Friday Four-Pack 9.19.25

A note from new owner Dave Portnoy. The Red Sox are slumping. A big horse race this weekend. Week 3 NFL Picks and MutStack notes!

Editor’s Note from new Editor/Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy

There has been lots of discussion about freedom of speech, censorship, and cancel culture over the last 24-48 hours. Well, as the sole owner of MutStack.com, I pledge to you that during the Portnoy Regime, there will never be any MutStack censorship from the powers above. Mut will be allowed to be his authentically boring self at all times, regardless of how mediocre and bland his takes may get.

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This is one of the reasons I begged pitched Dave for a job (belatedly) with Barstool last week on Unnamed.

Want to disagree with the owner of the company over his take on Jimmy Kimmel? Go for it, Kirk.

Want to tell the world you spent “60 to 70k” on bar tabs your senior year of college? The mic is yours.

Want to write a weekly newsletter that talks about baseball and horse racing, and occasionally Boston sports radio ratings and gossip? Knock yourself out.

Dave’s right - I can be boring. But I thought I had a pretty good first week at Barstool.

Gave my boss a winning bet ✅
Had a record day for this newsletter last Friday (thanks, Dave) ✅
Became the first Barstool blogger to start reading his blogs to his audience on Twitter ✅ Based on the views, people seemed to like that.
Did not go on a competing network show while Wake Up Barstool was live ✅
Went 3-1 on Thursday Night Football on my first Picks Central spot ✅

Not bad, but it was not perfect.

My dad, The Viking, was not happy with the F-bombs last week on Unnamed. I can probably count on two hands the times I’ve heard my dad swear in my life, and it’s mostly been since he took up golf at age 50. I asked my brother if he remembered Dad swearing in our house growing up. “Never,” was his instant response.

I don’t have the heart to tell him that, yes, I swear, a lot. And his youngest grandson now swears like a sailor around the house, with your humble newsletter author to blame. Sorry, Dad.

I don’t think Dave cares if I swear. He seems to let me and the rest of his employees be ourselves and create content the best we can. For me, that means writing here weekly, doing semi-daily blogs and videos, appearing on KMS, doing horse racing and sports betting content…but what else? What else can I do and create that’s different at Barstool? I’ve thought about this question for hours since being verbally hired last week.

Being given a blank slate is a gift…if you take advantage of it. I have some ideas, and hopefully I’m able to execute. It’s good to know that the new owner of MutStack.com will not be censoring any of those thoughts and ideas here, no matter how boring they might be.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are slumping. We try to stay hot with the NFL Picks. A big horse race on Saturday and a full MutStack notes.

All ahead in this week’s Four-Pack.

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You heard Dave, I can be as dull as I want.

Hit that subscribe button!

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On the suddenly slumping Red Sox…

Let’s start here. That line above is from September 2. The number that’s in the second-to-last column from the right - 98.2% - represented the chances the Red Sox would be a playoff team. Again, as of September 2.

Now this is the number, updated today, September 19. Once a virtual lock for the playoffs, FanGraphs now gives Boston an 82.6% chance of making the postseason.

They’re playing some pretty shitty baseball and just went 2-4 on a homestand where they really should have gone 4-2.

WEEI’s Adam Jones was first with the take that if the Red Sox miss the playoffs, manager Alex Cora should be gone. The topic is picking up steam, with NBC Sports Boston dedicating time to it on Thursday night. I suspect it will be the driving topic on Boston sports radio on Friday. Jones and anyone else blaming the manager have the wrong target.

It should be Craig Breslow.

It was Breslow who traded their best hitter to the Giants and got nothing of use in return. Rather than maximize the return for the player, he sent him to the one team willing to eat all of Devers’ salary. Blame ownership some, but that’s on Breslow for not explaining you don’t just GIVE AWAY Rafael Devers.

It was Breslow who bothched the call-ups of Roman Anthony and Marcelo Meyer. Both guys got called up and were asked to play the same day, something Cora has tried to avoid for years.

“I’m assuming both, since (Meyer and Anthony) got called up after injuries. They just happened to need them right away, but it more so illustrates that they never had a real plan. They were just waiting for injuries to solve their roster problems for them,” Jared Carrabis told me back in June. He’s not wrong - Breslow had no plan.

Eventually, the plan was to rely heavily on the elite young bat of Anthony. Well, he got hurt, and the offense stalled out. Remember what Cora said in spring training? “Rookies come here to contribute; rookies don’t come here to carry teams.”

When Breslow had the chance to add the desperately needed No. 2 pitcher at the trade deadline, he waited until the last second and made a reportedly pathetic offer for the Twins’ Joe Ryan. He ended up with Dustin May, he of the 1-4 record and 5.40 ERA with the Sox. He’s on the IL and likely done for the season.

Cora has seen the team trade its best hitter, fail to make a real addition at the trade deadline, and put all the pressure on a rookie to carry the offense.

"Thanks, Bres, you f--king stiff"

How is the manager getting all the blame? He’s not the best in-game tactician, but his President of Baseball Ops failed him and the team miserably with these moves. Breslow was the team's 10th or 11th choice for the job, and now reports say he wants to hire a GM in the offseason - his own fall guy. Will Breslow blame the new GM when Alex Bregman walks away this offseason? Because that feels like a lock.

If the Sox choke away a playoff spot and someone has to go, it should be Breslow. He should be the fall guy, not the manager who has been stuck dealing with the mistakes of Baseball Ops all season.

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On your MutStack Week 3 NFL Picks…

Week 2 Results: 2-1 | ATD Caleb Williams ❌
On the Season: 2-4 | ATD bets 1 for 2

The Pats’ line never made sense, and hopefully, people jumped in on either the side or the money line. Was against the sharps and on the UNDER Bills/Jets, and that worked out - the Fields injury probably helped me.

Favorites have ruled through two weeks, with faves of 4+ points a perfect 12-0 on the year. So of course, we’re taking a bad team with the points this week. Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday morning. #dkpartner 👑

The Side
JETS + 7 AT THE BUCS (-115, DK)
If you look back through the MutStack Achieves, I love to bet on Tyrod Taylor. He seems to step in and be a more than adequate backup - especially when it comes to covering the spread.

Overall ATS Record: 33-21-4 (61.1% cover rate)
As an Underdog: 21-12-3 (64.3% cover rate)

The Jets are not very good, but the Bucs come into the game banged up and on a short week, having played on Monday night. They lost another OL (Luke Goedeke) and might not have Tristan Wirfs. Plus, Baker is banged up. Holding my nose and playing the Jets.

The Total
BEARS AT COWBOYS OVER 50.5 (-108, DK)
This one fits on a couple of angles I like for totals.
1. Pace. From FTN’s Pace Numbers thru two weeks, Dallas and Chicago are operating at the 4th and 6th fastest sec/snap rates in the league. Both teams want to play fast, and that’s good for overs.
2. Bad Defense. Both teams are in the bottom four in the league in defense per DVOA, with the Bears checking in dead last. We saw what Russ did to the Dallas defense, and Dallas has allowed the most 20+ yard completions this season.

Points should not be hard to come by here, I’m playing the OVER.

The Prop
CARSON WENTZ OVER 1.5 TD PASSES (+160, DK)
Kevin O’Connell is the QB whisperer. Wentz has not played with this much talent on offense in a long time. Vikings RB Aaron Jones is out, and Jordan Mason will get a bulk of the carries. I’ll be playing Mason in DraftKings DFS lineups, but my guess is that the Bengals will try to make Wentz beat them. Cincinnati has already allowed four passing TDs this season. Cinci secondary is banged up, too.

The ATD (2-1 or longer)
ADAM THIELEN (+475) 👑

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On Saturday’s Grade I Pennsylvania Derby…

Here is the list of the Top Three-Year-Old horses in 2025:

1. Sovereignty

2. Journalism

3. Everyone else

So, when the top pair doesn’t show up in the final Grade 1 of the season for 3-year-olds, you’re going to get a competitive bunch. And we have that this weekend in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby.

Shoutout to DraftKings for making this race the DK Horse Race of the Day.

Looking forward to being on track at Parx Friday and Saturday. Let’s take a look at the field with morning-line odds.

#1 So Sandy (15-1) - This guy ran pretty well to get beat in the last jump by Chancer McPatrick in the Jim Dandy. Was posted wide and had a weird trip - dropped back a few spots into the far turn before getting going late. Skipped the Travers for this spot and, with some improvement, could hit the board at a decent price.

#2 Altobelli (50-1) - No chance, but might have enough early speed to affect the pace for horses like Magnitude.

#3 Magnitude (6-1) - Was supposed to be a challenger to Sovereignty in the Travers and promptly finished 20+ lengths back. Didn’t see a lot of fight from this guy into the turn, even with the lead. I guess there’s a scenario where he just goes to the front and never looks back, especially on a Parx surface that can be kind to speed. But I never bought his Risen Star effort, and I’m not really excited to bet him here.

#4 David of Athens (12-1) - The lightly-raced colt is one of two for trainer Brendan Walsh. Strong debut last year, beating Patch Adams and Camp Hale. Beat two next-out winners last time, including a horse that came back to run a 92 Beyer, improving 23 points. Reportedly training well for this, Walsh enters this guy even with his other horse, the talented Gosger, in the field. Interesting.

#5 Happily Delusional (30-1) - This guy has one career win and has struggled in every stakes race he’s tried. Pass.

#6 Goal Oriented (5/2) - Really has not run a bad race, considering the bumping he took in the Preakness. Can be involved from the bell, and the distance should be no issue. Trainer Bob Baffert tried the same Haskell - PA Derby route for Tabia and that guy won this race. BUT, he also had three career triple-digit Beyers. This guy has one. Irad riding is a plus, but also guarantees he’ll be overbet—a contender at a bad price.

#7 Big Truzz (10-1) - The one time this guy tried two turns, he got dusted by Tip Top Thomas (who I would have liked in this spot today). He’s a sprinter - and for that reason, I’m out…until he cuts back next time.

#8 Baeza (2-1) - There’s no doubt that Sovereignty is the best horse of this crop, and Baeza gave him a battle last time at Saratoga. Has done nothing wrong since April, and his third in the Derby remains one of the better efforts by a three-year-old in 2025. I expect him to be involved from the bell and sit in the second flight behind the speeds. No Sovereignty or Journalism today makes him the one to beat.

#9 Gosger (4-1) - Parx racecaller Jessica Paquette has liked this guy going back to April. Ran huge behind Journalism in the Preakness and backed that race up in the Haskell. Like Goal Oriented, has been pointed here, but should it give us pause that the trainer entered a second horse in here? Legit player with a good jockey, and it would be no surprise. And that 4-1 ML is very bettable.

#10 Mo Plex (12-1) - This consistent son of Complexity has hit the board in seven of his nine career starts. He’s won sprinting, and he’s won going today’s mile and an eighth distance. My opinion is his stumble at the start in the Jim Dandy didn’t cost him the race, but it did seem to panic jockey Manny Franco into getting to the front - at least that’s how I viewed it. If he can rate and not get too wide early, this guy is a player in all three top spots.

Fun field. And I hate doing it, but I’ll tab Baeza on top. The trainer seems very confident, and I love the fight he showed last time at Saratoga. 2-1 would be fair on top.

Mo Plex is the price horse I’ll try to get into the mix. I think the stumble last time had an impact, and like the move back to the winning jockey from the Ohio Derby.

Gosger is logical for a top 3 placing. So Sandy might be a big overlay.

I’ll try to make money in the verticals by tossing Magnitude and only using Goal Oriented defensively.

8-10-9-1 in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby. More picks tomorrow on Twitter.

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On your weekly MutStack Notes…

I’d wear that jacket in 2025

🏈 Finally, Bill Parcells will be inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame this weekend. Parcells’ hiring brought immediate respectability back to a franchise that was, at that time, a laughingstock. He made the right call in tabbing Drew Bledsoe over Rick Mirer when the team held the No. 1 pick in the 1993 NFL Draft. And by bringing Bill Belichick here after Cleveland/Baltimore cast him off, he opened the door for Bill to coach the Patriots eventually. During his tenure, the Pats drafted Bledsoe, Willie McGinest, Ty Law, Curtis Martin, Tedy Bruschi, Lawyer Milloy, Chris Slade, and Terry Glenn.

I loved Bill Parcells - the coach and the horse owner. Any Patriots fan who does not think The Tuna deserves a Red Jacket and a spot in the team’s Hall of Fame is an idiot. Respectively. Glad to see him get his day (with Julian Edelman) this weekend.

🏈 I’m officially giving it a 4.5% chance that Belichick will give the Krafts a video to play for either Parcells or Edelman on Saturday. There’s a slightly higher chance (9.4%) that he will post a message on his own social media and send it to the coach and the wide receiver that way.

➡️ So, yeah, I started blogging for Barstool this week. This newsletter was started almost three years ago, just as that - a weekly newsletter. It’s not a blog, even though it’s been referred to as one by others (and myself at times). And it will stay that…well, as long as Dave says so, he’s the boss.

I love the ability to quick-hit some topics during the week, like how bad the ESPN Red Sox doc looks. You can find my blog entries for Barstool here.

➡️ Normally, when I report on Boston sports radio ratings, I have the numbers from at least two sources. Let me say upfront - both of these notes come from one source. It’s actually a different source in both cases, but I trust them in both instances.

🎙️ In the August monthly, which would have been July 24-August 20, Classic Rock WZLX beat Felger and Mazz on 98.5 The Sports Hub. It was close, but I’m told it was a monthly win for WZLX over The Sports Hub 2-6 PM, the first in at least six or seven years.

As I reported a few months ago, ratings for Felger and Mazz (among Men25-54) were down almost 35% year-to-year from Spring 2024 to Spring 2025. This monthly loss marks the continuation of the downward trend.

Based on ratings, Felger and Mazz are as vulnerable as they’ve ever been.

🎙️ Except they don’t have any competition from rival Sports Radio WEEI. This one is hard to believe, but I’m told that during the first week of September (August 21-27), WEEI Afternoons banked a 1.2 rating. One. Point. Two.

As one radio insider texted me this week, “…what does surprise me is that WEEI, having seen the downward trend (of Felger and Mazz), didn’t make changes before the fall book, because even if they go up a little in the fall because of Red Sox and Pats it’s going down to that low level by December and they will have a disaterous winter book…”

100%. I expected change and couldn’t believe WEEI stood pat.

No one else is reporting on these things, so I’ll continue to work on it into the all-important Fall Book.

And with that, we have indeed said it all.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend. If you’re at Parx, come say hello. It should be a great weekend. Thanks to Dave for letting me honor my commitment to Parx, and I hope to see a ton of Stoolies trackside.

And thanks for reading.