Friday Four-Pack 1.30.26
Lessons from Belichick's Hall of Fame snub. A wild Patriots stat. Tatum's return in question? WEEI Super Bowl plans. Early Big Game Bets!
Note from Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy:
No note from Dave. Though he confirmed this morning in this clip that I am NOT on the list for the Barstool Super Bowl suite.
I am choosing to ignore that and focusing on the “I love Mut” part, instead. Glass half full in 2026, folks.
“If you’re going to ask fans to take awards and accolades like this seriously, the people who vote on it should probably take it seriously, too.”
I tried to tell you last week!
Now, dumb votes for the MLB Hall of Fame are wayyyyyy different than what happened to Bill Belichick, but the point remains - these people are morons.
Bill Belichick is not a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Days later, it still doesn’t make much sense.
The fallout was one of the few things I’ve ever seen unite everyone on social media in one direction. Patrick Mahomes, JJ Watt, Ron DeSantis … ALL the big stars rushing to their phones to announce their shock that at least 11 people did not vote for the greatest football coach of the modern era to be inducted into Canton. So far, only two voters have come forward to acknowledge their “No” votes.
Vahe Gregorian (KC) blamed the system, voting for three senior players who might not have another chance to get it.
Mike Chappell (Indy) says that Bill’s cheating was an issue for him, and instead voted for Robert Kraft and two senior players.
There are many more ‘No’ votes out there. Three predictions and one question on what happened, which was a sports media gift for the Super Bowl Bye Week.
I predict that the Hall of Fame will alter their voting process for 2027 and beyond. Asking voters to sift through senior players, coaches, and contributors in the same group makes no sense; and it’s clearly one of the main reasons we’re here.
I predict that, even though we all want it, the Hall of Fame will never make its votes public. They love their little Football Secret Society too much. These writers are the same guys who would rip a player to shreds if he didn’t answer questions after a game, but they don’t want to answer questions about their vote. 🤡🤡🤡
I predict Bob Kraft will get into the Hall of Fame this year. Between the incredible success with the Patriots and his impact on ending the 2011 NFL Lockout, he should already be in. Kraft getting in before Bill? Oh, that has to burn Bill’s ass.
We know from Seth Wickersham’s reporting that the Patriots’ cheating scandals were a factor in the current Kraft delay. And now it’s being used against Belichick. So, will these voters pull the same shit when Tom Brady is eligible in 2028?
My friend Kirk Minihane brought this up the other day (nice to have KMS back in old school, podcast-only form this week). If they’re consistent, they will, right? Especially if they’re taking Deflategate into account.
Can you imagine? The process is that someone in the voting block presents each player to the group of voters. So, after Mike Reiss presents Brady, someone has the balls to bring up the possibility of TB12 deflating footballs as a reason not to vote for him? Legit laugh out loud funny. We need a live feed of that.
It’s all so dumb. These guys are such hypocrites. They want you to respect the Hall and the process and all that bullshit, yet play moral judge and jury with their votes. They would never give Brady the Kraft/Belichick treatment. And after this week? Shoot, they might induct Brady a year or two early as a make-good.
Bill has had a rough couple of years, between not getting an NFL job, his very public relationship, and a down year at UNC—this was GREAT for his Q-Rating.
He’ll have to needlessly wait a year, but you can’t tell the story of football without Bill Belichick. And that story now has an interesting Hall of Fame footnote, thanks to spinless voters
Meanwhile, I can’t get over this Patriots stat. Jayson Tatum might not return this season. Some early Super Bowl betting notes and an interesting radio plan for WEEI and the Super Bowl.
All ahead in Friday Four-Pack #157.
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On an unthinkable Patriots stat heading into Super Bowl 60…
Shoutout Tecmo Super Bowl.
On Jayson Tatum’s return to the court…
Five days ago, I placed a bet (Bonus bet, shoutout DraftKings) on the Celtics to win the NBA Championship at 17-1. I’d be happy to lose that bet if it means a healthy Jayson Tatum for next season and beyond.
I placed it, in part, because he looked like a lock to return this season. Great workouts, only positive reports. There is no team in the East that scares me. After thinking the team might tank sans Tatum, they’ve been very good. His return would make them the team to beat in the conference if they weren’t already.
Tatum told ESPN this week that he’s not 100% committed to coming back this season, because “he wants to get it right the first time, so it's just a lot to think about." Good for him.
It’s an obvious point to say that if he’s not 100% healthy, he should not come back. Duh. Joe Mazzulla went on The Sports Hub on Thursday and said physically, Tatum has had “no setbacks.”
If there is any doubt, I’m hopeful the team has his best interests in mind and will ensure he doesn’t rush it. I hope the new owner is on board with this - I was worried he might feel like the team has to be great this year.
We’ll see how this week’s trade deadline plays out, but the Celtics could still be the team to beat in the East if Giannis ends up out west. Tatum’s long-term health > this year’s playoff success. It sounds like the uber-competitive Tatum realizes that. Here’s hoping the rest of the franchise does, too.
On some early Super Bowl 60 betting thoughts…
I don’t have one of these. Not even a taste.
I have a fun Drake Maye MVP ticket, but that’s it. I put too much respect on Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson. Bad job by me
Reports have Dave’s ticket as the biggest future on the Patriots via DraftKings.
Nine days out from Super Bowl 60, I reached out to Director of Sports Operations for DraftKings Johnny Avello to see what kind of early action they were seeing on Pats/Seahawks.
“Right now, Seattle is taking most of the money to cover, while New England is getting more attention on the moneyline. This is typical for a big game – bettors take the favorite to cover, and the underdog to win,” he told me.
As for props, he says, “We have so many different props up for this game, but Jaxson Smith-Njigba is getting the most attention early on. Currently, he is our most bet player in various categories including First Touchdown, Anytime Touchdown, Most Receptions and Most Receiving Yards among other categories. He is also the second most bet player to win Super Bowl MVP, right behind his quarterback.”
I should ask Johnny for help betting on these games at this point.
Wild Card Results 1-2 | Divisional Results 1-2 | Champ Results 0-4 (2-8 Playoffs)
Fun! And by fun, I mean disaster!
Full game breakdown here next week. This week, some early historical Super Bowl 60 betting notes that might interest you.
Over the last 22 Super Bowls, underdogs are 15-7 ATS. In the last 17 Super Bowls with a dog of 3+ points, they’re a solid 13-4 ATS.
Per Action Network, the Seahawks are currently 4.5-point favorites vs. the Patriots in Super Bowl 60. Dating back to Super Bowl 30 -- 30 years ago -- We’ve had sixteen close with a spread of 4.5 or more - The underdog is 12-2-2 ATS in those games, covering 7 in a row 👀
Some bets I’ve already made. Fade at your own risk - I’m way overdue. These were available (with current odds) on DraftKings as of Friday morning.
Patriots +4.5 (-105) and Patriots ML (+195)
I’ll save the deeper dive on the game for next Friday, but the outline version is that Sam Darnold was trending down, really from about Week 12 on, before that explosion on Sunday against the Rams. The Patriots' D is not getting enough credit for how much better they’ve been, as morons focus on the snow in Denver. I’ll take Vrabel and the points in a setting that has historically favored the dog (see above).
Milton Williams MVP (see updated odds)
Williams has been a beast for the Patriots since returning from injury. He stood out Sunday in Denver as a true game wrecker, just like he was a year ago in the Super Bowl, when he had two sacks and two hurries in just 23 pass-rushing snaps. In a low-scoring game where neither QB balls out, Williams is worth a few bucks at big odds. Coffee money bet.
Christian Gonzalez MVP (see updated odds)
Two picks might get it done, again in a lower-scoring game. Coffee money.
Drake Maye ATD (+295)
Has come down a bit (+380 at the start of the week) over the last few days, and I get it. Evident in these playoffs, he’s been running more and expect that to continue in the Super Bowl. Designed run for a TD against the Broncos. His legs are a real weapon.
Number of different players to attempt a pass OVER 2.5 (+185)
Has hit in three of the last four Super Bowls. Josh McDaniels loves a good trick play.
Some great promos and boosts on DraftKings already, and a Live Millions Promo during the game next Sunday.
On your weekly MutStack notes…
🎙️ Super Bowl week involving the Patriots means the two sports stations in Boston are sending their shows to Radio Row or whatever they’re calling it now. 98.5 The Sports Hub is sending Zolak & Bertrand and Felger & Mazz.
WEEI is taking a different approach. Rather than send one show, they’re sending Greg Hill, Wiggy, and Ted Johnson to host in afternoon drive. There are sponsor dollars attached to sending those three, as I understand it. I thought that would move Andy Hart and Fitzy to the AM drive with Courtney Cox, but WEEI is taking a different approach.
Ken Laird and Chris Curtis will host in AM drive with Cox, while Andy and Fitzy will be part of middays with Jones and Keefe, and nights with Christian Arcand.
Tough look for Hart and Fitzy, essentially getting benched Super Bowl week. As of Thursday night, one source told me it was unclear if the hosts would even be on every day next week.
I actually don’t think these are bad moves; Ken and Curtis is a good show. It’s just the message you're sending to Andy and Nick…not great. So you bench them this week, then come back next week and tell them to recap the Super Bowl on Monday afternoon? Wild.
I can tell you, 98.5 The Sports Hub is having fun with this, complete with Scott Zolak poking fun at WEEI’s arrangement at the end of his show on Thursday. The off-the-air shots have been much more vicious.
🎙️ One more WEEI note: heard from a few people that there was a rumor circulating in Foxboro on Thursday that at least one person from the station was going to San Francisco and would be paying their own way. Fun!
🎙️ Gene Steratore was TERRIBLE on that Stidham backwards pass. Why have a ref in the booth if he’s going to be that bad?
📱 The screen-time battle rages on at the Mutnansky household, with my oldest son secretly discovering his phone’s screen-time password and bypassing his app limits every day for a week before we noticed. Annoyed, but also impressed.
🏇🏻 Kentucky Derby Prepping w/ Mut is back tomorrow on the Barstool Blog. The cold weather leaves us with just the Holy Bull this weekend, but plenty to talk about, including the Derby favorite Ted Noffey being out until the summer.
⚾ A fan is suing the Red Sox over their ticket fees. This should be fun.
🙏🏻 There are many one-of-a-kind characters in the world that The Kirk Minihane Show created. But as producer Dave Cullinane posted Wednesday night, Rhymo was truly 1 of 1. He passed suddenly this week, and I want to send condolences to his son Michael and his family. Rhymo had a genuine love for KMS and KMS Basketball, to the point that at one practice, he actually ran with us. He was critical of my many, many turnovers, but it came from a place of love and support. I know I speak for so many other Minifans when I say I will miss him.
That’s enough Stack for this week.
Good luck with all your bets this weekend. Thanks for reading.
Great four-pack of sports insights! Really enjoyed the Belichick analysis and Patriots commentary.
RIP Rhymo….a one of a kind character and a truly KMS classic. Man I miss KMS