Friday Four-Pack 1.3.25

Pats decision with Jerod Mayo should be clear. An appreciation of honest announcers. NFL Picks and the latest in media notes!

“The Chris Rose/Ross Tucker broadcast tandem was glib and mistake-prone. But Rose gets a nod of approval for referencing Larry Bird returning to the game after banging his head on the floor against the Pacers in the 1991 playoffs upon Maye’s return Saturday.” - Chad Finn, Boston Globe

Let me open the first Friday Four-Pack of 2025 by disagreeing with the Boston Globe and their sports media reporter.

Chris Rose did a nice job in the tribute to Greg Gumbel as part of Pats/Chargers Saturday on the NFL Network. Didn’t take himself or the blowout game too seriously. He was fine.

But Ross Tucker? Ross Tucker was not glib - he was excellent.

Because unlike the large majority of guys in his position, Tucker was willing to call out the Patriots on their bullshit in an embarrassing blowout loss to the Chargers.

It started with Tucker reacting to Jerod Mayo telling he and the broadcast team that Rhamondre Stevenson would be benched to start the game. Of course, Stevenson then started, adding to the list of silly media gaffes by Mayo this season.

“Well that’s what we were told when we met with the team yesterday,” Tucker told the TV audience early in the game. “They said (Antonio) Gibson was going to get the start because they wanted to send a message about accountability and about how important ball security is. I’m stunned that Stevenson is starting this game.”

On the same play, Drake Maye got his bell rung when rather than try and slide and get out of harm’s way, he took a shot to the head on a scramble when he was going to be well short of a first down. Tucker again was critical—this time of the player, not the head coach. And he was 100% right.

“That is not the right decision there...for this team and this organization. He needs to protect himself.”

Tucker’s harsh assessments of the team continued after a second-quarter turnover - their league-leading 29th fumble of the season.

“It doesn’t even give you a chance. You’re already talking about arguably the worst roster in the league. And then to have that many turnovers, that many fumbles on top of it? They probably have the worst offensive line in the league. They almost definitely have the worst receiving corps. If you’re going to have that kind of roster, you gotta take care of the ball,” Tucker said.

This is sports radio stuff, not NFL Network in-game analysis. It was glorious. And it continued throughout the broadcast.

🏈 Tucker and Rose dunking on the Patriots for trading out of the spot the Chargers would draft Ladd McConkey - instead they’d draft Ja’Lynn Polk.

🏈 Harped on the team getting no pressure on Justin Herbert on third down. The Chargers would end the day 10-17 (59%) on third down and 2-2 (100%) on fourth down.

🏈 “I have no idea what kind of coverage they’re in.” - an exasperated Tucker on yet another LA touchdown.

🏈 Tucker openly questioned who would be making the decisions for the team going forward after an embarrassing season.

There was nothing glib about Tucker’s performance - he was refreshingly honest about the Patriots and was as critical as one can possibly be talking about a team on NFL Network in 2024 (and I guess now 2025).

I much prefer this approach over the shots of the Krafts in the owner’s box (although we did get one of those) and the fawning over the team drafting Drake Maye. The kid looks terrific but let’s be honest, he fell into their lap at No. 3 and the team was taking whoever of Maye, Jayden Daniels, or Caleb Williams was there in that spot. Everything else besides the Maye pick has gone pretty poorly for the team since last spring.

I want that brutal honesty when I’m watching a game, even if my team is on the wrong end of it. Good for Tucker for calling it like it is, rather than trying to put a positive spin on what has been a cringeworthy season for the Patriots.

Meanwhile, when it comes to the head coach, the move for the Patriots is pretty clear. Some assorted thoughts on Boston sports heading into 2025. Plus NFL Picks (that have mostly sucked TBH) and your weekly media nuggets.

All ahead in today’s Four-Pack.

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On Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo…

No matter what happens on Sunday the decision should be clear - the Patriots should fire Jerod Mayo.

We’ll start on the field. We’ve spent enough time on the offense - it’s bland and devoid of talent. But let’s focus on the defense here for a second.

Top 10 DVOA-ranked defense a year ago. Heading into Week 18 ranked 30th - 31st against the pass and 28th against the run. Don’t get sacks. Don’t create turnovers. Show nothing innovative or creative on that side of the ball. Just…nothing.

This comes against the 22nd-ranked defensive schedule in the league per DVOA. And it was the 30th-ranked schedule before playing the Bills and Chargers.

Mayo is a defensive guy. The defense has gotten worse since last year and worse as the season has gone on. When Mayo was asked about it, he blamed an injury to ZERO TIME Pro-Bowler Ja’Whaun Bentley. Seriously.

Okay, how about off the field….it’s been just as bad. Mayo has to backtrack on something he’s said to the media on almost a weekly basis. This week, we had the “coach’s decision” on the move to not bench his starting running back after telling the broadcast teams that Antonio Gibson would start over the fumble-prone Rhamondre Stevenson.

Buried under that was Mayo claiming that Keion White was taken out of context by the media when he was critical of the team and questioned his future with the Patriots. White disputed his coach after the blowout loss to the Chargers on Saturday.

“I don’t really care how it came across as long as we’re on the same page and my teammates know where I stand. I don’t really care how it came across. Me and Mayo had a conversation. We’re on the same page.”

Mayo has cultivated an atmosphere where his players feel like they can speak out - even against the fans. Linebacker Jahlani Tavai said Friday morning on WEEI that the fans need to “know their place.”

“There’s a reason why they’re fans. Everybody can say what they think we should be doing, but in the long end they’re not qualified to do what Mayo is doing or whatever the Krafts are doing,” Tavai said on The Greg Hill Show.

“They’re fans, I appreciate them at times, but sometimes they just gotta know their place and just understand that it’s a work in progress. Rome wasn’t built in one day.”

I’m sure that will go over well with ownership. And the fanbase.

Then there are the logistics. You can’t fire OC Alex Van Pelt and not also fire DC DeMarcus Covington: the defense has been as bad as the offense (also 30th DVOA). How can you fire just one of them?

So, you’re going to fire both those guys and try to find two new coordinators who want to coach under a head coach who was on the hot seat after Year 1? That seems impossible.

Looming over all of this is the reality you found your post-Brady quarterback in Drake Maye. Matt Stafford was hampered by his coaches until he got free of the Lions. Maye could suffer the same fate (great QB/bad coaching) and you need to have a staff in place you feel good about to develop his talents over the next five seasons.

How could anyone feel good about Mayo after just this one season? The same goes for VP of Player Personnel Eliot Wolf, who should also be sent packing. He promised a new attitude for the franchise and a functional offensive line - 0 for 2 there, Eliot.

The Krafts need to rip the bandaid off now, admit you made mistakes, and reset for 2025. That’s what they should do.

Will they? I doubt it. I don’t think Bob Kraft will move on from his hand-picked Belichick successor after just one season. Instead, they’ll move on from Van Pelt and a few other coaches. Maybe add some pieces to the front-office staff. And that will be it.

I hope I’m wrong and the right move is too obvious for even the Krafts to ignore.

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On your Boston teams heading into 2025…

🏈 If the team does show some guts and move on from Mayo, I want one of the same two guys I pushed for here a year ago - coaching free agent Mike Vrabel or Lions OC Ben Johnson.

Vrabel has whispered to media members around the team he’d like to coach here. The Athletic has a great long-form piece with and about Vrabel published Friday morning. This from his time with the Titans stood out.

Vrabel would get to the facility early in the morning to workout and, for hours, camp outside the training room. If a player didn’t show up for treatment on time, he’d call them to “make sure they had a great morning,” (Ben) Jones said, laughing.

The emphasis on accountability stretched from the practice squad up to the team’s biggest stars. Vrabel was unafraid to call out A.J. Brown or Jeffery Simmons or Derrick Henry in front of the entire team. There was candor — brutal at times. Not everyone appreciated it, and Vrabel admits that, at times, he focused too much on the things players were doing wrong, instead of highlighting the things they were doing right. But most of the Titans locker room understood where he was coming from.

He brings a credibility that Mayo does not have as head coach—at least yet.

Johnson - an elite offensive mind that will be in high demand - might look at Maye as the best young quarterback available to go coach. That and assurances from the Krafts that he can run the show his way might be enough to lure him to New England. He’s viewed as a longshot to want to coach here, but Maye’s talent could alter that calculus.

🏀 Concern level on the Boston Celtics: 0%

No Jaylen Brown Thursday night, no problem. Are there still people questioning the greatness of Jayson Tatum? They should go watch his third quarter against the Timberwolves a few dozen times.

Heading into the New Year, the Celtics remain one of just three teams in the NBA that are top-10 in both offense and defense, schedule-adjusted at DunksAndThrees.com, per Matt Moore’s excellent NBA Substack.

I won’t argue that, as my friend Kirk Minihane has harped on for months, the league’s reliance on three-pointers has made it a tough watch. The C’s average OVER 50 3-point attempts per game. The Bulls and Hornets missed a combined 75 3’s in a game this past month. Ratings are down and these numbers are a big reason why.

But the Celtics remain huge favorites to win the East (+100) and the NBA Title (+200). Unless they suffer a major injury or one of the contenders is able to flip a big trade to bolster their own chances, those odds seem pretty fair.

🏈 Not great!

⚾ If this is it for the Red Sox offseason…also not great.

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Week 17: 1-2 /// Season Record: 24-27* (47%) 🤢🤢🤢
* - Total includes 8-1 ATTD winner on Foster Moreau Week 17

That Denver OT loss was painful. Foster Moreau at 8-1 ATTD is one of my better ideas and scores of the year. He was as low as +275 at BetMGM vs. 8-1 at Caesars and DraftKings. MAKE SURE YOU ARE SHOPPING FOR THE BEST PRICE POSSIBLE ON WHAT YOU’RE TRYING TO BET.

The Side
JETS +1 VS. DOLPHINS (-105, BetMGM)

People make too much about wanting to bet on teams that HAVE to win late in the year against teams that have been eliminated. From the Action Network - “Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 105-69-4 (60%) against the spread (ATS).”

Enter the Jets on Sunday.

Yes, Miami needs a win and a Denver loss to make the playoffs. Yes, a Jets win hurts their draft pick. At worst, the Jets might fall from the 7th to the 10th pick. But with an interim coach at the helm and the potential Aaron Rodgers Final Game narrative, I think the Jets play to win here.

“To even be a small part of his story is, it's an honor," interim coach Jeff Ulbrich said. "And if it happens to be his last game, let's take him out on the right note.”

Tyler Huntley (43rd of 46 QBs passing success rate) is in-line to start for the Dolphins in the cold and wind of East Rutherford, NJ. It’s ugly, but the Jets are the play.

The Total
BUCS TDS OVER 3.5 (+110 DK)

I am probably overthinking this. You should probably just play the over 43.5. Or the over 28.5 team total for Tampa.

I’m too stupid to do that.

The Bucs put up 51 against the Saints a few weeks ago. They get them again Sunday in a game the Bucs need to lock in a playoff spot. It’s also a game where both Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield have incentives to light up the scoreboard. For Evans, he gets more money (8 rec, 85 yards gets him an extra $3 million) and for Baker, he can set a Bucs team record (5 TD passes get him past Tom Brady). I think they’ll score a bunch of TDs on Sunday and will gamble on the +110.

The Saints’ defense is not good…the weather looks glorious Sunday in Tampa. Give me all the Tampa touchdowns.

The Prop
TONY POLLARD ATTD (-115 DK)

Pollard needs a pair of TDs to score an extra $200K (contract incentive). The Titans face a Texans team locked into the four-seed in the AFC and could pull their starters at any time. Titans’ coaches have acknowledged the bonuses at stake for Pollard and it sounds like they’ll make an effort to get him there. Pollard has been banged up so it will be worth watching the Friday practice report on Tennessee.

Bonus Prop
TONY POLLARD 2+ TDS (5-1 DRAFTKINGS)

This has been bet down from 6.5 to 1 at open but still worth a peek if Pollard is ready to go. This is only up at DK and Caesars (+360) as of Friday morning. The way these books price (and misprice) props late in the year, it’s worth searching out this weekend for a crazy number.

Will update and add more bets Sunday morning as we get more clarity on guys who are in/out in Week 18.

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On your sports media and sports betting notebook…

➡️ I usually get a good amount of texts from media people - both in and out of the Boston market - after our quarterly Boston radio ratings reviews. Last week was no exception. Most of it this time around focused on the dismal Fall for WEEI’s afternoons and nights. The consensus from most was even if it’s not a move for a big name, the WEEI Afternoon Show will see changes before Red Sox Opening Day on March 27.

➡️ From the 100% speculation department - could WEEI look at Nick Cattles and Greg Bedard as two new pieces for afternoon drive?

I’m told WEEI has had multiple conversations with Bedard in the past about coming over full-time. When Cattles talks about doing more radio with Greg, that’s not likely to happen at The Sports Hub - unless he’s hinting at a permanent weekend show.

I don’t think they’d put a scare in Felger and Mazz, but I do think change is coming 2-6 at WEEI. A move like that also allows you to move Christian Arcand to nights/Red Sox. Something to keep an eye on.

➡️ Speaking of the Red Sox, after years at places like Foxwoods and MGM Springfield, the Red Sox Winterfest becomes a Fenway Park Fanfest in 2025. It takes place next Saturday at Fenway Park and the MGM Music Hall next door. Don’t be surprised when the event is the platform for the team to announce that Dave O’Brien and Lou Merloni will be the team’s main announcing duo on NESN, while Will Flemming and Will Middlebrooks become the main radio team on WEEI.

➡️ Cattles and Bedard had the sense to hammer the “Will Drake Maye really start on Sunday?” topic when I was listening on New Year’s Day. It was the best talker in Boston. Meanwhile, WEEI’s new afternoon producer/host Dan Bahl was doing 20 minutes with a guest about the college football playoffs. Tough scene.

➡️ One voice I don’t think will end up back at WEEI is John Tomase, who found out this week that NBC Sports Boston would not renew his contract after six years there. Tomase is known as the author of the Boston Herald’s Matt Walsh taped walkthrough story that was eventually proven false. In his time at NBC Sports Boston, he was willing to call out the Red Sox on their crap over the years. That approach will be missed by Sox fans.

And with that, we have for sure said it all.

A happy and healthy 2025 to you and yours. Back on Sunday morning with updates for the NFL picks. We’re due to get hot here heading into the playoffs.

Good luck with all the bets this weekend. And thanks for reading.

Good weekend.