Friday Four-Pack 5.2.25
The most underappreciated man in Boston sports. What a week for the Belichick's! Kentucky Derby weekend is here.
🏀 He was the first NBA coach for Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, who have emerged as Top 15 players in the NBA. In Tatum’s case, Top 5 player in the NBA.
🏀 And he kept them locked in, even after the Kyrie Irving debacle. Kyrie could have torn this thing whole apart; people forget that.
🏀 Moved willingly to the front office, helping to fill the void left by Wyc Grousbeck’s main confidant, Danny Ainge.
🏀 Hired him to his own staff and then promoted Joe Mazzulla to head coach.
🏀 In his first move at GM, landed Derrick White for Josh Richardson, Romeo Langford, a 2022 1st, and a 2028 1st swap. One of the best trades in team history.
🏀 Moved Kemba Walker (shoutout UConn) and his bloated contract for Al Horford.
🏀 Flipped Marcus Smart in a deal that landed Kristaps Porzingis.
🏀 Got Jrue Holiday from the rival Bucks, for two guys who could not stay healthy in Robert Williams and Malcolm Brogdon.
🏀 Was key in helping land undrafted FA Sam Hauser when two or three other teams wanted to sign him.
🏀 Has kept the two superstars—Brown and Tatum—content in their respective primes.
🏀 2024 NBA Champs - thanks to many of these moves and his coaching work.
🏀 Inked multiple current players to fair contract extensions, keeping the group together.
Look at that list. I’m sure there is more we could add to it. Look at the spot the team is in. Look at their run: winners of their last five playoff series—all in five games or less!
Brad Stevens is the most underappreciated figure in Boston sports. Not just this season but over the last twenty years. I get he won a million more titles, and this is crazy actually to type, but this is truly Red Auerbach-type stuff here. Just look at that list!
And no one ever talks about it. Or writes about it. Or Tweets about it. Or TikTok’s (is that how the kids say it?) about it. He could have left for Duke or Indiana or an NBA sideline, but he’s stayed for now, and he’s a primary reason the team is -155 favorites to get back to the NBA Finals. There’ll be work to do this offseason, but having Stevens make the important calls will be critical for the team’s future.
As his team gets set to take on the Knicks, they’ll be plenty written about Tatum. And Brown. And Holiday’s injury. And tired Boston vs. New York storylines. Not enough will be written or said about the impact of Brad Stevens.
Adam Vinatieri’s impact is not highlighted enough, probably because he’s a kicker. Dave Dombrowski was an excellent Sox GM, but he gets lost in the shuffle when discussing the team’s championship success. Both can claim to be on the recent All-Underappreciated Team for Boston sports.
But the captain of that team? The MVP? Brad Stevens. From coach to team president, his fingerprints are all over what might be the next Boston sports dynasty.
Meanwhile, what a week for Bill and Lady Belichick. It’s Kentucky Derby Weekend, and I have many, many thoughts. Plus some WEEI/Hub follow-up.
All ahead in this week’s Four-Pack.
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On a hell of a week for Bill and Lady Belichick…
Congrats, Bill Belichick, you’re a funny meme.
I don’t get much right, but if you’ve read this newsletter over the last year, I nailed this one. Bill and Jordon Hudson have been on a wild ride from the beginning. I’m hesitant to say we’ve peaked with this story since Bill has yet to even coach a game at North Carolina, but this was some week.
🏈 The wildly awkward CBS Sunday Morning interview. Fake ‘old’ Navy sweatshirt with a pretend tear in it. Defensive Bill. Hudson interjecting herself into the interview. Credit Tony Dokoupil for asking some basic, fair questions that led to Jordon’s viral moment above.
🏈 Hudson starts reposting people critical of CBS's approach to the interview. Later that day, she teases an official statement.
🏈 Reports swirl that Hudson was a massive presence in the interview, even more than CBS shows.
🏈 Hudson never issues an official statement. Instead, that comes from Belichick through the UNC Media Relations team. Boy, I’m sure they’re thrilled right now, huh? The statement says that Bill was told CBS would keep the interview to just football, but they lied. Bill has always loved crapping on the media.
🏈 CBS News fires back, saying, "There were no preconditions or limitations to this conversation. This was confirmed repeatedly with his publisher before the interview took place and after it was released."
🏈 The NY Post published a story that shows Hudson “has amassed a New England real estate portfolio worth about $8 million — all within months of the fisherman’s daughter meeting the 73-year-old ex-Patriots coach, according to property records.”
These are headlines from JUST THIS WEEK.
All of this had led to all sorts of questions, like whether Belichick and Hudson actually met on that plane. Or maybe this is all a stunt from Bill’s team to get him fired from UNC because he’s heard an NFL job is waiting for him. And what’s up with all that real estate? There’s plenty of wild speculation out there, thanks to how he and Hudson handled this.
What’s not speculation and instead is pure fact is the reality that the outside view of Bill Belichick, the greatest coach of all time, has been changed forever. “We’re not talking about this” doesn’t just go away. The way he’s allowed this relationship to become such a humongous distraction is a knock on the coach who preached to his players for decades to avoid distractions at all costs.
I’ve said I’d pay real money to see the group text from Bill’s friends talking about this. Now I’d pay the same amount to see what the UNC players are saying. We might never get that, but remember, UNC is a state school and subject to the North Carolina Public Records Act. This means the public “has the right to access most state government records, including those of the UNC system and its individual campuses.”
That includes emails, like the ones that showed Hudson wanted the school to delete social media comments about her relationship with Bill. Local and national reporters will be lined up trying to get those emails, leading to more headlines and even more questions.
I’ve suggested here that one of the reasons that Bill ended up at UNC was that this relationship would be more accepted there than in the NFL. Now it’s fair to wonder if Belichick didn’t land an NFL job because teams knew too much about Hudson and stayed away. If they didn’t know about her then, they sure do now!
Even his friends are concerned. Charles Barkley said Thursday on the Dan Patrick Show, “I might actually reach out to him to make sure everything’s good, but I am concerned from what I’m hearing…It’s not a good look, right, I’ll admit that.”
Barkey knows what I’ve written for a while is true—that this has a real chance to potentially tarnish the legacy of the best football coach of our lifetimes…if it hasn’t already.
On the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby…
I love the Kentucky Derby. I love the hats. I love the outfits. I love the annual texts from people asking, “Who do you like in the Derby???” It’s a great American tradition and the biggest day for horse racing in the United States.
BUT…there does feel like a little bit of a Debry Hangover this year.
Part of that might be all the effort and marketing that went into last year’s 150th Kentucky Derby. Another part is the fact that this year’s big favorite, Journalism, comes in off a campaign in California. West Coast dirt racing has been an afterthought the last few years, especially with trainer Bob Baffert being suspended from running horses in the Derby. Baffert is a star in the sport, and his lightning-white hair and polarizing personality draw attention wherever he goes.
Journalsim is as good as any horse Baffert has trained recently, but his trainer, Michael McCarthy, is virtually unknown to anyone outside of racing. Combine that with a West Coast campaign, a field that did not show much star power this spring, and the big 150 celebration last year, and you have all the makings of a race that is not getting as much attention as usual—certainly not as much as last year.
That being said, there will be over $300 million bet on the Kentucky Derby card Saturday. There is some rain on the forecast, but that will not slow the wagering from dieards and casuals. It’s one of the best betting days of the year, so let’s try to get some of that money! My take on the 2025 Derby Field:
#1 Citizen Bull (20-1) - One of two for trainer Bob Baffert. Some recent workout buzz, but the two-year-old benefited from sweet trips in his best races. He won’t get one from the rail on Saturday. The last rail winner in the Derby was in 1986. Rain could help.
#2 Neoequos (30-1) - Big place player in a race with many other early speeds. Will help ensure they go quick early, and will be a horse we look to bet when he cuts back in distance later this year.
#3 Final Gambit (30-1) - SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox tries the syth to dirt move. He’s 2 for 9 (22%) making this move in graded stakes and 29% overall. Tried this with Botanical in the Oaks, and she finished 13th. Running style says he’ll be coming late. Bottom of tris and supers at an underlayed price - he’s going to be bet down from that 30-1 line, for sure.
#4 Rodriguez (12-1) - Prefer this one of the two Bafferts, but can’t see him working out the trip as a speed in a race full of early speed.
#5 American Promise (30-1) - Got in here thanks to one of the most speed-favoring prep races of the spring. Trainer D Wayne Lukas reportedly said this guy is training “better than any other horse he’s taken to the Derby.” Might upgrade on a wet track. Fringe player at best, but will be a price. I won’t bet him, which means he’s a lock - I never get Lukas right.
#6 Admire Daytona (30-1) - Has early speed, but don’t see him as a factor off his races in Japan.
#7 Luxor Cafe (15-1) - Visually super impressive in his last two, especially the win in the Fukuryu Stakes. I'm not sure what he beat, but he looks to have late push-button speed. Does not like kickback, so look for the rider to get him clear and make one run. Has had success on tracks with moisture and is 2-2 in left-turn races like he gets today. Using under my top pick and as a backup in multis.
#8 Journalism (3-1) - Horse to beat and with good reason. Has a speed edge over this group and should be able to sit off the early pace. He got real experience in that Santa Anita Derby effort, and anyone claiming that was a soft trip is an idiot. Distance should be no issue; maybe the low-profile connections will ensure an okay price, around 5/2. With no Tappan Street in here, he looks like a potential standout against this group.
#9 Burnham Square (12-1) - Very nice bounce-back effort in the Blue Grass. This gelding has a running style that should allow him to be one of the stronger late runners here, and the mile and a quarter will be no issue. Trainer Ian Wilkes has made adjustments along the way, and the training has gone well in Kentucky. A must-use in exotics and a nice exacta partner with your own Derby selection.
#10 Grande (20-1) - There is talent here, yes. But can’t help but think this water is too deep for a horse making just his fourth career start. Fringe player, I probably won’t end up using.
#11 Flying Mowhawk (30-1) - Owned by former MLB’r Jayson Werth, he’s a turf horse running on dirt. Pass.
#12 East Avenue (20-1) - Of the big prices, my silliest idea. Returned in 2025 with a bizarre non-effort in the Risen Star. Trainer Brendan Walsh adds blinkers and the horse responds with a big effort in the Blue Grass, finishing second. Since then, the training reports have been positive. Furthermore, a look at DRF Formulator shows that many times, second-time blinkers are another improvement for Walsh horses. Maybe he tries to gut this field from the bell and runs last - that’s a likely scenario. OR he hangs on for a gutsy third or fourth. OR maybe he can rate off the crazy speed. Either way, at 30-1, I’m going to use in exotics.
#13 Publisher (30-1) - Yes, this maiden will be closing and gets the services of the talented Irad Ortiz. BUT…he benefited from a great set-up last time and has just one race that makes him competitive here. Bottom of tris and supers, only.
#14 Tiztastic (20-1) - See above. I will add that trainer Steve Asmussen seems confident in both of these horses…he’s also never won a Derby. They will need a meltdown plus some others not showing up with their best race for either one to win, but their running styles make them playable on the bottom of tickets.
#15 Render Judgement (30-1) - Owned by the late country music star Toby Keith, this guy would be a great story if he wins. Does have a win over the surface at Churchill, but is short in speed figures. There are some reports that they might take back and make one run with new jockey Julien Leparoux. I could talk myself into using in tris and supers. Trainer says he’s dealing with a foot issue. The horse, not the trainer.
#16 Coal Battle (30-1) - Trainer Lonnie Briley said his horse was “a workout short” when he ran third in the Arkansas Derby. I’ll add that the jockey might have moved early in the race and cost his horse a better placing. Has a bunch of wins but is light on figures. Did beat Sandman two-back, so if you like that one, maybe you like this one, too. Cool story, but you can’t bet them all.
#17 Sandman (6-1) - Has the chance to be the biggest underlay of the race. Got a massive setup last time at Oaklawn. Even in the win, he was veering out late - his trainer says me might not be mentally sharp yet. With that, he’ll have to close from the back of the pack through 19 other horses going a mile and a quarter. Metallica fans, fans of grey horses, and fans of his Social Media Influencer Owner will all be betting on this guy. He can hit the board, but if he wins, I lose.
#18 Sovereignty (5-1) - Two good races this year in Florida. A running style that should suit this race. A win on the track last October, beating a few of these. Hall of Fame trainer in Bill Mott. Gets back to his usual rider in Junior Alvarado. Training well. Wet track would be no issue. Legit player and a win candidate on Saturday. In fact, if he drifts up on price, I could see myself placing a win bet at 8-1 or better.
#19 Chunk of Gold (30-1) - Unlike deep closers Publisher and Tiztastic, he has a few races that put him in the mix here. The problem his he’s had two pretty sweet trips to get qualified for this spot, and it’s hard to envision a clean trip from way back on Saturday. Using under but not as a win player.
#20 Owen Almighty (30-1) - Should not be in this race. Trainer Brian Lynch was overruled by the owners, which happens constantly.
AE #21 Baeza (12-1) - He’s in with the scratch of #4 Rodriguez. Can be midpack, and the $1.2 million purchase should love this distance. Last seen battling the Derby favorite Journalism. Falvien Prat gets the call, and reports have this one working very well for this race. Will be using him, and I view him as a win candidate on Saturday.
Update: So yes, Baeza draws in. Yes, Rodriguez being out slows this pace down on paper, but it probably allows Citizen Bull to fire from the rail now. And Luis Saez on Neoequos signals that one will just go, too. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think this will significantly impact the early pace, since there are so many others who will still be going. Update #2: Rain looks like a lock for Saturday. Boo.
So yeah, I like the favorite Journalism. And there are some ways to make money even if he wins at 3-1.
MutStack Podcast - Handicapping Kentucky Derby 151
Full disclosure - my original pick to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby is not running on Saturday.
If you want a deeper dive on the Derby, Jessica Paquette and Dick Jerardi joined me on the annual MutStack Kentucky Derby Podcast. It’s an easy watch/listen as you’re handicapping or getting ready for the races on Saturday.
I’ll post a special Derby Final Thoughts newsletter on Saturday, including official picks for the Derby card and how I’m betting the Derby, plus weather and track updates.
I’m lucky to be once again hosting the best Kentucky Derby Party in New England at Mohegan Sun. Come by and say hello if you’re making the trip.
On a three-pack of follow-ups to The Sports Hub v. WEEI Winter Ratings…
No one did a deeper dive or had more opinions on the winter ratings than we did last week (can be read here). I did not do my best work editing, so after reading what I wrote, I wanted to follow up on a few things.
As my friend Kirk Minihane pointed out, the comparison of the negativity of Felger and Mazz to Mike and the Mad Dog was pretty dumb. But the reality is F & M are down 25% year-to-year. WEEI is not up anywhere near that, so what’s going on?
Tension on a radio show is good—listeners want tension. F & M have created good tension between themselves and the audience by being almost purposely negative on most Boston sports topics. And that has worked. But there is almost ZERO tension between the hosts on the show. I listen a lot, and most of the time, the three hosts agree on a topic. That can get repetitive for the audience and potentially send them elsewhere.
Mazz is often quick to bail on a take if Felger challenges him. Case in point, I got a text from a Boston media personality commenting on this last week. “Tony says he would have traded up for Abdul Carter…Felger says, incredulously, “You’d have made that Jacksonville deal for Carter? You’d trade next year’s first-rounder?!” Tony could not back down fast enough.”
That happens ALL THE TIME. Mazz sounds scared of Felger. To his credit, Jim Murray sounds much more comfortable standing his ground on an issue. I wonder if that lack of in-show tension among the hosts has led to the significant drop in share from last year to now.If I did not make it clear in the way I wrote it, I thought it was an embarrassing move for WEEI not to pay the $1500 or whatever it would have cost to send Fitzy along with his co-hosts Andy Hart and Ted Johnson to broadcast from the NFL Draft in Green Bay. Fitzy’s done hours of ‘fan on hand’ social media content and would have given the station much more of a bump than two co-hosts cheering each other with beers and broadcasting live from some media center. Not surprisingly, I’m told Fitzy was pretty upset with the decision. Johnson often has to ask a host to repeat their question or comment, and gives you nothing outside of football. But he’s not going anywhere—market manager Mike Thomas is a HUGE Part Time Teddy fan.
The more Fitzy is on remote in his mancave, the more it sounds to this listener like his co-hosts are annoyed by the setup of home broadcasts three days a week. It’s not tenable long-term, and already sounds like Hart and Johnson are icing out Nick.
On your sports media and sports betting notes…
➡️ The forecasted rain on Friday and Saturday is an annoying addition to the handicapping puzzle. My friend ‘The Big A’ Anthony Stabile thinks #11 Good Cheer is a cinch in Friday’s Oaks. She’s 6 for 6 but no standout on speed figures.
With Five G scratched, I like # 7 La Cara to wire this field or sit just off #2 Simply Joking. La Cara comes into this race doing well, and #6 Ballerina d'Oro should come late. 7-6-9-2.
Oaks/Derby Double: One of my favorite bets of the year
A-A Play: 6,7 w/ 8
B-A Play: 2,3,9,14 w/ 8
A-B Play: 6,7 w/ 7,9,12,18,21 (Maybe use Good Cheer here, too. Not going to play 11-8.)
Note: This play may change if track conditions favor a certain running style. Follow along on X.com for updates.
➡️ Appreciate Daily Racing Form committing to more YouTube videos, and the team of David Aragona and Mike Beer did a great job this spring. Hope those two continue as a team into the summer.
➡️ A lot of good promotions on the racing apps this week, with FanDuel Racing and DK Horse both full of strong offers, including Bet Backs on the biggest races. Shop around before placing your bets.
➡️ Media beef! Former WEEI host Alex Reimer confirmed to the Kirk Minihane Show on Thursday that he’s no fan of Barstool Sports’ Jerry Thornton. Reimer claims Thornton tried not-so-subtly to get Alex fired from WEEI. If so, I get Reimer’s shot at Jerry on X.com.
➡️ NESN added to their roster this week, hiring Alanna Rizzo as a full-time reporter and anchor. Rizzo spent time with MLB Network and worked with Mad Dog on his show (via Awful Announcing).
➡️ Currently writing this on Thursday at lunch. Your NESN programming is ‘NESN Rundown - The best segments from today’s NESN podcasts.’ ‘New England Traveler’ comes your way at 1 pm. ‘Travel Moore’ with Anthony Moore is next at 1:30. At 2 pm, ‘Charlie Moore Outdoors.’ And another ‘Charlie Moore Outdoors’ after that at 2:30 pm. The Red Sox's terrible loss from Wednesday will be replayed at 3 pm, before Sox baseball takes you through midnight. Compelling stuff. NESN/The Red Sox have the money and time for more live programming or original production shows. Work with WEEI and air their shows. Why not?
I want to send my condolences to the family of Nick Soares, who passed away suddenly last weekend.
Known to many as Cinema Lords, Nick was a popular guest on the Kirk Minihane Show and a talented podcaster in his own right. Nick was a teammate on the KMS Basketball team I wrote about last summer in this newsletter. I was also lucky enough to join him in the KMS Studios occasionally. Like so many others, I was fortunate to meet Nick through Kirk’s show and universe.
Nick wore cargo shorts and Hawaiian shirts, loved talking movies and Survivor, and had a fucking great laugh. He was constantly laughing and smiling, except when he was ready to fight an opponent to defend a teammate on the basketball court. He loved playing for that team, and we loved having him on our side.
He was just 31 years old. It sucks. And it is unfair. The outpouring of love for Nick through Kirk’s show this week has been incredible.
My thoughts are with his family and friends in this difficult time.
Happy Mutstack Friday and may God welcome Cinema to heaven and provide comfort to his loved ones.
You made a good call on Sovereignty…wish I’d have put a tener on him. Instead I bet Journalism. Ugh. Bring on the Preakness!