Friday Four-Pack 1.16.26
The Dodgers are not bad for MLB. I'm feeling something for Pats/Texans. A busy week for the Sox. An update on Miss Watermelon, NFL Picks and more!
Note from Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy:
For all 6 of you wondering. Miss Watermelon had mild bone bruising behind and a small ankle chip in the right fetlock. She will need 60 days off. Good prognosis for return. In hindsight, I probably shouldn’t have run her since she wasn’t training well.
Note from Founder of MutStack.com, Mut:
Based on the thousands of views and responses to the Go Go Greys Stable Tour, it’s way more than six. Get well soon, Miss Watermelon, and hope to see her in action this summer at Saratoga.
I am mad about this, but not for the reason you might think.
The biggest villains in North American sports, the LA Dodgers, signed star FA outfielder Kyle Tucker to a four-year, $240 million deal with opt-outs after the 2027 and 2028 seasons. Reports say about $30 million of the money has been deferred, but the AAV will still be the highest ever in MLB.
The Dodgers now have EIGHT players (Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Kyle Tucker, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Tyler Glasnow) all making at least $100 million. Their estimated $413 million payroll would be higher than the Angels and Cubs, COMBINED. Hell, their projected $165 million luxury tax bill would rank as the 19th-highest payroll in baseball next season.
The Red Sox and the rest of the AL East caught a break with Tucker not going to Toronto as projected. But this is clearly the story of the offseason and will dominate the baseball conversation through spring training. Three things I keep coming back to in the hours after the megadeal was announced.
Not mad at the Dodgers, like, at all. We all learned about ‘rules of engagement’ when Maverick went below the hard deck. The rules of engagement in baseball allow you to spend, spend, spend, as long as you’re willing to accept the penalties that come with that spending. A $165 million luxury tax bill is wild and a credit to the Dodgers for footing it. There are many more teams that won’t spend and are happy to collect their share of revenue and tax sharing. Selfishly, I wish the Red Sox spent like this. And if baseball fans are being honest, they wish their teams spent like this, too.
This is GREAT for baseball. You need teams and players to hate in sports. The Dodgers have become the most hateable team, not just in baseball, but maybe in any sport in the country. They’re the old Yankees in 2026. The 2025 World Series was the most globally-viewed World Series since 1992! Hate watching is a real thing. The crying over this signing on social media and the idea that the Dodgers somehow ruined baseball is embarrassing.
Here’s the anger - the 2027 MLB Lockout is going to suck. It’s going to be very long and very messy, and at this point, probably cost us a season of baseball. I have ZERO faith that Rob Manfred is the guy to work through this. I’m expecting many of his owners and execs to speak Friday and into the weekend about salary cap and salary floor and how this HAS TO CHANGE. The MLB Players have the strongest union in all of sports, and they will fight the idea of a salary cap to the death. What’s really going to be annoying is a team like the Red Sox, who could spend if they wanted to, being one of the teams in favor of a harder cap.
I’m not doing a deep dive in the economics of baseball this morning. There’ll be plenty of time for that over the next year. Maybe two, if this thing really drags on. I do look forward to hate-watching the Dodgers this season. You’ll be watching too, even if you’re one of the babies complaining about it today.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are back in the NFL’s Elite Eight. The Boston Red Sox had a busy week. NFL Picks were not good, again. MutStack Notes for the week.
All ahead in Friday Four-Pack #155.
Subscribe today, and maybe there won’t be a two-year MLB lockout.
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On the Patriots and the Texans…
Am I alone on this?
On a busy week for the Boston Red Sox…
It was a good day, Wednesday, for the Red Sox. I would not call it a good week. We’ll start with the positive since, well, it will be a nice change of pace.
Ranger Suarez is a very good pitcher. I included this in my Barstool blog about the former Phillies lefty, but a Phillies Insider reached out with a scouting report.
“One of the best playoff pitchers I've ever seen…like Jon Lester in that way. Has never been able to stay healthy for a full year and velocity is trending down…Elite command and an overall great dude. Red Sox fans will love him. Also has huge nuts and is the best fielding pitcher in MLB…”
Guy has a 1.80 career playoff ERA. Seems like a great fit behind Garrett Crochet in what looks like one of the best rotations in Major League Baseball. Am I shocked the team spent that much money on a 30-year-old starter who has missed time with a back injury in the past? Yes and no. Yes, because I can’t imagine he was their plan A, B, or C this offseason; he is not really a Craig Breslow-type pitcher, given he doesn’t get a TON of strikeouts.
But also, I’m not that surprised because I think they were embarrassed by the way the Alex Bregman thing played out. And they should be. All the reports pieced together paint a picture of an arrogant Breslow, unwilling to move from an initially low offer. Once he did, the team balked at giving Bregman a full no-trade clause.
Listening to Bregman on Thursday, it was clear that he made it clear that with his family as a major consideration, the no-trade was important to him. That the Red Sox did not recognize this shows poor bedside manner, which seems to be a problem for Breslow.
I’m worried the way they bungled this with Bregman, a player who WANTED to come back to Boston, will hurt them with other free agents. Baseball people gossip, and my guess is that Breslow is getting crushed for the way this went down. I heard from one MLB source this week that other GMs…well, maybe they roll their eyes when Craig calls. I am not surprised.
If the Sox are paying at the top of the market for a free agent, maybe this stuff won’t matter. But they keep lowballing these offers (Alonso, Pete), and if a player is deciding between the Sox and Team X, this stuff could be a deciding factor that goes against Boston.
The team still needs to move an OF. And clean up the infield. But with the Suarez addition, the 2026 team is better than the 2025 Red Sox team that ended the season in New York. Even if Bres blew it with Bregman.
On your Divisional Round NFL Picks…
Wild Card Results 1-2 | Tremble ATD❌ | Steelers ML ❌
Packers. Brutal. Kenneth Gainwell. Brutal. Got a team-high (tied) 6 targets and was only able to turn that into 4 rec/ 26 yards. Killer. But typical for me this season. We battle on. Odds as of Friday morning at the great DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Side
RAMS -3.5 AT BEARS (-118). I have been betting against the Bears all season, and I will not stop now. If not for another Packers meltdown, they’d be in Aruba. Action Network says the comeback bodes well for the Rams: Since division realignment in 2002, teams after coming back from 10+ pts down in the playoffs are just 8-22 SU in their next playoff game, including 5-15 SU in any round before the Super Bowl. The Rams should be able to put up serious points against a Bears D that was 25th in DVOA against the pass and 21st overall. It looks like it will be cold and windy, I get it. But Stafford threw for 324 yards with a QB rating of 97 last year in a Philadelphia snowstorm. They’ll be ready.
The Total
BRONCOS VS. BILLS UNDER 45.5 (-108). I just can’t see this game being a shootout. Denver’s defense is legit and rested - they had the bye plus two weeks before that when they played teams that weren’t even really trying. They face a Bills offense of Josh Allen, James Cook, and … what else exactly? They’ll play slow (#2 slowest sec/snap NFL), and they’ll try to run it (#3 rush % neutral pace situations). When they do try to pass, the Bills’ receiving core is decimated by injury. I’ll lean into the idea Sean Payton has a brain and sees how bad the Bills Run D is and tries to run it when Denver has the ball. Where I look, seeing sharp money coming in on the under. 👀👀
The Prop
TEXANS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 18.5 (-105). I just don’t see how the Texans come into Gillette and score 20 points on Sunday. Nico Collins is out. Christian Kirk is coming off the game of his life, and the Pats will be aware of his presence. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are rookies in their first road playoff games. The Pats Run D has been reinforced by the returns of Milton Williams and Robert Spillane. And CJ Stroud has always had issues with pressure. You had Chargers’ offensive players admit they had no clue what the Pats were running in coverage. In three home playoff games as head coach, Mike Vrabel’s teams have allowed a total of 42 points.
The ATD
JAKE TSONGAS (+285…down from +310 Thursday). No Kittle. Seattle's defense allowed the 6th most yards and 5th most catches to TEs this year. I’ve never felt better about an ATD bet in 2026.
The ML Dog Mut Says Is Barking
BILLS (+100) AT BRONCOS. This is more of an opinion than a big bet I plan on making. I could talk myself into SF + 7 if I had to, but as far as dogs, I could only bet Buffalo this weekend and hope Josh Allen has the ball last…in a low-scoring game.
On your weekly MutStack Notes…
⚾ Deeeeeeeeep Dive into the busiest American League team in MLB this week on Episode 9 of Dirty Water - A Boston Sports Podcast. Smash that Subscribe button on YouTube and find us wherever you get your audio podcasts. I’m an Apple Podcast guy. Little Prime Music guy. My wife and son swear by Spotify.
🎙️ An Audacy sports station in Chicago went to FM this week. Their GM said, in part, “You look at the great successful sports content brands around the country. WFAN in New York City, 94 WIP in Philadelphia, and 97.1 The Ticket in Detroit. They’re all on FM frequencies,”…no mention of WEEI there. And not a surprise. Even within their own company, the WEEI brand is cooked. I’m told morale at WEEI is “low.”
🏒 The Bruins retired the #33 of Zdeno Chara on Thursday night. We’ve done some great events over the years at The Brook in New Hampshire, and Chara was one of the best. What really stuck with me was talking to him on and off the stage about youth sports. Chara was adamant that, in his opinion, kids should play as many sports as possible, as long as they can, rather than specialize in just one. His signing will go down as one of the best free-agent additions in the storied history of Boston sports.
💰 We have a new sports betting scandal, and it involved college hoops and Chinese Professional Basketball. Bill Speros explains it better than I can.
🏇🏻 For the last three years, I’ve done a Saturday newsletter covering the Kentucky Derby Trail. That will continue this year, but on the Barstool Blog. I’ve wanted to do more horse racing there, and this is a chance to try it out. Maybe it will suck, and Dave will hate it -we’ll find out together. The idea will be a racing topic, with some handicapping of the Derby Prep races each Saturday, up through the Triple Crown. Guests and video along the way. It will start this Saturday with a very interesting Grade II Lecomte Stakes.
🏈 I don’t recognize this 2026 version of college football, but it’s shocking to see a former 4-star recruit and Tennessee QB come to UConn. A good kind of shocking, but shocking.
🤒 My oldest son has been home sick for three days and has decided we wants to start playing poker. I am both proud and petrified.
🏈 People love announcer talk. I love announcer talk. So, no surprise, one of the most-read blogs I have written for Barstool was ranking this weekend's NFL announcers.
🗓️ 140 days until June 6
That’s enough stack for this week.
Good luck with all your bets this weekend. Thanks for reading. And watching.
The first edition of Derby Prepping w/ Mut tomorrow on the Barstool Blog.
Since we are in the Mutstack.com Trust Tree, I will say that I am baffled by the people who prefer Spotify to Amazon Music. "Prime members can listen ad free...through Amazon Music" lives in my head rent free.
I agree this isn't the Dodgers' fault but it doesn't mean I have to like it. I also agree the 2027 lockout is going to be messy and at this point, not living in a major league city I don't care. Hockey saved their sport in 2005 by missing an entire season.
One loophole I'd like to see closed is the "deferred money" sham. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Ohtani is only counting $2M towards the Dodgers tax this year. Most of his $700M is deferred until retirement. If you counted another $50-60M per year against the CBT it may even make them think twice.