Friday Four-Pack 11.7.25
Patriots botch the trade deadline. Red Sox Offseason Season. Podcast News. NFL Picks. MutStack Notes. Don't be 'that guy'
Editor’s Note from Editor/Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy
No note from Dave this week. I hope he did better than I did betting the Breeders’ Cup. Friday was good. Saturday was the opposite.
Dave, Big Cat, and the rest of the Barstool College Football Show team are headed to Starkville for #5 Georgia at Mississippi State.
The biggest college football game in New England is Bowl-Eligible UConn hosting Duke at The Rent. Go Huskies.
I’m sure Mike Florio is under a desk somewhere crying about it, but legal sports betting is here to stay. For a multitude of reasons, that’s a good thing.
There’s a pretty good chance that if you’re reading this, you occasionally place a sports bet. Or a horse bet. Or both. If you’re one of the characters below, clean it up. Don’t be that guy.
Don’t be that guy who sends your winning tickets in the group chat AFTER the result, if you didn’t post the bet before the game. I heard a term frequently when I first started betting on horses 20 years ago, and it was called redboarding.
Basically, bragging about winning a bet or a race AFTER it’s over, but having never talked about it before. “If you didn’t give us the winner before the race/game, do not redboard after the race/game is over.”
If you’re doing it, please be aware that the rest of the group finds this wildly annoying. We’re all going to have winners, and we’re all going to have losers. Sending everyone that winner AFTER the fact might make you feel better, but it doesn’t really help anyone else. You’re doing it for you, not for them.
Oh, and if you’re sending random friends who are not even in the group chat your winning screenshots after the game, that might be worse. It’s great that you won, but they probably don’t care.
Don’t be that guy DMing athletes because your bet missed. If I wanted to, I could DM or post at 1000 different athletes from my burner account, BlindMikeFan69, and I bet there’s a good % of those athletes who would see the post. Thanks to social media, fans have access to these athletes —access that did not exist 15 years ago.
Because you can post anonymously on most platforms, people are empowered to say things that they’d never say in person. This stinks, and it’s one of the real downsides to social media. Giants kicker Graham Gano talked about it this week.
As a parent, I have two boys, aged almost 13 and 10 years old, respectively. Those two loveable lunatics getting their hands on a social media account scares the hell out of me. My wife and I discuss it…screens….brain rot - every day. Hopefully, by the time they’re older, it will be different, but I’m not confident.
But the anonymous part is the key; it opens the door for people to feel okay with saying vile things to athletes - and not just professional ones. Page Spiranac opened up about being bullied into tears over her participation in the Internet Invitational - a wildly popular FOR CONTENT golf event with no sports betting involved.
Making a bet on a team, a game, or a player should not give you license to attack an athlete online. This will come up later in the newsletter, but take some personal responsibility.
I understand that 99.99999% of people betting on sports are NOT doing this, but if you’re part of this small and extreme group, knock it off. Seriously. You’re making the rest of us normal sports bettors look bad.
Don’t be the guy announcing to the room of people watching the game the current progress and status of your bet.
Hand up - I’m this guy. Guilty as charged.
We have my parents over once or twice a month to watch the Pats game on the big (well, bigish) TV and RedZone on the laptop (sadly, no second TV, yet).
I have had to be reminded by my wife that “we don’t have the over on Drake Maye rushing yards, YOU do.” Or, I’ll find myself going nuts over a random TD that helps my DFS Tourney Teams. They don’t care.
This rule does not apply if it’s you and the boys in the Gambling Cave, or you’re at the bar with a few buddies. But your neighbors or parents or the non-gamblers in your life probably don’t need to know the status of every bet you have. It’s important to you, but they don’t give a shit.
Admittedly, I still do this a lot, but I’m trying to get better.
Honorable mentions…guy who tells his friend “I got a better number” on a game they already bet…From a fellow gambling friend, “People who one-up complain with unrealistic expectations. IE, if I get smoked on a backdoor cover to finish the day 1-5 and bitch about it, I don’t want to hear my friend tell me how ‘he gets it’ cause he was only three legs short of his 10-leg parlay…again, from a friend, the “I should’ve bet that” or “knew it” reaction…
Feel free to complain about a loser, but after a few minutes or a few texts, turn the page.
Sports betting is not going anywhere. Thank God. But when it comes to being That Guy, we can all be better, myself included.
Meanwhile, some terrible takes out there RE: the Patriots’ trade deadline. I have four minutes of Red Sox thoughts and some podcast news to share. NFL Picks and MutStack notes on radio, racing, and more.
All ahead in this week’s Four-Pack.
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On the Patriots doing nothing at the trade deadline…
This is a really boring tweet. But the responses? Holy moly.
The replies were the perfect mix of optimism, delusion, anger, finger-wagging, and hate; hate toward me for suggesting that I was annoyed the Patriots had not tried to improve at the NFL’s trade deadline.
I wasn’t banging the table to move two first-round picks for Sauce Gardner like the Colts did, but there were players available at fair prices that could have helped the team.
The Seahawks added speedy WR Rashid Shaheed (we asked the Pats to trade for him in this space last week) for a 4th and 5th round picks in 2026. The Ravens got Edge rusher Dre’Mont Jones for a conditional 2026 fifth-round pick. The Eagles grabbed edge rusher Jaelan Phillip for a 2026 third-round pick.
Coming into the season, there was a lot of focus on the Pats' lack of depth - that issue still exists. Rather than protect themselves and get better, they just stood pat.
Arguing on the internet is stupid, so I’ll just respond to a few of the replies I got here. That way, you can also see the tone of some of the responses.
I mean…how do we know it isn’t? It’s an unfair comparison, but the 2001 Patriots were 5-4 through nine weeks of that season. Why not try to improve the team by making a few trades? You only get these chances so many times - look at the Washington Commanders this season.
This was not a normal trade deadline. This was a team playing well, albeit against a dreadful schedule, that had a chance to get better at a low cost. They’ll face an easy schedule the rest of the way, but eventually get tested by better teams in the playoffs. A move or two this week would have better prepared you for that.
Or, you could have rented players for this season and let them walk. The team is not paying Drake Maye, Will Campbell, or Christian Gonzalez yet. Now would have been a good time to take on some additional salary. You also have the money to pay these rental players next season.
I got some version of this post the most. I hate it. The Patriots landing Tom Brady was the luckiest thing that has maybe ever happened to any sports franchise, ever. Not only was he a Hall of Fame talent, but his contracts also allowed you to save money at the sport’s most important position. And he elevated so many players around him, the team and the fans took it for granted.
And in 2025, too many fans are stuck in Brady Land. This team has a unique opportunity THIS YEAR, not next year. Or 2027. They’re a quarterback injury away from being right back drafting in the Top 10.
Mike Vrabel made it clear this week that, for him, it’s about winning. Not team-building or long-term financial freedom, but winning. Adding a few players would have improved their chances of winning this year; they decided against it. In fact, they traded two depth pieces (Kyle Dugger & Keion White) and did not replace them. A little weird, no?
I guess I’m the dink, because it feels like most fans agree with Gaz.
Trust me, I hope the Patriots win the Super Bowl this year. And if they fall short, hopefully it’s not because the team passed up the opportunity to improve at the trade deadline.
On the RedSox Offseason SZN and some podcast news…
I look so happy in this thumbnail.
On your Week 10 MutStack NFL Picks…
Week 9 Results: 1-2 | ATD Drake Maye ❌ | Bengals ML ❌
On the Season: 12-15 | ATD bets 3 for 9 | ML Dog 1 for 3
Halfway home in the NFL, and picks have been a masterclass in mediocrity. Lines from DraftKings as of Friday morning.
The Side
49ERS + 4.5 VS RAMS (-110) This is just too many points in this matchup. The underdog has dominated in this series. In 14 meetings since 2019, the dog is 13-1 ATS in those games, and Kyle Shanahan is 8-0 ATS in this spot vs. the Rams per Action Network. I like the Rams and I’ll be happy to bet them later this year, but this three-game winning streak is fake. Ravens (no Lamar), the Jags, and the Saints. Meanwhile, Shanny keeps scheming up easy throws for Mac Jones and his offense. 49ers starting to get healthy, at home, catching 4.5. Bet.
The Total
BEARS VS. GIANTS UNDER 46.5 (-112) Our first ‘weather under’ of the season on MutStack. I’m seeing winds around 20 MPH all game, with gusts north of 30 MPH. I get it, these defenses stink, and I’m going against a three-point line move this week. But the Bears still play pretty slow, the Giants’ offense could easily fail, and you’re playing in cold and windy conditions. We saw the impact that can have on Thursday night in Denver.
The Prop
TREVEYON HENDERSON OVER REC YARDS *****
***** As of Friday morning, this is NOT live on DraftKings. Based on some other books, this will probably be posted between 20 and 22 yards, and I’ll be on the over. Tampa’s D is set up to throw against them. They allow the most REC YDS/GAME to opposing RBs. Henderson is getting more reps and could clear this with one catch. Will update here once the line is live.
The ATD
KYLE PITTS +270
The ML Dog Mut Says is Barking
PATS (+120) Don’t pick a lot of Pats game here because I get worried about my own personal bias. But the Bucs are banged up, and their defense is built to stop the run. Josh McDaniels will have a pass-heavy game plan ready and won’t waste time trying to run the ball into the Bucs D-Line. 🐶🐶
On your weekly MutStack Notes…
🏇🏻 I had hoped to be leading this week’s newsletter with breaking news in the horse racing world. Obviously, that didn’t happen. I guess what I can write is this: I’ve heard from multiple sources that one major racing circuit is set to make significant changes in how it handles all CAW bets. That change was initially scheduled to take place as soon as this week, but has been pushed back.
I’m also very confident in saying that the anti-CAW push Dave has made on social media has received a lot of attention and is 100% helping the cause of the retail horseplayer.
There are powerful people in the industry who recognize that change is needed, and soon, just not soon enough for me and many, many other players.
🏇🏻 As for the Breeders’ Cup betting, Friday was great. Saturday was the opposite. Live streams of each race were fun, and maybe we’ll bring that back on another big racing day.
5️⃣ My official Kirk Minihane Show Top 5: Kirk, Justin, Mike, Dave, Steve. Putting Klemmer ahead of him yesterday was silly. Justin’s roadtrips and loyalty make him my No. 2.
🏇🏻 Social Media Influencer Griffin Johnson, who was gifted ownership in horses because of his following, being named Owner of the Year, is embarrassing and a low blow to people who spend their own time and money on the sport.
🎙️ The month of October was a big one for Boston sports. The Red Sox made the playoffs for the first time since 2021. Drake Maye Fever swept the region. So it makes it even more impressive that WEEI Afternoons drew just a 2.2 rating for the month, tied for 15th among stations with Men25-54. As one Boston radio personality said so perfectly to me, “Hideous.”
98.5 The Sports Hub was #1 among Men25-54, almost quadrupling WEEI overall 15.8 to 4.0. Again, it was a HUGE month for Boston sports.
We’ll have the complete breakdown of what is shaping up to be a blowout fall book for the Hub when we get the numbers in late December.
🏈 I’ll be hosting a Q&A with Patriots Legend Vince Wilfork next Saturday at The Brook Casino in Seabrook, NH. The Brook is fantastic, and the event is free of charge. Details here.
💰 My take on the Penn/ESPN breakup is that my boss is a brilliant guy and I'm glad to be on his team. And answering Ian’s email - If you have ESPN Bet and have pending bets, they’ll convert to Score Bet (which was the underlying tech powering ESPN Bet), owned by Penn. My suggestion is to play on DraftKings. Thank you, Steve Ruddock, for the info.
⚾ I slogged through all 150 minutes of Believers: The Boston Red Sox on ESPN Premium. Do not pay the $29.99/month for ESPN Premium to watch it - it’s not good. But since I watched it, I reviewed it this week. If you did watch it or end up watching it, I’d be curious what you think. I have seen ZERO buzz about it, anywhere. After watching it, I understand why.
⌨️ Leave Bob Ryan alone. He’s a treasure.
And with that, we have surely said it all.
Good luck with all the bets this weekend. And thanks for reading.
Good weekend.
The Pats should have made a move as there were moves that they could have made, as witnessed by the trades that happened. I’m not surprised by what Vrable said, it’s not like he can come out and say, “Yeah, you’re right we should have done something.” That’s a good way to get fired.
As always a good read Mut. The EEI stuff is incredible