Friday Four-Pack 3.15.24
The Peak of #BlameBelichick. A major 'Dynasty' flaw. Dismal WEEI ratings. Do THIS before the NCAA Tournament starts.
Today’s Four-Pack is pretty football and sports media-heavy.
So in my role as sports betting advisor to you, the loyal MutStack reader and subscriber, let me quickly give you an important reminder before the start of the NCAA Tournament next Thursday.
There are going to be a lot of sportsbook deals out there. Each mobile sportsbook is trying to get you to bet with them and only them. They want you to be lazy and blindly open their app and fire away, ignoring odds, deals, etc.
That’s stupid. Don’t do that.
You should check the promo page for each sportsbook for bonus bets and deals every day starting next week. You might even see some this weekend with the conference tournaments and Selection Sunday.
March Madness and the start of the NFL season are historically times when the books use these bonuses to try and lock you in.
Make sure you have funds in whatever apps you use well in advance of next Thursday. You don’t want to be fumbling around with deposits when you should be handicapping the games and firing off bets on some college team you’re just learning about for the first time.
It will also allow you to compare and find the best lines, which you should already be doing if you’re trying to win money in the long run.
And if there are mobile books in your state you have not signed up for, those might offer some better-than-usual sign-up bonuses for March Madness. Fanatics seem to have a decent deal now for new users but check the details to see if it makes sense for you.
I can’t help you with your bracket, but being funded and taking advantage of the likely bonuses that come with the start of the NCAA Tournament can help you avoid the dreaded deposit button. For a few days, at least.
As I said, we have some football issues to discuss in today’s Four-Pack. Thanks for reading.
On Episodes 9 & 10 of Apple TV’s The Dynasty: New England Patriots
At lunch Wednesday with The Kirk Minihane Show crew, it came up that a few of the diehard Patriots supporters at the table have not watched any of the much-discussed docuseries about the team.
For them and any other fans who plan on eventually watching, buckle up for Episode 9.
Long-rumored to be the episode in the 10-part series most critical of Bill Belichick - in a series where the tone has always felt anti-Bill - Episode 9 delivers.
Titled “Breaking Point,” it starts with then-candidate and eventually President Donald Trump reading a letter of support from Belichick on the eve of the 2016 presidential election.
Giving Trump the okay to read the letter at the New Hampshire rally was a decision captain Matthew Slater called “hypocritical” given Belichick’s insistence his players don’t create distractions outside the team.
From there, we dig into Bill denying Tom Brady’s trainer/masseuse/guru/best friend Alex Guerrero access to the Patriots' facilities and players.
Next, we have Belichick being painted as “heartbroken” after being forced to trade Jimmy Garappolo when Robert Kraft tells him the team will never trade Brady.
The entire season is depicted as a joyless endeavor - one that ends with a Super Bowl showdown against Nick Folk and the Philadelphia Eagles. That game should be remembered for Brady throwing for an NFL playoff record 505 yards in a Patriots win.
Instead, it’s the Malcolm Butler game.
Everyone on camera - Brady. Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski - all critical of the decision not to play Butler in that game. Butler himself claims he still doesn’t know why after playing 98% of the snaps for the team that season as a starting cornerback, he dressed for but was also benched for the game. And told of the decision right before kickoff.
His benching remains one of the biggest mysteries in New England sports history.
Asked on camera about the decision, Belichick tells director Matt Hamachek, “Yeah Matt, we talked about that.” Of course, they had not in this series, nor has Belichick ever been willing to give any real answer publicly.
Robert Kraft gave a much more detailed and pointed answer.
“What has been told to me, is that there was something personal going on between Bill and Malcolm, that was not football-related,” Kraft says in episode nine. “I always felt that every decision Bill had made had been to put what was in the best interest of the team first and put emotion aside…but with Malcolm, he did just the opposite.”
Even in Episode 10, Kraft mentions “keeping an eye on Bill” heading into Super Bowl LIII, based on the Butler decision the previous year. And buries Belichick in the process.
“I credited Bill with that (Super Bowl 52) loss.” “To be honest, my coach is a pain in the tush. But I’m willing to out up with it as long as we won. So for the next Super Bowl, I wanted to keep my eye on him.”
Like most New England fans, Kraft is not over it.
The whole episode is a tour de force in Belichick Blame. From Trump to Guerrero to Butler. #BlameBelichick
And given how miserable the team seems to have been that season, it’s a miracle they made it to the Super Bowl.
Episode 10 “End Game,” has some good football stuff (shocking for this series, I know) on Belichick’s defensive gameplan that held the high-powered Rams to just a field goal in a Super Bowl 53 victory.
Before that, we get new insight from Slater on how cold the Brady/Belichick relationship was that entire season: to the point where Brady would ask the captain to relay messages to the head coach because Brady was not even speaking with him.
We even get a clip I’d never seen before, where Brady walks away from Bill mid-sentence as the two talk on the field during the game. It's a stunning lack of respect, but not surprising given the details of the episode.
We eventually get details of the post-Super Bowl breakup, many of which have already been reported by Seth Wickersham, Tom E. Curran and others. These come with the added commentary of Brady, Kraft and Belichick.
But here’s the fatal flaw looming over the entire episode and one that once again makes it look like this whole thing has been a vanity project for the Krafts - THEY NEVER ONCE TALK ABOUT BRADY’S CONTRACT.
This was a HUGE talking point at the time. It dominated sports talk radio and was the only topic for days at a time.
In 2018, reports were Brady was looking for the Drew Brees deal: something like
2 years/$50 million. Instead, he was forced to play for $5 million in incentives. The greatest quarterback in football, being paid the 20th most in the NFL at the position.
The following summer, Brady gave this infamous quote when asked if he deserved a contract extension.
"I don't know. That's up for talkshow debate," Brady said. "What do you guys think? Should we take a poll? Talk to Mr. Kraft, come on. No, like I said, we've got a great relationship so we'll see how it goes."
According to Wickersham, Brady never got the offer he wanted, almost left training camp and eventually took a deal that he knew would make that season his final in England. There have always been rumors Brady was close to not traveling to the team’s preseason joint practices and game against Tennessee that August.
None of this comes in in Episode 10. It’s all put on Brady changing and Belichick's unwillingness to give in.
There is no doubt that Robert Kraft deserves a metric ton of credit for his work as owner keeping Brady and Belichick around for 20 years. But it’s simply fan fiction not to include the contract battles and their impact.
Once you get past the failure of not including the Brady contract stuff, Episode 10 is probably the most interesting in the series. Some strong Brady v. Belichick moments on camera ( a cold Super Bowl 53 embrace among them) help illustrate how strained the relationship became. With a solid helping of Kraft v. Belichick, too.
As for a letter grade for the series…I don’t know B-? Maybe a B? It puts far too much blame for the things that went wrong on Belichick. And absolves - and in the case of the Brady contract stuff in Episode 10 ignores - times when the Krafts deserved more criticism. Belichick’s unwillingness to take part in the project hurts the whole thing.
The big question becomes will Belichick ever respond, through either a media source or with his own book down the road? That would be fascinating.
On a very bad weekly for Sports Radio WEEI…
We’ll start with the good news, if you can call it that.
The above numbers - first posted publically by Kirk earlier this week - are just 8.33% of Boston’s quarterly winter ratings period.
There are still 11 other ‘weeklies’ that will make up the winter book. This one specifically is February Week 3, which covers February 15-22. The winter book runs from January 4 to March 27. And these are raw numbers, that could look better with some tweaks to what hours are being rated and any streaming bonuses added in.
That’s where any of the good news ends.
This week includes the President’s Day holiday, a day historically that has fewer people commuting and thus fewer people listening to the radio, but it didn’t seem to bother rival 98.5 The Sports Hub.
That same week, they did 16.3 in the morning, 14.9 in midday, 17.1 in afternoon drive. These numbers are the Men25-54 ‘sports radio demo.”
And the numbers are a continuation of the blowout win 98.5 The Sports Hub had this past fall. We covered this here extensively, with charts and everything! Based on this weekly, the Hub is in a position to extend its lead in the ratings this winter.
And when you consider the potential for both Bruins and Celtics postseason runs well into June, it could be worse in the spring. The Sports Hub carries both teams on the radio in Boston.
And it’s not a surprise. Outside of some decent numbers from WEEI’s “The Greg Hill Show” in the mornings, there have been no other signs of life from the other dayparts going back months.
This happens in other markets, where one sports station dominates the other. In NY, WFAN crushes ESPN NY. In Philadelphia, WIP routinely buries “The Fanatic” WPEN. It is now the reality in Boston.
This past Monday was the first day of free agency. The Pats had traded Mac Jones the day before. Football was the biggest story in Boston, as usual.
At 5:30, the middle of the most listened-to hour of afternoon drive, The Hub went to commercial break as scheduled.
On WEEI, listeners got 8+ minutes of Kate Middleton talk.
Am I nitpicking? Probably. But given that some people only tune into your show once or twice a day, you need to be locked into what Men25-54 or Men35-64 are interested in, especially in that hour. I don’t think that was or is Kate Middleton.
Not surprising, but morale doesn’t appear to be great over there at the moment.
As for potential lineup changes before Red Sox season, word is most Audacy-owned stations are under a pretty strict hiring freeze as the company navigates out of bankruptcy and hands the company over to new owners.
Just last week, Audacy sold their current Boston studio space (that includes WEEI) in Brighton to a developer. It sounds like they’ll stay there for a few years while they build out new studios elsewhere.
So any changes would probably mean moving current hosts around. I will not be totally shocked if Rich Keefe ends up with Adam Jones at some point, on some daypart.
The February monthly ratings are out next week. We won’t get the full winter ratings until mid-April. But there’s no reason to think they won’t lopsided in favor of The Sports Hub once again.
On the start of the Patriots’ offseason…
It’s not worth spending a lot of time on Mac Jones.
A majority of the fanbase will never admit that the team never put him in a real position to succeed.
From handing him Matt Patricia as his coordinator to a lack of offensive talent around him to Belichick’s obvious disdain for the former Alabama signal caller… Mac Jones was set up to fail here - thanks to the shortcomings mostly of the head coach and the people in charge.
Was he Tom Brady? Of course not. But he was never given a fair shake.
Feel free to disagree in the comments below. You’re wrong, but I look forward to the debate.
As for the rest of the offseason…woof.
SO MUCH CASH TO BURN!
I hate to pile on because it’s such an obvious take, but what a brutal start to the Eliot Wolf Era.
When the Red Sox hired Dave Dombrowski, he said in one of his first press conferences that the team needed a closer and better starting pitching. Then he went out and traded for Craig Kimbrel and signed David Price that offseason.
Kimbrel worked out much better for the team than Price, but Dombrowksi backed up his words with real moves. The team went on to make the playoffs in three straight seasons, capping it off with their 2018 World Series win.
When Wolf said the Patriots needed to “weaponize the offense” a few weeks ago, I expected more than mistake-prone running back Antonio Gibson in the first four days of free agency.
They lost out on Calvin Ridley and the other top-end receivers in the free agent market, even armed with all that CASH TO BURN. They never asked the Chargers about Keenan Allen, who was traded to the Bears overnight Thursday for a fourth-round pick. Speedsters Darnell Mooney and Marquise Brown landed elsewhere.
Most of their capital has been spent bringing back players from a team that was 4-13.
Wolf and the team have been happy to tell everyone how different the program would be post-Belickick. Did they think that would be enough to appease the fans?
To use a poker term, it appears the only ‘out’ they have left as far as getting a true #1 type receiver is trading for Tee Higgins. Maybe Mike Williams as a free agent, who was just cut by the Chargers? That’s about it.
We’re less than a week into free agency and the patience of the fanbase already appears to be wearing thin.
It’s one thing to sit quietly and do nothing. It’s another to tell everyone you’re going to do something and THEN do nothing.
On your Friday MutStack notes…
Sounds like we’ll finally get the Jared Carrabis announcement next week. It’s been delayed a few times since he left DraftKings last month. Dave Portnoy suggested a few weeks back that Carrabis was headed to Underdog Fantasy. There’s no reason to think that’s not the case as Underdog expands into sports betting in 2024. There’s also the fact that Carrabis’ old co-hosts from his Section 10 podcast days, Coley Mick and Steve Perrault, are both now working for Underdog. Seems a likely match.
Last Saturday we tabbed Domestic Product as the winner of the Tampa Bay Derby. He won the race, but we didn’t cash. In fact, no one did, thanks to a tote outage that forced Tampa Bay Downs to run the race with no betting.
It was another in what has been a long list of embarrassing moments for a sport and industry just struggling to keep up at this point. I urge you to read Chuck Simon’s sobering take on the calamity.It won’t help us for March Madness, but looks like Bally’s mobile sportsbook Bally Bet could launch in Massachusetts in early summer after some delays. Still hoping for Circa and Underdog at some point.
Hey! You’ll notice you can now direct message me here on MutStack.com
You’ll have to be subscribed and have a free account (takes just a few seconds to sign up) but I’ll try and respond to every suggestion, note, hate, etc. Comments open below, too.
I think we’ve truly said it all.
No Kentucky Derby preps this week. We’ll spend our time rooting for UConn and UMass Lowell in the Big East and America East, respectively.
Good luck with all your bets. Go Huskies. And River Hawks.
Good weekend.
Great stuff as always MM...a lot to cover this week, and spot on with the Belichick hit...he's becoming more of a sympathetic figure every day in NE sticking with the "give them enough rope" strategy, and Kraft has a shitload of rope...
You're take on 'EEI in the PM is interesting. Unfortunate, because I happen to think Andolini has some of the more succinct takes on there, Adam is so focused on psychoanalyzing every single thing anyone in the industry says into a mic in the most negative way possible, so that keeps him busy...keep it up, Mut. JTD
I am surprised EEI has that high of ratting, what a bore nowadays. I miss the good old days but alas, they won't be back. interested to see how they draft, never one of Bill's strengths