Friday Four-Pack 8.23.24

WEEI finally shakes up its lineup. A change for The Rich Shertenlieb Show. A loaded Travers field. Notes!

Here’s your annual reminder that on a bright August morning - where it’s just cool enough that it reminds you football season is almost here - Saratoga Race Course is one of the best places in the world.

Doors open at 7 AM (most days) during the meet and it’s free to watch the horses train. Then you can tour the building while it’s quiet. Saratoga in the Morning is the first thing I suggest when someone asks what to do in Saratoga.

For a Travers Week, it was quiet just after 7 AM on Friday. But by the first post at 12:30 PM, the place will be rocking.

And if my kids keep losing all their bets, you find their dad in line at the ATM machine. They’re down. Bad. And that ridiculous DQ of Camera in Race 7 on Thursday didn’t help matters. Just a a brutal call by the NYRA stewards.

But, there are 12 more races today to make it all back.

We are heavy on sports media and Saratoga this week. We’ll be back to plenty of football - including NFL bets - starting here next week.

We’ll start with the uninspiring but not-so-surprising WEEI news in today’s Four-Pack.

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On the lineup changes at Sports Radio WEEI…

It was not a matter of if, just a matter of when.

For months, WEEI’s programming lineup after 10 AM has been getting decimated in the sports radio demo of M25-54. Not just by rival 98.5 The Sports Hub - but a majority of the radio stations in Boston. Here’s the damage from last spring to this past spring.

Wow.

I mean, look at that year-to-year nosedive. Midday is down 55%. Afternoon drive down 49%. Nights - where the Red Sox can certainly impact things - are down a whopping 74%.

Overall, WEEI saw a 60% rating share drop over the last 18 months.

And look, if you’ve read this column, nothing that was announced Wednesday is a surprise.

Middays:
Andy Gresh and Christian Fauria OUT. Adam Jones and Rich Keefe IN.

We’ve had this one nailed for a while. Audacy Boston market manager Mike Thomas has long pined to get these two back together. They had good numbers together at The Sports Hub. And unlike the Gresh & Fauria pairing, these two have some chemistry. This will be a good show with ball-busting and energy.

Gresh and Fauria did a show Wednesday right before the news was announced. They even had Andy Hart as a guest on the show. I don’t know for sure if the pair knew that Wednesday's show would be their last. If they did, they never tipped their hand.

Gresh has always sounded like he was talking down to me and the rest of the audience. And it was evident when he was not listening to a word his co-host said. I never understood the fit. Fauria was never the same after being taken away from his friend Lou Merloni. He never sounded as into this show as he was with his shows with Lou. But he had a long run there - including launching a major diabetes fundraiser that had become a big deal for Audacy. I thought he would get more of a goodbye. But that’s radio.

RE: Jones & Keefe. It will probably be a better show than whatever the endgame is in the afternoons. I wonder if the goal is to try and carry some of Greg Hill’s audience later into the day by putting this show here. WEEI loses close to 85 or 90% of its share after Greg goes off the air. Jones & Keefe ending up here almost seems strategic. And makes sense.

Afternoons:
Adam Jones, Meghan Ottolini, and producer Ryan Garvin OUT. Andy Hart and Christian Arcand IN…for now.

Jones moves to middays. Mego takes Hart’s spot at the website and as a fill-in host. Mego was put in an impossible spot with Jones. She had to be the voice of reason to his contrived and forced negativity. It was not a good fit. She’ll thrive in a web role for the station before eventually going on to bigger and better things.

Hart gets elevated to afternoon drive.

I never thought I’d read or write that last sentence.

I did hours with Andy on WEEI. Of the Mut at Night “co-hosts,” he was one of the easiest to work with because you could bust balls and not have any tension linger into the breaks off the air. And he’s not afraid to say stupid things. And when you call him stupid, he doesn’t turtle. And he listens. But his best ratings came with me - at night! Now he’s moving to a brand new show against the monster that is Felger and Mazz. What a wild turn of events.

As for Christian Arcand and the “WEEI Afternoon Show,” well, I think this is a placeholder show. I think he is its placeholder host.

I’m not 100% sure who they are waiting for, but I don’t believe Arcand is the long-term host of that show. And I can tell you multiple people who work for Audacy Boston feel the same way. I talked to them.

Even the name of the show - “WEEI Afternoon Show” - can’t be serious long-term.

I believe eventually, Arcand ends up a night. He’s a good solo host. And then someone else hosts with Andy Hart. I don’t have a clear sense of who that person is. Based on some of the rumors, it won’t really matter in the ratings. But the current show will not be the actual afternoon show in a few weeks. Or days. We’ll see.

Producer Ryan Garvin - who’s been an afternoon drive producer since Ordway, Merloni and Fauria - also exits. It was his own decision to leave Audacy Boston.

Nights:
Rich Keefe out. No one is officially IN.

See above. Eventually, I think it will be Arcand, so I’m not surprised WEEI didn’t name a host now. Keefe’s numbers were bad at night but his chemistry with Jones gets him back into a midday slot. Again, it will be a good show. Keefe will battle with Jones. It will make Jones more likable.

Some other assorted thoughts -

Alex nails it here. Ken Laird can be blamed for the lack of ANY weekend or bench development at WEEI over the last 24 months, but Mike Thomas makes the decisions: and his decisions have created multiple shows that the Boston radio audience has summarily rejected for two years.

This story from less than a month ago on Thomas from Barrett Sports Media titled, “Mike Thomas Enjoys Stability Amidst Boston Radio Changes,” is worth a re-read after the news Wednesday. 🙄🙄🙄

• The station is going to save a bunch of money. One smart radio person told me that financials are “100% what's driving” the moves. The ratings can’t get worse in those dayparts, so I guess you might as well save some money.

• In the WEEI building, there is some positive response to the Jones & Keefe pairing. But that seems to be outweighed by the lingering questions about the plans for afternoon drive and nights.

• Radio press releases are funny: “These exciting updates bring together a dynamic mix of talent with New England roots that will continue to deliver top-tier content to Boston’s biggest sports fans,” Mike Thomas, Senior Vice President and Market Manager for Audacy Boston, said in a statement “Adam Jones and Rich Keefe’s notable on-air styles and rapport will energize our midday show, while Andy Hart and Christian Arcand’s experience will help bolster afternoon drive. We’re looking forward to this next chapter of WEEI weekdays continuing to make WEEI the go-to destination for everything Boston sports.”

• Jason Wolfe once alluded to me as the “Dustin Pedroia of WEEI” when Mut and Merloni was launched, so the above is not the most insane radio press release ever.

• There’s like a 1% chance Audacy reaches out to Glenn Ordway, right? I’ve not heard that, just spit-balling.

• If they had any money, I’d think former Sports Hub host and current Sirius /XM host Damon Amendoloara would be on the shortlist. Again, have heard nothing on him, either.

• Mike Giardi is good friends with Andy Hart and is a full-time radio free agent.

• None of these will happen, but it’s fun to wonder.

Given the ratings, these moves actually make some sense…but why did it take so long to get here? Why not pair Jones and Keefe 18 months ago?

These are not moves that will prompt any big response from 98.5 The Sports Hub. Let’s see if the Boston sports radio audience finally responds to a new show on WEEI.

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On another ‘sports radio’ change in Boston…

If we’re gonna take a victory lap for getting the WEEI stuff right for months, we’ll have to the ‘L’ on this one.

I really thought The Rich Shertenlieb Show was a test run for 100.7 WZLX to potentially go all sports and create a new rival to WEEI and The Sports Hub. I had even heard they were trying to get the radio rights to a local team to jump-start the process.

Then this past Tuesday at 8:23 AM, The Rich Shertenlieb Show played a full Foo Fighters song before a short segment on going to a Pearl Jam concert and then eventually into a commercial break. It was the second straight day I heard a full song on the talk show. Monday was a “Rich Rewind” show, with co-hosts Kenny Young and Michael Hurley playing a sort of best-of with songs in between. I figured it was just because Rich was out - and even that was weird. Just let Hurley and Young do a show.

Hearing it again on Tuesday, I texted former Boston.com Radio Show and Kirk Minihane Show producer Dave Cullinane that Rich’s show was playing more music - we had commented on it off the air Monday on Kirk’s show. Dave’s response to news being played on the show as perfect -

“And with it, the third sports talker dream died.”

The death was confirmed by WZLX program director Chris Tyler, who responded to an inquiry from MutStack.com about music being played on the show - would that continue going forward?

“Yes it will. Thanks for listening!” Tyler responded.

You might be saying -

“MUT WHO CARES IF THEY’RE PLAYING MUSIC THIS IS STUPID!”

If you thought there was a chance that WZLX might eventually go all sports, it’s a big deal. This is the opposite of that idea. This is turning a sports talk show into a rock music morning show.

And I get it. On the same day WEEI announced their lineup changes, Beasley Media announced that Rock 92.9 would flip to Bloomberg Radio. That leaves a void for rock fans - who will likely end up over on WZLX.

Shertenlieb’s show has not gained much traction since its launch, lingering around 10th in the market for M25-54. I thought those numbers would be better. It appears WZLX management might have felt the same.

Mike Felger and Jim Murray had recently wondered on their “Off Air Show” if WZLX might go all sports. Again, I had heard and thought the same thing when Rich landed there.

But more music and another rock station flipping formats ends that conversation for now.

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On the 2024 Travers Stakes…

On paper, it’s simply the most competitive Travers of my racing lifetime. The most anticipated Travers of my racing lifetime. And I’ve been to every Travers since 2003. We don’t count the covid year. I still came to Saratoga that year, but we just bet from the house with no fans allowed.

Let’s walk the field for the most anticipated race of the summer.

#1 Thorpedo Anna (3-1)
Trainer Ken McPeek deserves a lot of credit for how he’s handled Anna this summer. Crushes in the Oaks early in the meet, and then he makes her daily workouts a public event. And her fans showed up to watch her at 5:30 AM! Then they bypass the Alabama for the Travers, making both races better betting races. And it gives her a shot to become the first filly to win the Travers since 1915. She is a very good horse and a legit win contender on Saturday- but the price will not match her chances to win. The public loves her enough she might be the favorite. This is the toughest field she’s ever faced and those low odds won’t match up with her actual chances to win.

#2 Sierra Leone (7/2)
It’s now or never for this guy. Thought he would blow right past Fierceness in the Jim Dandy, but once again he comes up just short. He gets a fast pace to run at again in the Travers, and now Chad Brown has had time to figure out how to keep him focused in the lane. Flavien Prat had choices and ended up here. I wish this race was a mile and a half, but he gets a sweet set-up today. A legit win contender and my pick at anywhere near his 7-2 morning line.

#3 Unmatched Wisdom (8-1)
The other Chad Brown has been a pretty powerful betting angle over the years. In this case, the other Chad has looked like a good thing since his debut in May. He’s fast enough early so sit off the leaders and get a good trip. Maybe Irad takes him to the front? The third-place finisher in that Curlin win, Timeout, came back to run about the same Beyer next time. Board hit possibility for this now. And might get lost in the betting. Interesting.

#4 Corporate Power (15-1)
Another part of the good ‘second tier’ in this Travers. Ran a career-best Beyer off the layoff when he ran second to Unmatched Wisdom. He actually made a run at that one late, but could not get there. Had a pretty good trip in there. If you like him, you’re projecting a move forward second off the layoff. And you’ll need a few of the top ones to run below their best. Not impossible, but not betting on it.

#5 Batten Down (20-1)
Third but never really close late in the Jim Dandy. Did break his maiden at Churchill going a mile and a quarter - but that was on an easy lead against maidens. Three straight 93 Beyers and I'm not sure why he moves forward Saturday against this group.

#6 Honor Marie (20-1)
This one will be coming late for sure: I just don’t know if he’s good enough. He’s trying blinkers today after the fourth-place Belmont finish. ‘Blinkers on’ has not been a good move for trainer Whit Beckman - on the dirt over the last five years, 0 for 9 and NONE of those nine have hit the board. Pass for me on anything besides the very bottom of exotic tickets.

#7 Dornoch (5/2)
I have never given this one enough respect. Hell, I thought he might be a rabbit for Catching Freedom in the Derby! But he had real trouble in there and all he’s done since is win the Belmont and Haskell. Has not skipped a beat in morning workouts and has a legit shot in here. The outside post gives him options to either send from there if Anna and Fierceness don’t go or potentially sit off those two. Speed is dangerous at this Saratoga trip and a repeat of his Haskell win puts him squarely in the mix.

#8 Fierceness (3-1)
When he gets his own way early - Jim Dandy, Florida Derby - he can run huge. But what if he has to battle with one or both of the other speeds early? The last time he pressed and finished was with a slow pace in the BC Juvenile. We’ve seen some ‘no pace’ races this summer at the Spa, but hard to imagine that here. I don’t like the post for him as much as others do. If you’re taking 3-1, you believe he can rate OR he can run them off their feet from the gate. I’m not convinced of either and will have a tough time taking that type of price on my Derby pick.

I’ll write about how I plan to bet the race tomorrow in the Saratoga Stack, but I asked some MutStack Friends who they liked in the 2024 Mid Summer Derby

Jessica Paquette - Voice of racing at Parx and Saratoga Special Handicapper

I am excited about the possibility of seeing some of these stars in the Pennsylvania Derby and I will admit, I have given in to the hype around the filly Thorpedo Anna. If she was a colt, she would be the favorite and she is exactly the physical kind of filly that I like to see square off against the boys. I also like Batten Down as a horse with a serious pedigree getting better and better as he matures.

Dick Jerardi - Veteran horseplayer and contest player; former sports and race writer

Off final workouts, I have to like Thorpedo Anna who was crying to run in her final work. Her figures may be a cut below, but chance she gets a dream rail trip behind several potentially dueling speed horses. Thought Sierra Leone’s final work was really good and he may finally be getting the right pace setup. Never remember any horse winning three graded stakes by coming again in the stretch like Dornoch. Definite contender. Need to see Fierceness run two good ones in a row. Will try to get him off the ticket here.

Brad Bryant - Sports and racebook manager at Mohegan Sun

Outstanding Travers Field.  I’m sticking with my Derby/Belmont Selection, #6 Honor Marie at 20/1.  Adds Blinkers - which has returned a $6.65 ROI - and may just be what Marie needs.  Not sure why Marie continues to walk out of the gate in each start but adding blinkers and Gaffallone should help tremendously.

Mike Vesce - Clocker for the Daily Racing Form/Klaravich Stables Advisor/Boston sports fanatic

I’m obviously biased with #3 Unmatched Wisdom as Chad and I picked this horse out at the sale. Has an incredibly long stride and high cruising speed. Will sit the perfect trip right behind Anna, Dornoch, and Fierceness. Irad pushes the button at the 5/16ths, gets the first jump, and wins the race. 

#2 Sierra Leone had a good pace setup in his last four races and is 1 for 4 in those. Thought the Jim Dandy was actually his best race and is on the improve. He's working incredibly well, should get a good pace setup again and the distance is in his wheelhouse. Should be right there at the wire. 

#8 Fierceness is the fastest horse in the race but not sure he wants 1 1/4 miles, especially when projected to be part of a lively pace with two other horses from the outside post. He could freak and win but mostly going to use as a light backup on picks and underneath in the exotics. 

#1 Thorpedo Anna hasn't run a speed figure close to any of the colt races. Fillies generally have a tough time getting 1 1/4 miles. She's been a bit of a runoff in the AM's and should contribute to a lively early pace. Toss.

Awesome race and a terrific card at Saratoga.

Portnoy, Elio, Big Cat, and other Barstool personalities will be live-streaming near the paddock throughout the day. They have been promoting the DraftKings ADW, DK Horse, all summer. It’s been fun to watch.

I’m scheduled to join them at some point, hopefully with some winners but certainly wearing my best Milton’s summer jacket.

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On your Friday MutStack Notes…

• Not a huge milestone by any means, but a quick thank you to everyone who has subscribed to this sports/sports media/sports betting/horse racing/my dad’s garden protection newsletter over the last 18 months.

  We passed 4000 subscribers here this week - thanks in part to the late push from the Kirk Minihane Show after my appearance there on Monday. And then Dave Portnoy calling me boring on X.com a few days later.

  
  Thanks to all who have subscribed, shared, and commented over the last 18 months or so. Even those who skim or just mark the email as “read” when it arrives in their mailbox. I appreciate you all. Thank you!!!

• If you read this newsletter, there’s a chance you're into sports media. The voice of BC Football and my former WEEI teammate Jon Meterparel is joining Andrew Marchand for a weekly podcast called Everybody Loves Sports Media. And he’s hosting it here on Substack. Meter is the BIGGEST sports media gossiper I know, so it should be good.

• I’ve written a lot about the bleak future of horse racing in Massachusetts, but here is a real history there. The Patriot Ledger re-ran a story from a few years ago about racing at the Marshfield Fair. If you’re a racing fan, it’s a great read. And a reminder of a time when horse racing had a real place in The Bay State.

• Audacy’s sports betting arm, BetQL, announced its new lineup this morning. Femi Abebefe is set to be the new co-host with Nick Kostos on You Better, You Bet, with Ken Barley moving on last week. Sam Panayotovich, who had been a host on NESN’s betting show, will join as the host of their midday show with Joe Ostrowski.

• Excited for this Monday when a new project I’ve been working on and will be a part of will be announced. Should make for a fun football season!
  

And with that, we have indeed said it all.

Back at it tomorrow to handicap the marathon Travers card. Hope to have that posted around 11 AM. Make sure you’re subscribed to get it mailed to you. And if you see me at the ATM machine, come say hello.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend. And thanks for reading.

Good weekend.