2024 Breeders' Cup Final Thoughts

Betting ideas for a huge day of racing at Del Mar

A couple of quick thoughts before we talk Breeders’ Cup Saturday at Del Mar.

• While Del Mar favored speed this summer, I did not see enough yesterday to think that you can’t win from off the pace. It will still be worth watching the early races today to see if that changes.

• Don’t marry yourself to the morning line odds. As we saw multiple times Friday, some of them are just way off. Making a morning line is hard, and I would not want to do it. But don’t lock yourself into a price in the program.

• Ryan Moore showed why he’s one of the best jockeys in the world, particularly with his ride on Lake Victoria.

• On the other hand, the ride Joel Rosario gave Joanthan’s Way made no sense. Had a good early position and just gave it up and took the horse off what was a pretty slow pace.

As for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup card, we have a podcast for you that covers all nine races with picks and prices for each race.

There is much more detail on the podcast, but for those who just want picks to tail or trash, I did the work for you.

The rule is if you cash, you must subscribe and share.

It’s bad karma if you don’t. I didn’t make the rules, sorry.

A great betting card awaits. You just have to right once or twice to score out.

Let’s focus on three races I’m excited to bet on Saturday.

Race 8 - The Breeders’ Cup Classic

Here’s a look at the projected odds for the race, based on the Juvenile/Classic double will-pays, courtesy of Marshall Gramm.

I am not surprised that Forever Young is favored in here - he’s being touted by many handicappers, including myself. Fierceness the second choice in the will pays…that is surprising.

I don’t want City of Troy here, even at say 6-1. Never raced on dirt. Has all turf breeding. Has not been super impressive in the mornings based on the reports from Del Mar. I’m not biting.

The voice of Finger Lakes and my tag team partner for the Breeders’ Cup bash at Mohegan Sun “The Big A” Anthony Stabile LOVES City of Troy today. He wins, I lose. And will be out of the Late Pick 5 that starts with this race.

Fierceness is a solid horse, but can he really rate off of Arthur’s Ride? And isn’t Derma Sotogake also going to be involved, especially with the added blinkers today? He’d have to wire this group and I don’t see that happening.

Next is a great story and I’ll be rooting for him and will use underneath.

That leaves me with Forever Young. I like Forever Young here. I don’t love the 3-1 or 7/2 price we’re going to get. But his prep race for this was solid and he showed he can be closer than he was in the Derby. He’s coming into the race in good form and if he’s able to sit off the speed early from the rail draw, he should be able to swing out in the lane and be there at the end. He’s my top choice even at 3-1.

Do not ignore Highland Falls. He hounded Arthur’s Ride all the way in the JCGC and still had something in the tank late. He’s bred to love the mile and a quarter and has the speed to be involved early. When SuperTrainer™️ Brad Cox gets a horse into good form, watch out. He’s a must-use for me and win contender at a big price.

I’ve also warmed up to Ushba Tesoro this week. He’s been in the exacta in 8 of 9 going this distance and his Timeform speed figures put him in the mix. He’ll be flying late. As will Sierra Leone.

It’s a fascinating race on paper and here’s hoping it lives up to the hype.

1-2-7-14 for me in the Classic.

Race 12 - The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

If you forced me to give you my best bet for the day, I’d take Domestic Product in Dirt Mile. There is a ton of speed in here and he should get a great set-up.

I guess they could have opted for the one-turn Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but I’ll trust in Chad Brown here. I’ve always liked this horse and 3-1 seems fair given his talent.

Post Time should also benefit from a crazy pace. Of the speeds, I like Saudi Crown the most and could see him win or hold on for a piece.

9-8-1

Race 10 - The Breeders’ Cup Sprint

Another race that should feature a fast pace and a meltdown potential. Give me the 20-1 Gun Pilot here. Trainer Steve Asmussen is lights out with dirt sprinters - over the last five years he’s 14 for 55 (25%) in Grade Is and his horses have run in the money 60% of the time. He surprised many at 7-1 in a Grade I on Debry Day and he can do it again here at a bigger price. Cuts back to 6F and should be flying late.

Would use Federal Judge, Nakatomi, Remake, and Skelly in exactas.

2 / 3-4-9-11

You can see my ideas for the other six BC races in the picks grid above.

I will be betting #7 Invigorated in Race 1. Bred for turf and should be a decent price.

I’ll be active on X.com during the day from the Mohegan Sun’s FanDuel Sportsbook. Mohegan Sun continues to focus on the horseplayer during racing’s biggest days and the place will be jammed all day.

Good luck if you’re playing today. And safe trips for all.