Friday Four-Pack 10.4.24

Patriots have a Mutiny Gate. Sox keep selling Fenway Park. Boston media gossip. NFL Picks!

So this is kind of a wild one.

Evan Lazar covers the Patriots - for the Patriots - at Patriots.com

Thursday on his Catch-22 Podcast with Alex Barth, Lazar made headlines by suggesting the Patriots locker room was ‘teetering on mutiny.’ Here’s the clip.

That’s a big headline from someone employed by the team. Not surprisingly, the soundbite got run on both WEEI and 98.5 The Sports Hub. Naturally, Patriots fans on social media went nuts - again, a team employee using the word mutiny on a team podcast is a big deal. I get it.

As things started to heat up later Thursday, the video version of the podcast disappeared. As of Friday morning, it does not exist on the team’s YouTube page with all the other Catch-22 shows.

There is an audio-only version of the podcast available on the team’s website - and that version appears to have been edited to take out the “mutiny” line altogether.

Lazer made his scheduled appearance on Joe Murray’s 98.5 The Sports Hub show and opened the interview explaining he got “carried away” with his choice of words on the podcast.

Team employee says something negative. There’s editing and then a public apology.

Best case scenario here - Lazar realized he was too aggressive in his word choice RE: the team’s locker room. He freaked out. Went to the Pats media team and asked them to edit the “mutiny” part out. And then made sure to publically denounce his own word choice on one of the highest-rated radio shows in Boston.

Worst case scenario here - Someone from the Patriots organization heard this and went into full spin control. They gave Lazar a talking-to. They - not Lazar - pulled the video. Then they edited the audio. And then they made sure to have Lazar start his hit with Murray backtracking on his own words.

In that first scenario…I kinda get it. The kid got nervous. The clip got MASSIVE attention right away, he tried to downplay it.

That second scenario…woof. The idea the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS are monitoring a team podcast for things to edit out is sad: especially a throw-away line/word choice like that. And then making sure he retracts it all on the team’s flagship radio station hours later? That’s almost too sad to believe.

But I kind of believe it.

The team’s reputation has been taking on water for years, even before the move from Bill Belichick to Jerod Mayo and Eliot Wolf. We just read a few weeks ago how important the Pro Football Hall of Fame is to Robert Kraft. We saw how important image was to the Krafts in the form of the Apple TV docuseries that they ended up having complete creative control over. Is it really that crazy to think that Patriots management and ownership - off to a brutal 1-3 start and looking like the worst team in the NFL - would be sensitive to a team employee going all Tom Jackson “They hate their coach?”

Not really.

At least on social media, fans seem to believe the team stepped in here. I’m with them.

It’s worth noting I spoke with multiple media members who either cover or covered the Patriots and the belief there is the kid just said something stupid and realized it himself.

Either way, it’s a bad look for a team off the field, to go along with their terrible look on the field through the first four games of what has been a forgettable, boring season.

Meanwhile, let’s hit on the on-the-field Patriots. Sam Kennedy annoyed me, again. Plus media and sports betting notes to go along with Week 5 NFL Picks.

All ahead in today’s Four-Pack.

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Join Mut Live at Mohegan Sun!

Get real-time analysis and expert predictions from Mut, Eytan Shander, and special guests live from the Mohegan Sun FanDuel Sportsbook.

Be there in-person, stream it on the OddsShopper YouTube page, or listen on your favorite podcast app.

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On the Red Sox season-ending press conference…

It’s not insane, Gordo - it’s embarrassing that John Henry could not be bothered to show up for Joe’s last game this past Sunday. This is a guy who used to love baseball - and baseball on the radio - according to Henry himself. From 2001-

"You know, I probably got into my business because of growing up with batting averages," Henry says. "I grew up on farms in Arkansas and Illinois, listening to Harry Caray call Cardinals games on KMOX. And listening to the stats, I learned to figure out the batting averages in my head."

But with all due respect to Joe, it’s even more embarrassing that Henry could not show his face and take questions at the team’s end-of-season press conference the next day. Hardly surprising, but still an embarrassment.

No Tom Werner, either. Just Alex Cora, Craig Breslow, and Sam Kennedy.

Later in the week Kennedy, of course, defended Henry for not being there while also defending the owner’s absentee approach to the Boston Red Sox.

"There is this perception of John, largely driven by people who aren't dealing with him, who don't talk to him regularly, that somehow he's not actively involved."

- Sam Kennedy on Fenway Rundown.

Henry has not taken questions from the media since January 2022. He no longer talks at spring training or in these end-of-the-season pressers. He picks and chooses when to occasionally respond to a reporter or media outlet via email.

As far as his responsibility as an owner to speak to the media - and to the fans who spend their hard-earned money on his baseball time - Henry has been nothing but an absentee owner for years. His approach has been indefensible.

But I digress. It was a boilerplate 💤💤💤40-plus minute presser, with the team unwilling to commit to increasing payroll because it might be a competitive disadvantage to talk about their spending 🙄🙄🙄.

The most annoying answer came about 15 minutes in when Kennedy was asked by a younger reporter (I don’t know who it was) about the team’s recent drought of real “winning.”

The reporter alluded to all the World Series wins since 2004 and now, since the team is not winning, concluded with

“How do you develop the next generation of Red Sox fans?”
“How do you give them (younger Red Sox fans) something to believe in when they haven’t seen those (World Series) wins?”

There’s a very simple one-word answer to that question - WIN.

The longer answer might be something like “We need to win championships. The fans deserve that and we’re going to do everything we can to make sure this younger generation enjoys those championships that older fans experienced.”

Kennedy…took a different approach.

“Yeah, that’s a great question. One of the most important things we do is provide accessibility to Fenway Park for young people. Probably everybody in this room fell in love with baseball because of our ability to either go to a major league park or a minor league park…so accessibility to Fenway Park is massively important to us, we think about it each and every day. And then you get to come in and experience the magic of this place, and you also experience the core group that we have, players Jarren Duran and Willy Abreu…seeing Trevor Story come back…and Raffy…night in and night out…the building blocks of that next great Red Sox team, we hope, are there and in place. We also, I would tell that next generation, that we have the right group and leadership in our baseball operation. We’ve got Bres and Alex Cora commited here for the longterm and that’s a really great thing for Red Sox fans.”

A COMMERCIAL FOR FENWAY PARK! AGAIN!

There’s a line in the classic film Seabiscuit, where the character Marcela Zabala (played by Elizabeth Banks) is speaking with Charles Howard (played by the great Jeff Bridges).

Howard’s friends drag him to Mexico after the death of his son and subsequent divorce from his first wife. It’s portrayed as a vacation of sorts after all the trauma in Howard’s life: something to take his mind off of things.

“Those guys,” Zabala quips. “They think everything is fixed with a party.”

I truly believe Sam Kennedy believes everything is fixed by Fenway Park. Because I guess in his mind, even if the team is not truly contending, fans will still want to go to Fenway. That’s the safety net.

I hate that approach. It reeks of sales and marketing over baseball - and it’s the cologne that emanates from Kennedy every time he speaks.

Over the last three seasons - with an expanded Wild Card and an easier-than-ever path to the playoffs - the Red Sox are now one of just nine teams that have not qualified for postseason play: 70% of teams have made it. The Sox have not.

Yes, there is a core of good players here to build on and break thru to October baseball in 2025. But I’ve seen too many of these empty end-of-season pressers - like Mondays - followed up with no action in the offseason. At this point, I need to see it to believe it. Red Sox fans deserve to see winning prioritized over the promotion on the home team’s ballpark.

For a much more reasoned and rational reaction to the season and what’s next, fellow Substack journalist Red Sox Stats has a must-read breakdown. Great choice for the cover photo, Stats.

Meandering Thoughts as 2024 Ends

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On the first quarter 23.5% of the Patriots season…

I had this whole section planned for a few days but in editing on Friday morning, it sucked. Like, really bad.

This might suck too. But instead of what I had planned and in honor of the team’s 1-3 start, here’s one thing I like about the team and three things I hate after four weeks of mind-numbingly boring football.

HATE - OC Alex Van Pelt. Can’t figure out how to get the ball out quickly to avoid his quarterbacks getting killed. Not enough touches for his second-best offensive weapon (Antonio Gibson). Why did he waste that great hook and ladder play in a blowout loss to the 49ers? Why is it so hard to complete passes? No team in the NFL runs the ball more in neutral-pace situations than his offense…can we mix it up, Alex? Can we try and get Pop Douglas the ball at some point?

HATE - Eliot Wolf’s approach. I think it was Phil Perry who said this week, “There is no team in the NFL that would trade rosters with you.” 100% right and that sums up how bad it is. When it comes to the OL, was Wolf just lazy or did he misjudge the talent? I’d love to be right there with all of you PLAY DRAKE MAYE fans, but the OL is so, so bad. They’ve allowed a 50% pressure rate over the last two weeks. A rookie QB can’t live or succeed behind a line like that - especially a QB who still had some things to work on coming out of college. It’s worth noting Aaron Rodgers applauded the team’s patience with Maye this week in a media appearance. My guess is we would have seen Maye Sunday if Wolf had even built a slightly below-average line in front of him - especially since Miami’s D-Line is nothing special. Instead, it’s the worst OL in the NFL. And the worst overall roster. And the most painful team to watch play every week. Which leads me to-

HATE - My wife has bailed on this team. This affects ME. When the team was good, she would watch games, and do some school work…and maybe not realize that her husband was settling in for seven hours of uninterrupted football each week. This team? She has 0% interest and is wondering out loud if I really need to watch both the 1 PM and the 4 PM game every Sunday, “Since you think the team stinks anyways.” This is not good. The Pats sucking is affecting me at home.

LIKE - If you watch and listen closely, you’re starting to see and hear which reporters are talking to Mayo and which reporters are talking to Wolf. Both sides are clearly whispering their opinions to certain reporters. With Belichick, you never got his side locally because he only spilled the tea to national guys. Sure, the Kraft spin was out there for the local media to push, but not the coach. Now, we’re getting both. It’s been fun to keep track of - more fun than watching the team. Camp Mayo vs. Camp Eliot.

I know it’s early in the season and the weather is nice, but I wonder if a bevy of empty seats Sunday at Gillette Stadium might alert the Krafts that the fans are not really enjoying the 2024 season.

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On your sports media and sports betting notebook…

From the X.com account of Roger Clemens

…It was a good send-off for Joe Castiglione on Sunday. It sounded like Will Flemming got more emotional than Joe did there at the end of the broadcast, Castig’s final game as the full-time Voice of the Red Sox. Joe, Will, Sean McDonough, and a host of former players and friends of Joe made for an eventful weekend. Castig will be around the team plenty, including games in the Legends Suite and potentially even filling in on the radio broadcasts in 2025.

…It was telling Monday when Kennedy invoked Will Flemming by name in that press conference. It was not an accident - many believe Flemming is now considered the favorite to land the Red Sox radio job. I’m inclined to believe them after Kennedy mentioned him - you’re not doing that if Will is not part of the plan. Unless there is a big disagreement over money, it feels like Castiglione will indeed pass the baton to Will as the next Sox radio voice.

Kennedy confirmed what we were first to report here months ago, that going forward the Red Sox will have control of the radio booth like they do the NESN TV booth. WEEI might still produce and sell inventory in the games, but I believe Will and others will be employed directly by the Red Sox, not Audacy, beginning in 2025. That’s a change.

I don’t expect this thing to drag on into the New Year as it did this year when Flemming saw his job posted on Indeed.com by Mike Thomas and Audacy.

My best guess is Dave O’Brien as the TV voice. Will as the radio voice. And former players moving between NESN and WEEI to provide color commentary.

…While former afternoon show host Meghan Ottolini is scheduled to host occasionally at night, there is no plan for her to become WEEI’s full-time night host. Nights at WEEI are likely to be fill-in and weekend voices until they figure out what the plan is in afternoon drive.

…On that front, heard this week that WEEI has reached out to a few Sports Hub weekend hosts about coming over to WEEI. For afternoon drive? Not sure, exactly. But after the dreams of Rich Shertenlieb and then Chris Gasper faded away, WEEI is scrambling a bit. I’m told there is frustration from many involved on what to do with the show moving forward.

…Last night’s Sportsbook Live at Mohegan Sun started with me defending my kids’ ability to read the Daily Racing Form. It ended with a birthday cake. We eventually made some NFL and College Football Picks. Watch for free right here.

…Yet another shot from Fred Toucher at his former co-host Rich Shertenlieb.

…If you’re in Massachusetts and betting sports with Bovada, note that the state sent a cease and desist to the operator as part of a crackdown on non-legal US sportsbooks.

…Pete Rose should not be in MLB’s Hall of Fame. As manager, he bet on his own team, but not every night. So what message was he sending to bookies and bettors when he didn’t bet on his team? I think you know the answer. But I love that he was a fellow degen - and took one of the most brutal horse racing beats you’ll ever see.

…Those looking for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in primetime on Nov 2 will be disappointed with the news Thursday that for a second straight year, the biggest race of the year for older horses in America will be run early and with four more Breeders’ Cup races after it. It’s a 5:41 EST post for the Classic, thanks in part to the rabid popularity of college football. From DRF.com and Matt Haggerty - “The scheduling of four races after the Classic is an acknowledgment of the new reality in Saturday sports broadcasting. Major networks, including Breeders’ Cup’s broadcast partner, NBC, have made major financial commitments to college football, and the Classic’s late-afternoon post time guarantees a broadcast window on NBC’s flagship station.”

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On our Week 4 NFL Picks…

Week 3: 1-2
Season Record: 6-6 (blah)

The public continues to get buried this NFL this season.

NFL public sides (51%+ of bets) are now 22-39-2 ATS after the Falcons OT win last night. Action Network’s Evan Abrams reports this is the worst start ATS for the public in the last 20 years. Yikes.

But you know who has been on fire? The Sharps they’re tracking at SharpHunter. Their public picks were 3-0 Wednesday night. And then 3-0 again on Thursday. 🔥🔥🔥. Great week to check them out! ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Sharp Hunter shows you where the actual sharp money is going by aggregating the best picks from sharp bettors, giving you access to winning insights and trends. That does not mean every bet with a Sharp Score always wins, but I love knowing who the informed gamblers are betting on... even if I want to bet against them.

Sharp Hunter is offering a free 7-day trial to kick off the NFL Season with MutStack.com. They offer three-day, monthly, and annual subscriptions after that. Perfect for the football season - and the baseball playoff push and post-season. Get started for free right here ➡️➡️➡️ Sharp Hunter.

The Side
Denver -2.5 vs. Las Vegas (-110, FanDuel)
Hey, we actually hit one of these! We’ll try to make it two in a row by backing Bo Nix at home. It doesn’t feel great, I get it, but hear me out. First, on the Raiders - this is a bad spot for Vegas. DVOA’s 25th-ranked defense (27th vs. the pass and 25th vs. the run) could be without Maxx Crosby as he recovers from an ankle injury. Even if he does play, it does not sound like he’ll be 100%. Linebacker Devine Diablo also banged up. On the offensive side, Davante Adams wants out and is unlikely to play. The Broncos’ defense (DVOA #5) should be able to feast here at home against Minshew and have a huge advantage up front. Writing this up, it feels more like an anti-Vegas play than a pro-Denver play but I’m okay with that. Grab the -2.5 before it goes to -3 this weekend.

The Total
Dolphins at Patriots UNDER 36.5 (-110, everywhere)
Through the first four weeks of the NFL season, there are three teams tied for last in the NFL with just four offensive touchdowns scored each: the Dolphins and Patriots are two of those three. At 31st (MIA) and 29th (NE) in DVOA offense, safe to say these teams will struggle to score on Sunday. Not only are the Pats bad, but they’re slow. Per FTN Pace Tools, they’re the 4th-slowest team in the NFL in neutral pace situations. Their run % in those same situations is the highest in the NFL (55.2%). The Dolphins are not far behind in 6th (51.5%). The Pats OL stinks and even if they wanted to pass, they’re allowing massive pressure. And we have a nice trend in our favor - totals of less than 40 since 2020 are 32-12-1 to the UNDER.

The Prop
Tyler Conklin OVER REC YARDS (SHOP AROUND/PLAYABLE UP TO 26.5 YARDS)
Tyler Conklin's revenge game! Seriously, this is a good spot for the former Viking. Conklin saw a season-high eight targets from Aaron Rodgers last week. His 14 targets the past two weeks are tied for fifth-most among tight ends. In both games, the guys who watch the tape suggest Conklin was a ‘first-read’ for Rodgers on a bunch of those targets. The Vikings’ defense has allowed the 6th-most receptions to tight ends on the year, to go along with the 10-most yards per game. Nice piece for your Sunday morning London game same-game-parlays.

We have for sure said it all.

Good luck with all your weekend bets. And thanks for reading.

Good weekend.