Friday Four-Pack 1.2.26
A brutal fall book for Sports Radio WEEI. A Red Sox conspiracy theory. I want no part of Josh Allen in the playoffs. NFL Picks, MutStack Notes and more.
Note from Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy:
There is no owners note for MutStack today. I find it astounding that I was asked to provide one in light of the fact I’ve generously agreed to do a livestream at noon discussing Go Go Greys Stables, which I’m sure will be listened to by a grand total of 4 people. That is my owners note.
Note from Founder of MutStack.com, Mut:
As he is the owner, I will always ask Dave for a note—every week. Even weeks he’s offered his time to horse racing fans like he has today. We (the way more than 4 people) appreciate it. Details on Friday’s livestream below, and good luck to Go Go Greys Miss Watermelon in the opener at Santa Anita on Friday.
This should have been a week of celebrating Drake Maye as the NFL’s likely MVP and going through all the scenarios of who the Patriots might face as the No. 2 seed in what feels like a wide-open AFC Tournament.
It was not.
Instead, the focus was on separate assault charges that teammates Steph Diggs and Christian Barmore are facing.
The details of both are pretty brutal, but court dates are not scheduled until January. It sounds like the team and the NFL will let it play out until then. Both are innocent until proven guilty, but it’s still a distraction, especially in the case of Diggs, who has been lauded as a team leader all season. This week, even after the allegations surfaced, Maye continued to support Diggs. “Stef, man, he means a lot to this team… He gives off the persona of one of those guys that you just want to be teammates with. I think that's one of the best things about him that I've kind of learned, is how awesome it is to be his teammate and be there with him.” Diggs and his impact have been one of the best storylines of the season.
Bill Belichick was the best coach ever at handling big distractions. Mike Vrabel will have to channel some of that this week and into what feels like a long playoff run for the Patriots.
As for playoff possibilities, of course, go Trey Lance and go Chargers. The #1 seed is the preferred path, and a win against Miami and a Broncos loss to LAC gets you that.
A win against Miami, a Broncos win, and a Bills win vs. the Jets seemed likely, meaning you’d get the Chargers at home and the No. 2 seed. Awesome, sign me up. BUT, now Josh Allen looks unlikely to play. A win against Miami, a Broncos win, and a Bills loss = Bills at Pats next week. The Jets can beat a Mitch Trubisky-led Bills team.
No thanks. Josh Allen is the best player in the NFL, and as we saw a few weeks ago, he is capable of putting the Bills on his back. I have no interest in going through the Bills as some sort of playoff test. Nope, bring me the Chargers, please.
As for Maye and the MVP, I’d 100% vote for him over Matt Stafford. Stafford had much better weapons, and against common opponents, Maye was better. I don’t trust the voters to get it right, but I don’t want to see Maye out there stat-padding in the second half against Miami if the Broncos are up big on LAC (they play at the same time). But as long as that game is competitive, Vrabel should be trying to close out Miami and secure the #1 seed.
The AFC is there for the taking, and I see no reason the Patriots can’t win the whole thing - I’d just prefer not to have to go through Buffalo and Allen to do it.
Meanwhile, it was another blowout loss for WEEI in the ratings. I have a Red Sox conspiracy theory. The NFL Picks FINALLY had a winning week. Plus, MutStack notes.
All ahead in Friday Four-Pack #153.
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On the Boston Sports Radio Fall Book Ratings…
In sports radio, when the local teams are doing well, sports stations benefit. The saying is, I believe, “A rising tide lifts all boats.”
Last spring, the Celtics had a deep playoff run, and both Spots Radio WEEI and 98.5 The Sports Hub saw ratings bumps. Historically, it’s been the same for any of the four teams in town - they do well, and so does sports radio.
And that is why I’d argue that this Fall 2025 book is as bad as it gets for WEEI.
You had the Red Sox face the Yankees at the front of the book. Then you have the Patriots go on this insane run, led by the NFL’s likely MVP and one of the league’s most popular new players in Drake Maye. Yes, The Hub has the Pats games on the radio. But WEEI has the Red Sox games and weekly interviews with Mike Vrabel and Maye. It should have led to a strong book for both stations.
It didn’t.
98.5 The Sports Hub was #1 among Men25-54, almost 5x WEEIs 3.5, which tied for 9th place among that same sports radio power demo. In fact, WEEI is down 44% from last year at this time, based on the station’s overall rating. We’ll revisit that overall rating in a second.
“This is the worst book EVER for WEEI. Disasterous,” one radio veteran texted me Tuesday afternoon. I agree, even though I’ve made the same claim about a few of their recent books. It’s the local buzz around the Patriots that makes this one so much worse. Remember, heading into the summer, the Hub’s numbers were slipping, and WEEI actually won a 12+ monthly.
It didn’t matter. When the games meant the most and people wanted to hear Pats talk, they overwhelmingly chose The Sports Hub. It’s a superior product, at least according to the audience. It’s been three years of this now, and little has changed.
I get the sense that the 98.5 Team is delighted with this blowout win. It seems some WEEI salespeople have been pretty aggressive in trying to poach clients from the Hub and may have told stories about the Hub’s ratings decline.
Whoops.
Some other assorted thoughts and opinions on the fall book.
🎙️ According to a source, the 3.5 overall fall number is the lowest fall number WEEI has ever had, all the way back to their time on AM 590. I don’t have access to every book, but I could not find a lower fall number myself. They went from 3.4 to 3.5 from Summer to Fall, WITH all the Pats buzz. The Hub went from 11.1 to 15.
🎙️ WEEI Market Manager Mike Thomas sent his on-air staff a memo a few weeks back, basically telling them, “Yes, the ratings are bad, but we’re making improvements in Adults 25-54.” That’s not Men 25-54, but okay, I’ll play this game, Mike.
Fall Book 2025 Persons 25-54
98.5 The Sports Hub Weekdays
Morning Drive: 12.2, #1
Mid-Days: 11.1, #1
Afternoons: 11.1, #1
WEEI Weekdays
Morning Drive: 4.4, #8
Mid-Days: 2.5, #14
Afternoons: 1.6 (!!!), #17
That’s improvement? Yikes. Thomas can point to success for his Audacy music stations in Boston, but his work in rebuilding WEEI has been a disaster. I was reminded recently that WEEI’s highest-rated and flagship show, The Greg Hill Morning Show, was a Mark Hannon move, not Thomas.
🎙️ Speaking of Greg’s show, a significant drop from last fall. Ironically, one of the reasons for that is his longtime WAAF co-host Danielle Murr and the success her show is having on WZLX. “The Chuck Nowlin Morning Show” was #2 in the Fall Men 25-54, with a 6.9 rating, almost doubling Greg’s number. You can see that Greg’s drop-off affected Jones and Keefe, who also saw a significant drop from Fall 2024. I’m told Thomas still has hope for Jones and Keefe.
🎙️ How can anyone have hope for PM Drive? We all agree, WEEI Afternoons is one of the worst shows to ever air on the radio in Boston; I can only write that so many times. But Mike Thomas loves Andy Hart and Ted Johnson. If there is a change there, I think Ted stays. Nick ‘Fitzy’ Stevens is the clear odd man out, to the point where I was told this week that when Johnson took the job with WEEI, he thought it was just he and Hart doing the show.
🎙️They were down slightly from last Fall, but this is a monster book for 98.5 The Sports Hub. They beat their main sports rivals by 14.2, 12.7, and 14.7 points across AM, MID, and PM Drive. That’s an anhiliation.
🎙️The only two shows 'up,' from last Fall were Zolak and Bertrand and Christian Arcand (nights WEEI), and just a few Sox playoff games helped him immensely.
🎙️ So, what’s the next move for Thomas and WEEI? I believe once again, they’ll look to 98.5 The Sports Hub for new on-air personnel. I think Matt McCarthy and Cerrone Battle - who have both at least had conversations over the last year with WEEI, according to my sources - will again be in the mix.
Can WEEI find the money to pay them a reasonable salary? I don’t know. I do know that money has halted conversations with other 98.5 The Sports Hub hosts who had been pursued - WEEI could not afford them at their current rates. Does Audacy suddenly find some cash?
Where might McCarthy or Battle fit if they indeed come over? Again, I don’t know. Trust me, I’m working on it. I just don’t have solid details yet.
🎙️I think you’ll also see WEEI push to land the Bruins radio rights. Thomas recently added a hockey show to his Saturday morning lineup, trying to copy what 98.5 The Sports Hub has. Would Bruins radio rights really matter? It would help them more financially than it would in the ratings.
🎙️ I’ve heard nothing about the station changing formats, but these are the types of numbers that get those conversations started. Audacy sold the land where it currently broadcasts in Brighton a few years ago and is supposed to move to new studios in 2026—something to keep an eye on.
If there was any doubt, this Fall Book confirms once and for all the death of whatever the Sports Radio WEEI ‘brand’ was in the past. It seems unlikely that a few new hires from their rival or the radio rights to the Bruins will help restore its former glory.
If you’re a Boston sports radio listener, I would love your comments below on a big win for The Hub.
On a Red Sox front-office conspiracy theory …
I know the Red Sox have made a few trades that will make the team better, but hear me out: Is Craig Breslow trying to publicly pressure Red Sox ownership into spending more money?
First, this is obviously an annoying post from Passan. When the next MLB franchise value numbers come out, the Red Sox will be worth OVER $5 billion. But let’s use the most recent valuation of $4.8 billion.
They’re just not reinvesting their revenue back into the team as they should. We shit on teams like the Pirates and the Royals for not spending, but given their valuation and revenue, I’d argue that what Sox ownership is doing is actually worse.
There has been no indication that the impending sale of the Pittsburgh Penguins is a move to allow John Henry to spend more money on his baseball team. The zero free agents they’ve signed make it very clear they have every intention of staying under the $264 million luxury tax threshold.
And it sucks.
The guy I have focused most of my anger on for all of this is Craig Breslow. He was the one talking about all the moves the team planned to make in the offseason on podcasts and in different media appearances. I’ve been actively trying to hold him to his word because he’s been so forward about what the Sox would do.
Was all of that just part of a team effort to get Henry to loosen up the purse strings?
The Passan note from Threads (I’ll be honest, did not realize Threads was still a thing) is at least the second time he’s commented on ownership’s unwillingness to spend. In November, he wrote for ESPN, “As long as Red Sox ownership keeps the financial clamps on chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, he’ll need to get creative in improving a Red Sox team that’s already quite good.”
You have Breslow making all these promises of significant team improvement. You have Passan calling out the ownership multiple times. So yeah, my new theory is that Breslow has let Passan know what he’s up against. And the result is this tag team effort from Bres and Passan to embarrass Henry into spending.
It’s either that or Breslow is just okay over-promising and under-delivering, just like he did at the trade deadline.
I’m not a Breslow guy. And I think the latter is just as likely. But these Passan comments feel more than random, and maybe, just maybe, it’s part of a coordinated attack on Sox ownership by the journalist and the team’s President of Baseball Operations.
On your Week 18 NFL Picks…
Week 17 Results: 2-1| McBride ATD ✅ | Mayer ATD ❌ | Texans ML ✅
On the Season: 20-31 | ATD bets 4-14 | ML Dog 6-4
Well, shoot. A winning week, just in time for an epic playoff run. Odds from DraftKings as of Friday morning.
The Side
FALCONS (-3.5) VS. SAINTS (-108). It’s Week 18, and it’s stupid to love any NFL side, I get it. But I love the Falcons here. The Saints will be without Chris Olave, leaving TE Juwan Johnson as their best skill-position player. Meanwhile, the Falcons have no 1st round pick to tank for and are trying to get Bijan Robinson the franchise record for scrimmage yards (needs 151 total yards Sunday). All signs point to a streaking Atlanta team trying to go all out to tie for 1st in the NFC South (tie-breakers will keep them out of the playoffs) against a Saints team with limited offensive weapons and a rookie QB that’s due for a clunker.
The Total
49ERS VS. SEAHAWKS UNDER 47.5 (-105). Since Week 12, SF has operated at the 6th-slowest SNAP/SEC pace in the NFL, per FTN. Seattle is not that far back at #10, and it makes sense - both coaches lack trust in their QBs. As long as this game stays close, the under is the play. If one team gets up big? Yeah, not great. But even if Seattle gets up early, they still hold the #1 DVOA D. There is also a chance of rain on that all-grass field at Levi Stadium, which would slow things down. And I’m always looking to bet UNDER on high totals in the second meeting of divisional opponents.
The Prop
Will update with a prop play here Sunday after we get more news on inactives
CHRIS OLADOKUN 150+ PASSING YARDS (+100). If the Chiefs try to give Kelce the big send-off, they’ll have to be throwing. Oladokun is apparently friends with Mahomes and Kelce and has faced much tougher defenses. He gets a tanking Vegas team today.
The ATD
JONNU SMITH +450. Smith led the Steelers in targets last week and got two carries. The Steelers lost TE Darnell Washington, so Smith should see more time on the field Sunday night vs. Baltimore. No DK Metcalf again for Aaron Rodgers.
The ML Dog Mut Says Is Barking
CARDINALS +285 AT RAMS. We’re gambling here, but if the 49ers win on Saturday night, the Rams are locked into the #6 seed in the NFC. Even if the 49ers lose, there’s a chance the Rams decide to rest their guys after a series or two. Where I look, there have been some BIG bets on the Cards ML, and at almost 3-1, I’m in.
Update: This is now +625, meaning the market thinks Rams are going all-out - this line is now -13.5 on DK Sunday AM. It could also be tied to the 49ers losing and the Rams with a chance to get the #5 seed. McVay has benched guys before, I’m still betting, but I like it less. Steelers +170 tonight, my next favorite. Commanders +190 vs full-rest Eagles #3
On your weekly MutStack Notes…
🏇🏻 A few weeks ago, Dave mentioned on one of his live streams that he should do a full review of his current Go Go Greys Stables horses heading into 2026. I texted him and said I’d love to host it for him if he ended up doing it.
A few days later, he started sending me some info on the horses, and on Friday at noon, I’ll be hosting a live stream on X.com, going through the Go Go Greys roster with its owner.
Putting aside the massive anxiety of something going wrong with the stream, I’m looking forward to the stable walkthrough. I think Dave and Go Go Greys will bring new fans to racing in 2026. And since it’s all public record, I’ll point out that he’s not been shy about spending on his talented group of horses in Go Go Greys.
Update: Dave was great on the Go Go Greys Stable Tour. Ended up going almost an hour. You can watch by clicking the post right below ⬇️⬇️
🏀 It will be hard to have a worse take in 2026 than my 2025 take that the Celtics should tank. It wasn't good. I fell on my sword this week on the Barstool Blog.
🎇Recapping Coleman’s Tweets from New Year’s Eve on KMS would have been glorious. Nice work from Gus on the Best Of Shows.
🏈 I did not go to Fenway for UConn/Army, and I’m glad I didn’t. I will remember this season much more for the Duke win and a full Rent in East Hartford than I will for whatever that was last Saturday. I almost wish they didn’t play in the game.
🏈 Enough with college players posting on social media how much they love their team…in the same post where they’re announcing that they’re leaving in the transfer portal.
📲 My oldest son now has a cell phone. My youngest son has a cell phone light. I am not dealing with it well. However, my younger guy calling me every few minutes to tell me what’s going on is pretty hilarious.
🏈 If it is Maye vs. Allen next week, is there a chance that’s the Monday Night Wild Card game?
🏇🏻 After winning the Derby and the Travers, I thought for sure Sovereignty would be retired. His planned return to racing in 2026 was a welcome surprise, and hopefully, his connections will target the Whitney at Saratoga this summer
👹 The Mutnansky boys would like you to know that we graded out the Stranger Things finale as a solid ‘A.’
Yep. I think that’s enough Stack for this week.
A happy and healthy 2026 to you and yours. Good luck with all your bets this weekend. And thanks for reading.
I'm curious. If you were Mike Thomas, what would you do to fix the situation that WEEI is in? obviously a lineup change is coming (I would expect the Tuesday after MLK Day) but are you just shuffling? Are you stealing McCarthy from 98.5? are you grabbing guys from out of market?
If Mike Thomas is higher on keeping Ted Johnson vs Fitzy he should be fired.