nick Tammaro
Feels like to spot to go against another Chad favorite. #5 Pharoah’s Heart has the speed to take command early. #1 Into Happiness has shown new speed and versatility for the trainer. 5-3-1
Race 9: I have to lose a few bucks on #3 Know It All Audrey after her trip in the last. Nice re-rally after a check heading into the far turn. #2 Sunset Louise can take it to this group from the gate. 3-2-5 (Betsy Blue might scratch for Friday)
Race 10: #12 Chulligan would have been my play on the turf after a trip last time. Now getting back on dirt, this son of Bar of Gold is still my pick. MTOs also make a lot of sense 12-14-15-11
Should also note that both Irad and Jose Ortiz are off their mounts until Saturday, serving “careless riding” suspensions. This means you’re likely to get a slightly better price on any horse Irad would have been on.
Some good opportunities today - let’s take advantage. Good luck if you’re playing.