Friday Four-Pack 1.31.25

Tough week for a Boston sports radio show. Kudos to Troy Aikman. Brady v. Mahomes. Media/betting notes and early Super Bowl Picks!

“Here you are promoting gambling, people are gambling more than they ever have before and those types of calls – there’s a lot at stake regardless – but especially when you’re considering there’s a lot of money that’s changing hands with these calls as well, I think that we owe it to the fans that we get it right and I think we’re at a point in time where we can. We can get it more right. So that was really my position in just trying to lean on the NFL and say, ‘Hey, we gotta fix this. We gotta address it in the offseason.’” - Former Cowboys quarterback Troy Aikman.

Troy Aikman for President. Well, not of the United States. In fact, I’m not even sure what I’d like him to be president of. But credit where credit is due - the man gets it.

According to a Time Magazine article this week, Americans bet an estimated $150 billion on sports in 2024, up 24% from the prior year, according to the American Gaming Association. The article’s focus is Richard Daynard, the man who went after Big Tobacco. Now he’s coming after the sports betting industry and there will probably be legislative reform in the next few years. Advertising and VIP Programs are the most likely targets. Hopefully, someone will take a look at the scam artists running these Discord groups that post 1000 parlay bets, then tout the single one that randomly wins on social media, and in the process sucker kids and novice bettors into signing up for their crappy service. They are scum. But we’ll get to that in a different Four-Pack.

For today, let’s focus on the facts - Americans bet an estimated $150 billion on sports in 2024, up 24% from the prior year. This is a huge deal for professional sports.

Ratings continue to drop across every sport that’s not the NFL. In the best cases, leagues can claim viewership is stagnant year-to-year. In the worst cases - like the NBA - there’s panic in the streets.

Once the league of Michael, Magic, and Larry - the league where you could not dare miss a big game in the 1990s - they’re in real trouble. TV ratings were down 28% from last year over the season’s first month. Over the last 12 years, NBA TV ratings are down a staggering 48%. It’s gotten so bad that NBA Commissioner Adam Silver is on TV talking about shortening games from 48 to 40 minutes. Or awarding just two free throws if you’re fouled shooting a three. They’re desperate as they see their market share slip away.

The NFL has been immune to the big ratings dips we see across other sports, thanks in part to betting on the games. The NFL’s primetime “island games” on Mondays, Thursdays, etc. - have become some of the most bet games in all of sports. And when you bet on a game, you’re likely to be more invested in the outcome and as a result, more likely to tune in. Bets = ratings.

UNLESS…you feel like the games are not on the up-and-up. It’s one thing for the Cleveland Browns to get screwed by a bad call on Thursday Night football. It’s another for it to happen when you had them as part of a big three-team teaser heading into the weekend.

Betting on the NFL (and all sports) changes the calculus - fans are not just watching for entertainment - they’re ‘investing’ in the outcome. Not just an investment in time, but now also in money - legally bet money. Again, in bold, Americans bet an estimated $150 billion on sports in 2024, up 24% from the prior year.

Good for ESPN’s lead analyst for saying the quiet part out loud - sports betting helps to fuel viewership and interest. Now legal in 38 states, there is still this stigma about betting on sports - at least in traditional media like broadcast television. There should be more pregame segments on how the game is being bet. Like, how is Nick Kostos not yelling about his favorite side, total, or prop on a network pregame show?

Stop doing that TERRIBLE segment when you have the talent pick the game without a point spread and everyone takes the 10-point favorite. Your audience is betting on the games - treat them like adults.

You’ll hear cries from Mike Florio and others that the league has to get calls right for the good of the sport. In reality, they have to get it right so fans keep betting on their games. If they’re betting, they’re watching…and they need you to keep watching to grow their revenues. They might not want to admit it, but the NFL knows this - and sports betting will fuel changes in NFL officiating, reviews, rules, etc.

Even if Troy Aikman is the only one who wants to say it out loud.

Meanwhile, another rough week for a Boston sports radio station. Early Super Bowl bets and props for the people. And your guide to survive what will be a popular Super Bowl Week debate.

All ahead in this week’s Four-Pack.

---

Watch, bet, and win on the Big Game at Mohegan Sun!

Make ANY $25 bet on The Big Game at the Mohegan Sun FanDuel Sportsbook between now and 6 PM on Sunday, February 9, and qualify to win one of five autographed helmets from some of the biggest stars in the NFL! Travis Kelce, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Josh Allen and more!

---

On a full week of WEEI Afternoons 2.0…

Indeed, it’s just sport’s talk. Well said, Ted.

Full disclosure - I did not plan on writing about WEEI’s latest afternoon show again this week. But a couple of things happened…and so here we are again.

I reported a few weeks ago that Ted Johnson’s schedule as the new host on WEEI Afternoons would be flexible. He does not appear on Mondays and comes in an hour after the show starts Tuesday through Friday. This is wild for major market radio and likely tied to budget constraints.

And it was all confirmed when Ted was not there this past Monday. I was curious how Andy Hart and Nick ‘Fitzy’ Stevens would handle it: Ted’s name is on the show and he’s just not there the day after Championship Sunday in the NFL.

What I heard - and what I’m assuming many other listeners heard to open the show - was one of the longest, rambling opens you’ll ever hear on radio 👀.

“The worst thing I’ve ever heard,” was the review I got from a radio host in a major market.

Just one long, three-minute run-on about…nothing? Everything? It sounded like someone who does not have a lot of experience hosting a show - which is true. Andy Hart got thrown into this role and does not deserve much of the blame. No, the blame falls on his bosses - Mike Thomas and Ken Laird - who have put Andy in a brutal position.

It does not help that his lone full-time co-host, Fitzy, has been on remotely via Zoom for four of the first eight shows. But again, management knew where he lives when they promoted him to afternoon drive and are allowing him to do shows remotely - this falls on them. But it’s hard to do good, daily shows like that.

It sucks when a commenter makes a better point than your humble newsletter author, but ‘Dan’ nailed it last week here in the comments.

…They don’t have the luxury of not being judged right away and what they rolled out on their first day was awkward and forced. The entire show felt like a Radio Row at the Super Bowl show and I was expecting Ted Johnson to start hyping some protein drink. It didn’t help that the entire first episode was just them interviewing Ted Johnson—and it isn’t that entertaining.

What a great line. There’s a major Radio Row Interview vibe to the show - it frequently turns into Andy and Fitzy asking Ted about old Patriots teams. ‘Remember when..’. radio is bad.

And I should know - I did it with Lou Merloni on Mut and Merloni. I sounded like Chris Farley in those old Chris Farley Show skits on SNL. “Hey Lou, remember when Pedro threw Don Zimmer to the ground…that was awesome.” The same thing is happening here.

And then there’s Ted. He made national headlines this week when he gave Bill Belichick a mere 10% of the credit for the Patriots Dynasty. Even my friend Glenn Ordway went after him (above). Good for Ted - some buzz for the new show!

Then the NEXT DAY…he went back on the air and bumped that percentage up to 15%. Rather than stand his ground and battle with the audience and his co-hosts, he caved. Former Pats TE Jermaine Wiggins says some silly things on The Greg Hill Show, but he stands his ground and makes it entertaining. In this case, Ted neither stood his ground nor was entertaining.

The whole show is not entertaining. It’s a grind. Not many real laughs. Maybe that will change as they get more comfortable as a group.

It would be much more entertaining if they discussed these since-deleted tweets from Ted from last week- tweets that were fired off Friday at 3:47 AM. I don’t think they came up during the “Ted Talks” segment. (The reply on the right was actually not deleted. Still there.)

The hosts will be the ones to take the brunt of the criticism, but this is mostly on Thomas and Laird. They continue to make decisions that suggest they don’t care about their listening audience. Throwing this show together is just the latest example.

---

On Patrick Mahomes v. Tom Brady…

This will be a popular sports radio topic on Radio Row next week in New Orleans.

Patrick Mahomes first seven seasons as a starter > Tom Brady’s, even if the Chiefs lose next Sunday - that’s not really up for debate. The same should be said for Mahomes v. Brady and their G.O.A.T battle.

It’s Brady. Any notion that it’s Mahomes is fueled by Brady (or Patriots) Hate, Mahomes (or Chiefs) Insanity, or just plain sports stupidity. Here are some crib notes to defuse the argument if it comes up at your Super Bowl party or in your group text over the next week.

• Even if the Chiefs win, it’s still 7-4 Brady

• Brady went 2-0 v. Mahomes in the playoffs

• Brady went to Tampa and won with Airans, beating Mahomes in the process

• Both guys had Hall of Fame TEs, but Brady won his first three w/ out Gronk

• The longevity factor, duh

• Brady did it (well some of it) before the NFL rules and officiating became so tilted toward offense

• Brady missed a full season thanks to injury and came back better

I could go on, but feel free to use this quick list when it comes up. It’s a silly argument, but you’ll be bombarded with it over the next week. Be prepared.

---

On our early Big Game Props and Bets - Presented by Sharp Hunter…

Sharp Hunter shows you where the actual sharp money is going by aggregating the best picks from sharp bettors, giving you access to winning insights and trends. All in real-time. That does not mean every bet with a Sharp Score always wins, but I love knowing who the informed gamblers are betting on... even if I want to bet against them.

Get locked in for The Big Game, NBA, and College Hoops action - now is THE time to take advantage of Sharp Hunter’s free 7-day trial. They offer three-day, monthly, and annual subscriptions after that. Get started for free right here ➡️➡️➡️ Sharp Hunter.

Championship Round 2-1
Season Record: 30-33* (47.6%) 🤢🤢🤢
* - Total includes 8-1 ATTD winner on Foster Moreau Week 17

Going 3-0 in my final three “picks” next week would get me to 33-33, but it won’t overshadow it was a down year for the MutStack picks.

We’ll have a full betting breakdown and game handicap of Super Bowl LIX next week, complete with a MutStack Podcast on Wednesday. But you want some early thoughts? Sure.

I’ve already bet Chiefs ML. A few times. There are many reasons why, but this stat from former WEEI teammate Ryan Hannable is certainly one of them—

Patrick Mahomes + Andy Reid > any other QB + coach combo in the NFL. If you’re telling me I can have them -124 on the ML or at -110 as under a FG favorite, I’m going to keep betting on them. Mahomes is now 28-9-1 ATS as a dog or a favorite of less than three points.

Action Network has Mahomes a career 14-1 SU in dome games (loss at Lions). I have him 16-1 SU in domes/retro roof games with 38 TD - 6 INT and a QB rating over 105.

Alone, these three stats/trends should not be the only reasons to bet on a team. But when you add them to the actual handicap of the game on the field (we’ll get to that next week), you have some compelling reasons to back the Super Bowl favorite a week from Sunday. As of Friday morning, the sharps at Sharp Hunter agree.

Mahomes UNDER 36.5 pass attempts (DK -125)
I bet this Thursday UNDER 35.5 +104 DK. We’re now at 36.5 and juiced up at most books and I’d still bet this. Feels like a low-scoring where both teams may try and run the ball. Mahomes runs the ball more in the postseason (he’s averaging over seven carries a game in four previous Super Bowls) and that will take away from pass attempts. So,

Mahomes rushing yards OVER 29.5 (FanDuel -110)
Last five games vs Vic Fangio's defense, Mahomes is averaging over 31 yards per game. And he runs more in the playoffs, see above.

Will Jalen Hurts score an Octopus YES (FanDuel 27-1)
Will Hurts score a TD and then the subsequent two-point conversion like he did in 2023? At 27-1, I’ll play for a few bucks. If you want multiple options…

Will there be an Octopus YES (DK 14-1)
Any player can score for you to win. Let’s see if more books post this prop over the next week. Interested in Hurts and Mahomes.

It’s worth watching whether we get odds on a player to convert a two-point conversion. And can you parlay that with a TD bet and get better odds? We’ll see.

Much more next week.

---

On your sports media and sports betting notes…

➡️ David Field has been the CEO of media company Audacy since 2002 - when it was then known as Entercom. It was announced Wednesday he was stepping down, effective immediately. Last January, Audacy filed for bankruptcy and now lists the Soros Fund as its largest majority shareholder. That’s notable as George Soros is a “left-wing mega doner” and at least one lawmaker wants an investigation into how and why the FCC fast-tracked the sale to allow Soros to get majority control of a company that owns 200 radio stations.

It’s a big, national radio story, and here’s why I believe Field’s exit is significant to this newsletter - he’s a huge sports fan. He was a driving force in the fast expansion of the Audacy Sports umbrella. And he LOVES the Red Sox and the WEEI branding that goes with it. He’s such a Sox fan he was there celebrating late into the night with WEEI staff in 2013 when the Sox beat the Cardinals in Game 6 of the World Series. I know because I was there with him.

Local Audacy sports stations have already experienced major cuts (Las Vegas, Milwaukee) over the last few years. If the new CEO—potentially backed by Soros and his majority ownership stake—decides to examine sports stations and their performance seriously, WEEI in Boston could be in trouble.

Audacy pays the Red Sox a fortune to broadcast the games (Rough guess between $5-10 million/year). This season, the Red Sox are taking control of the radio broadcast booth. Is there a chance, now with Sox Superfan Field out, that the games themselves find a new home in the next few years? A few people I spoke to this week thought that was a real possibility.

Would WEEI continue to be an all-sports station if they lose the Red Sox rights and suddenly have no local play-by-play partner? Hard to imagine that, long-term.

It is worth monitoring if you’re a sports fan in Boston.

➡️ We have a second NBA betting scandal in as many years, this time involving former Celtics guard Terry Rozier. The suggestion is that in a game on March 3, 2023, Rozier may have told bettors he would exit early with an injury. Some sportsbooks pulled his prop bets before the game thanks to abnormal betting. ESPN reports the same bettors involved in the Jontay Porter scandal are involved here. Not great!

➡️ And another from ESPN. Ippei Mizuhara - the interpreter who stole $17 million from Shohei Ohtani - claimed he had a “long-standing gambling addiction” that led him to defraud the Dodgers superstar. As his sentencing nears, federal investigators claim they can’t find any evidence of that gambling addiction. This is huge news. A bookie already pled guilty to taking Mizuhara’s bets. So if he wasn't the one with a gambling problem, who was???

➡️ Unless there is an amendment to the sports betting menu in Massachusetts between now and next Sunday, you will not be able to legally bet on the Super Bowl coin toss. You can drive over the border to New Hampshire and bet on tails (never fails, duh) but as of this moment not in MA…at least legally.

➡️ You’re the G.O.A.T, but stay in your own lane, Tom Brady.

TOMORROW…back with our first Derby Prep Post of the 2025 Kentucky Derby Season. Three races to handicap as Derby 151 is just 92 days away.

Good luck with all your bets. And thanks for reading.

Good weekend.