Friday Four-Pack 11.29.24

Juan Soto to the Red Sox? Did Mick Marks break another huge story? A must-read for sports bettors. Week 13 NFL Picks!

Just last week, we told you the story of a little-known podcaster named Mick Marks.

A fixture in the Kirk Minihane Show universe, Marks scooped the local and national media by breaking the news the Boston Bruins would fire head coach Jim Montgomery. He had the story hours before anyone else - and he had the story cold.

Earlier this week Marks broke more news, saying not only would Kristaps Porziņģis start in his return from injury for the Celtics, but he would also play between 20 and 22 minutes.

He started.

He played 22 minutes.

The biggest scoop ever? No. But as he has said repeatedly, he “just reports the news.”

Which brings us to Thanksgiving Day 2024, when Marks posted the above about Juan Soto joining the Boston Red Sox. Over 3.5 million views later, it’s one of the biggest stories in the sports world. And had the national media scrambling. A quick timeline—

MLB gatekeeper Jeff Passan fired back directly at the Marks report, suggesting he made up the story. More on him, below.

Jared Carrabis acknowledged the report before going back for his early dessert.

Marks’ original post got Community Noted on X.com, with users pointing to the Passan post as proof Mick did not have the story correct.

Meanwhile, the guy who first reported on the details of the Red Sox contract extension with Rafael Devers reported the Sox made Soto a HUGE offer.

A few hours after his first report, Marks doubled down on his Soto news with further detail.

That was around 7:30 PM on Thursday night.

So where do we stand on Friday morning?

⚾ Given his recent track record, I have no reason to doubt Marks’ reporting. This is how it works, right? You break a few stories, gain the confidence and trust of others, and then you break the big story. This would be a BIG one.

⚾ As for the Red Sox, they have been loudly telling anyone who would listen that they were prepared to make a big splash this off-season. Remember what Carrbis told me just last week here?

“I’m feeling very confident in that, Mut,” Carrabis told me. “I’ve talked to agents, I’ve talked to players who have met with the Red Sox, and I’ve talked to folks within the Red Sox. It is vastly different this time around compared to last year.”

This would be a huge splash (obviously) and one of the few moves that would immediately create a real buzz for the 2025 Sox season.

⚾ One played linked to the Red Sox spending spree this offseason, Blake Snell, signed with the Dodgers. That’s one less big name for the team to sign.

⚾ What a sad response by Jeff Passan, “I am thankful for reporters who don’t make up stories.” Just say you don’t have the same info. Or that you can’t confirm the report. You don’t have to be a dink about it.

I reached out to Marks for an update Friday morning - he tells me he stands by his report. No surprise.

I’m rooting for him to be right on this. It would be great for the Red Sox. It would be another big scoop for the little guy, Marks. And I’d love to see Jeff Passan eat some crap and have to credit Marks after his snarky response.

Is Marks right again? I guess we’ll find out. But he’s 2 for 2 this week and seems pretty confident in this one.

I have my X.com notifications turned ON for his next report. You (and Jeff Passan) would probably be wise to do the same.

Update - in the final stages of editing today’s Four-Pack, Marks posted this on X.com Friday

Like I said, set up those X.com notifications.

Meanwhile, I hope you had a great Thanksgiving. An abbreviated notesy edition of Friday Four-Pack is below.

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On my conversation with Glenn Ordway…

Appreciate all the feedback on the podcast with The Big O. If you listened, you can hear that he’s still on the top of his game and itching to come back and do something. That’s certainly the impression I got.

We talked for a few minutes after recording and he showed me around his studio in Arizona. He is not messing around. He’s equipped to start doing high-quality audio and video content right away. It sounds like he wants to - in some format - in the very near future. Does not sound like he wants to do “just sports.”

As for the podcast itself -

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On our Week 13 NFL Picks…Presented by Sharp Hunter

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Week 12: 1-2 /// Season Record: 19-17 (52.78%)

Blah. While they were not official picks and won’t count towards the season-long standings, the three updated plays posted here Sunday morning went 3-0.

Just sayin’. It’s worth checking back here on Sunday mornings around 11 AM.

The Side 🏈
SEAHAWKS - 1 AT THE JETS

Couple of things at play here. First, the Seattle defense has really improved under new head coach Mike Maconald: they’re suddenly #13 DVOA. The Cardinals’ offense sputtered last week in Seattle against this defense. Two weeks ago, Seattle’s D held the 49ers to 17 points. Jets #1 RB Breece Hall missed practice Wednesday and his status is uncertain for Sunday. And what is the motivation for Aaron Rodgers here? His team stinks and his owner wanted him benched…do you really think he’s locked and loaded for this one?

Usually, I’d stay away from the Jets coming off the bye, but I can’t see this team putting in any late-season playoff push. They stink.

This feels like a low-scoring affair where Seattle can stop the Jets and potentially control the ball on offense.

The Total 🏈
COMMANDERS V. TITANS UNDER 44.5

After taking a loss on the TEN/HOU under last week, I’m going right back to a TEN UNDER this week. Per FTN’s Pace Numbers, TEN is T-1st as the slowest team in the league sec/snap in neutral pace situations. On the other side, WAS runs the ball 50% of the time in those same situations - 4th most in the NFL. TEN is not far behind in 8th. ETR has the Titans’ games producing the fewest plays per game of any team in the NFL heading into the bulk of Week 13.

The Commanders’ offense has been sputtering and now faces the league’s #9 DVOA defense.

I guess there’s a scenario where Will Levis beats us by tearing up the Commanders’ secondary … or he throws another Pick 6. But given how slow these teams are and the matchup, I’m happy to get this at 44.5. UNDER.

The Prop 🏈
BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 9.5 RUSH YARDS

We added this play last Sunday and with the line again too low, it’s the official prop this week.

He’s cleared this number in 9 of 11 games this season. The Panthers allow 28 RUSH YRDS/GAME to opposing QBs - 6th worst in the NFL. Pretty straightforward handicap.

I’ll update here around 11 AM on Sunday for additional plays and thoughts.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATES:

The Seattle number is all over the place, anywhere from SEA +1.5 (FD) to Jets +1 (BetMGM). I think the Jets are frauds and will still be on SEA here.

I’ve come around on the Rams -2.5 as a solid play today - get their RT back and should score at will in New Orleans. Sharp Hunter agrees.

I can’t bet it, but I like the Colts today.

With Purdy in, OVER 19.5 points at -105 for the 49ers is a play.

Cade Otten, Puca Nacua player prop over. Both are in good spots.

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On your Thanksgiving leftover edition of the notes…

• One of the best long-form reads of the year came this week in Rolling Stone, with David Hill’s deep dive on legalized sports betting in the United States. He talks to bettors, operators, politicians, athletes, and bookies - he hits the topic from every angle. The result is a must-read for anyone who has any interest in sports betting.

• The story spends a lot of time on one of the biggest issues in the industry - sportsbooks limiting winning players. It’s an issue the Massachusetts Gaming Commission is addressing head-on: they recently held meetings about sending “a detailed, but narrow, data request” to Massachusetts sports betting entities about their limited customers. From Hill’s must-read:
  
  The repeal of PASPA made it possible for people in America to make money taking bets, but they turned around and made it nearly impossible for anyone to make money placing bets. If anything, they made it easier than ever to lose.
  
  There is much more in there worth reading when you get a chance this weekend.

• New WEEI Afternoon Show producer Dan Bahl hosted in morning drive on Friday. Not a surprise - we wrote when he was hired he was being brought in to produce afternoons, but also to host shows for WEEI. I listened for about a half hour on Friday and can say The Suffield, CT native sounded … like a sports talk show host.

• I’m confident we’ll have some additional WEEI news here in this space next week. Not breaking news, but interesting.

• I thought Tom Brady sounded pretty good Thursday for Cowboys - Giants. It was a terrible game, but Brady sounded much more natural behind the mic than he did to start the season. I still believe it’s likely he exits TV well before his deal is up, thanks to his ownership in the Raiders, something The Athletic detailed Friday.

And with that, we have side it all.

Back Sunday morning with any NFL betting updates. Since you asked, I like the OVER 42.5 Friday afternoon for the Chiefs/Raiders

Hopefully, you get to watch the game and don’t get stuck fighting the Black Friday Shopping rush. My wife was out there with my mother-in-law before 6 AM this morning. Her official report from the Merrimack Outlets in NH, “Packed.”

Good luck with all your bets this weekend. And thanks for reading. And listening.

Good weekend.