Friday Four-Pack 12.1.23

Pats flexed. A media question. Bad PR for ESPN BET. NFL Picks!

This one has to REALLY hurt the Krafts.

Their franchise, their pride and joy, is in such bad shape that ESPN is flexing it and the best QB on the planet out of their marquee game.

And with her tour over for now, punting away the chance to have Taylor Swift hanging out watching her boyfriend Travis Kelce at the stadium she’s done so many shows at over the years. Swift brings more viewers.

No Monday night game. No primetime. No Swifties for ESPN.

Next week, Amazon gets the Pats in primetime against the Steelers. How did they promote the game last night?

That’s right. Not with a player. With a coach that is probably gone after this season thanks to among other things massive mismanagement of the quarterback position.

Kraft values his seat at the NFL Power Table so much, that he accepted the league’s four-game suspension of Tom Brady over deflategate. A decision that reportedly infuriated the greatest QB of all time.

This Monday night flexing is a reminder of the team’s standing in the current NFL hierarchy.

Forget the actual standings - they are simply the least watchable team in the NFL.

Hard to imagine that changing with Bailey Zappe poised to take over this week against the Chargers. His career QB rating is 82.2 and the team valued him so little they cut him earlier this season. I am not excited about another round of Zappe Hour.

We’ll get to more about the Pats in the Week 13 NFL Picks.

Now an amazing 18-17-1! How do I do it?

But we’ll start with a media question in this week’s Friday Four-Pack.

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On the next breakout Boston media “star”…

When sports on local TV was a big deal, WBZ’s Bob Lobel was the biggest name in Boston.

He broke big stories. Had entertaining sports segments when it was more than just 180 seconds of highlights on the local news. He hosted what was essentially ‘all-star sports radio on TV’ every Sunday Night in Sports Final. He was a star.

And there was always this story that in the 80s, when Lobel was a star in Boston, ESPN came calling with big bucks. The idea was ESPN had tabbed Lobel to be Chris Berman before Chris Berman.

Lobel reportedly turned down the money and the chance to head to the fledgling sports network. Chris Berman became Chris Berman and the rest, as they say, is history.

Fast-forward to the end of 2023 and we ask a simple question - Who are the next breakout stars in Boston sports media? Who could take their show/audience to a larger platform based on what they’re doing now?

Because it’s happened recently. Jared Carrabis is a star. He broke in as a Red Sox blogger. Became a fixture at Barstool Sports. And was rewarded with a reported mega-deal from DraftKings. His Baseball is Dead and Name Redacted podcasts get hundreds of thousands of downloads. His social media goes viral. He’s a regular on MLB Network. In some warped way, there may be a segment of younger baseball fans that view Carrabis the way some of us viewed Peter Gammons growing up. If Peter Gammons had tattoos and loved the WWE.

Kirk Minihane is a star. He broke free from Audacy and massive ratings at Sports Radio WEEI. He took a large, passionate Kirk Minihane Show audience to Barstool Sports. And while he has claimed he’s never going to be the biggest podcast/show at Barstool, in the last few years both it and he have become much more mainstream in the Barstool World. His appearances in Barstool’s Writer Cup golf event and more recently Surviving Barstool have generated millions of views online. He is now one of the most recognizable personalities at one of the biggest sports brands in the world. Star.

And there are other examples of those who have vaulted from Boston into national prominence. NESN alum Jamie Erdahl was the lead sideline reporter for CBS College Football before moving over to host the NFL Network’s popular flagship show Good Morning Football.

Randy Scott and Gary Striewski were teammates at NESN for years. Now they’re anchoring SportsCenter A.M and appearing in ESPN Commercials. Elle Duncan made a similar NESN to ESPN move. Jamison Coyle moved from NESN Daily to the lead host job at the NHL Network.

Zach Lowe was blogging about the Celtics before Bill Simmons and Co. made him an NBA media star. And if you want to go way back, Simmons himself broke in writing a newsletter-style email to Boston sports fans before blasting off at the old ESPN2. See, newsletters are cool.

You get the idea.

So back to the original questions - Who are the next breakout stars in Boston sports media?

Front and center is Mike Felger. His radio show is one of the most listened-to in the country. It gets viewers and calls nationwide on TV simulcast. There is a ‘Mad Dog Russo’ type of energy that would translate even if Felger were talking about national topics. I think he would have the ability to bring along an audience and also cultivate a new one based on his style and personality. Goofy shit, like Felger v. Technology, would go viral on the right platform. With the right social team.

He’s done hundreds of hours on TV both offering opinions and facilitating in the host chair. He’s often sounded envious of the job Mike Greenberg has facilitating on ESPN.

You could build a show around Felger and have national success. A loose comparison might be The Dan LeBatard Show.

He fits the Lobel Mold of someone who is already a star in Boston. That being said, Felger has shown zero interest in going national. But of the potential candidates, he is the most obvious.

After that, it’s not so obvious.

We’ve written a lot about Rich Shertenlieb in the last few weeks. He’s walking away from huge success at 98.5 The Sports Hub with no official landing spot. He’s been loosely linked to WEEI and even WZLX in Boston. I think he would have an audience in Boston. I don’t know if what he did for Toucher and Rich translates nationally, at least on his own.

I admittedly did not listen when he and co-host Fred Toucher were on WBCN and it was not a sports-focused show. But they drew big ratings there, too. Or when he produced nationally for Kid Kraddick.

It’s worth noting that at least from afar, The Sports Hub appears to have valued his co-host Fred Toucher more than Rich.

My list ends there for The Sports Hub.

No one at WEEI fits the bill for this exercise. I could see NBC Sports Boston’s Phil Perry on the NFL Network.

But from there it was hard to make any more strong cases.

Alex Reimer worked with me at WEEI. He now covers sports media for Awful Announcing. I asked for his thoughts.

“Andrew Callahan. He seems like he could be working towards some sort of national “insider” role. He seems to break the most stories on the beat.” Callahan covers the Patriots for the Boston Herald.

“I’m really struggling to think of on-air people at either (radio) station. Maybe that’s the story. There is no next generation of talent. WEEI ends when Greg Hill retires. I don’t feel like 20-somethings want to get into radio or even TV.”

Alex wrote recently about sports radio’s fight for survival.

Dave Cullinane is a former producer for The Kirk Minihane Show. He’s now on TikTok as a content producer and has been active covering the Boston media for the last few years.

“Michael Felger could do it. He would not be successful at it.”

He also mentioned understanding the appeal of Pete Blackburn and DJ Bean, but is not a consumer of their new venture, “What Chaos.” It’s a new national hockey show with content company ALLCITY. Pete and DJ are based out of Boston.

Alex is right in that SPORTS MEDIA landscape is changing. Has changed. You don’t have to be affiliated with some big, national company to be a “star.” But you do have to have an audience. And that’s the point here - who can take that Boston success and audience with them? One for sure? Is that what Shertenlieb is going to try and do? Will he be successful?

Am I missing someone in Boston on TikTok or YouTube that has a huge following already? Did I leave out your favorite host? Comments are open below to keep the conversation going.

On our Week 13 NFL Picks…

Week 8: 0-3
Week 9: 3-0
Week 10: 0-3
Week 11: 3-0
Week 12: 2-0-1
Season: 18-17-1

Our first push of the season. If you got the Bills +3.5 midweek, you’re a winner.

The Side
49ERS -2.5 AT THE EAGLES. (-118, FanDuel) We’re going right back at it against the Eagles here. The 49ers are finally starting to get healthy - it looks like the talented Trent Williams will play this week. They’re coming off a mini-bye having played last Thursday. And when they’re healthy and rested they’re among the best teams in the league (DVOA #2 behind just the Ravens). Meanwhile, the Eagles played a thriller against the Bills Sunday and have the Cowboys waiting in the wings next Sunday night. Philadelphia has three DL on the injury report and just two healthy linebackers on the roster. They’re down to 21st in pass defense and will struggle to slow down the Niners offense. A chance for the 49ers to avenge last year’s ugly NFC Championship loss where Josh Johnson and CMC had to play QB. FanDuel the only listed -2.5 on the board Friday morning, but you can adjust off the number and see if you get better than -118 elsewhere.

The Total
PATRIOTS V. CHARGERS UNDER 40.5. (-110, BetMGM). Rain in the forecast. Bailey Zappe and his pop-gun arm at quarterback. A Chargers offense that can’t run the ball to save their lives (23rd DVOA). There is no amount you could pay me to leave the couch, fight the traffic and take this game in live at Gillette Stadium. Okay, fine maybe there is a number. Either way, this is going to feel like a preseason game in December. Total has moved down the last 48 hours.

The Prop
BAILEY ZAPPE UNDER 201.5 PASSING YARDS. (-114, FanDuel) I’m on record as saying Zappe stinks. This from NESN on his second half against the Giants:

“Zappe's nine completions today featured a *total* of minus-4 air yards, per NFLGSIS's live stat tracking. He didn't complete a pass to a target more than 5 yards downfield, and five of the nine were behind the LOS.”

Good news is for the folks the great Nick Kostos called earlier this week, “The Zappe Slaps,” they can wear those #4 jerseys they wasted their money on a year ago.

He probably stinks…gameplan to run the ball…rain…must-win game for the Chargers …maybe (hopefully) some Malik Cunningham mixed in….UNDER.

BONUS PROP
IF WE GET WORD MACK HOLLINS IS FINE - FALCONS WR VAN JEFFERSON UNDER 12.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110, ESPN BET). I get it, random. But Jefferson has been a zero for the Falcons. Now they get the Jets pass defense. Hollins likely in. If you really want to get frisky, ESPN BET has alt lines for his under. +180 for U4.5 yards. I’m shocked they even posted props for Jefferson. Speaking of ESPN BET…

On some terrible publicity for ESPN BET…

ESPN BET made mainstream headlines this week, for all the wrong reasons.

X.com/Twitter user CalulatorGrant hit what he thought was four of five legs of a same-game parlay (Called Parlay+ by ESPN BET). He pushed (tied) on one of the five legs, where he had the Eagles -3. They won by three, so that leg was a tie. The other four were graded winners.

If CalculatorGrant played this on Fan Duel, they would have recalculated the odds and paid him out as a winner on the four legs of the bet that hit.

Not ESPN BET.

No, their rules state that in these Parlay+ bets, if one let gets voided, the whole bet is voided. And that’s not totally uncommon. DraftKings will void both winning and losing same-game parlays where one or more legs are voided.

But the details show why ESPN BET’s rule really stinks. From Action Network:

In essence, ESPN BET is the sole sportsbook that only voids SGPs that win when one leg voids. In other words, other major sportsbooks void SGPs in these scenarios, too: but they void losing bets in addition to winning ones. At DraftKings, BetMGM or Caesars, you could go 0-for-4 with one push and you'd still get your money back. At ESPN BET, you could go 3-for-4 with one push and lose your stake.

That’s right. They’ll void out the winners. But the losers where one leg was voided are also graded as losers. Not void. A loser. No one else does that. Brutal.

Penn Gaming had a similar rule in place when it was Barstool Sportbook as their branding partner. What they should have done was make the rule more player-friendly when they rebranded. All eyes were going to be on ESPN BET - the post above has over 3.5 million views.

This is NOT good publicity.

But it’s a good reminder for us, the sports bettor -

1. The goal of these sportsbooks is to take our money.

2. The rules are different everywhere. Most of them favor the sportsbook. Not us.

In this case, the moral of the story for me is never to play a Parlay+ on ESPN BET. At least until they change this rule. And they should.

If you are playing these types of bets, FanDuel seems like the most player-friendly platform.

On a handful of Four-Pack leftovers…

• Beasley Media - the parent company of 98.5 The Sports Hub - still has an active job listing for the morning show opening created by Rich Shertenlieb’s departure. So maybe they’re still looking. But the way it’s being handled on the air - joking about Mike Felger coming in, inviting Mike Gorman to sit in for a show - sure does feel like they have someone in mine already. Rob “Hardy” Poole continues to be the betting favorite to move from middays to mornings. To their credit, the show is having fun with the open seat. For the record, I agree with the fan who suggested Jon Meterparel get a shot.

• If you’re a Massachusetts bettor who took advantage of the mispriced lines from DraftKings on the NBA’s Opening Night, you’re not thrilled this morning. On Thursday, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission voted 3-2 to a compromise that allows DK to void the bets but pay out those who bet on the market three-times their original bet stake. So rather than pay out $575,336, they’ll give back just $12,547.08. That’s the definition of running hot for DK. And a bad break for those bettors.

• The Amazon Barry Sanders Doc is good, not great. Still don’t feel like we got a great reason why he retired. It also glosses over a report that said he would have come back if the Lions traded him to Baltimore in 1999. But the highlights are great.

• It’s silly NESN does not air a half-hour Red Sox Hot Stove show every weeknight during December. Just talk about the rumors and reports. Host and a guest. You own the team. You own the station. Superserve your baseball audience. Put the clips on social. Easy.

We’ve said a lot. Good luck with all your bets this weekend. Comments are open below.

Substack has added some new video features. We’ll have to test those out soon. Thanks for reading.

Good Weekend.