Friday Four-Pack 9.27.24

Don't rush Drake Maye. Apathy in Red Sox Nation. NFL Week 4 Picks. Media notes!

Picture via Red Sox Twitter

Yes, right smack-dab in the middle of football season, I am once again opening this newsletter writing about the Boston Red Sox.

Last week we had Jared Carrabis reacting to another season that was likely to end with the Sox on the outside looking in of the MLB Playoffs - a playoff format in which it is easier than ever to qualify with three division winners and three wild card teams.

The team was officially eliminated from the postseason this week, making it five of the last six seasons that one of baseball’s most revered franchises did not make the playoffs.

So why - again in the middle of the glorious NFL season - start this week with the Red Sox?

Because I find the whole thing so ridiculous.

I guess I should not be all that surprised. Going back to last fall when reportedly close to a dozen baseball executives said “thanks but no thanks” to even sitting down for an interview with the team for the position vacated by the departure of Chaim Bloom. I mean THE BOSTON RED SOX could not find someone to take Bloom’s job. That was/is an ominous sign.

When the team eventually hired a friend of Theo Epstein, in the form of Craig Breslow, it signaled a slow burn to build the team into any sort of real contention.

Year One of the Breslow Era had its moments. He and the team got Alex Cora’s deal done. Jarren Duran emerged as a legit star. You might have some actual middle-of-the-rotation pitching talent. Again, some good. But come Tuesday, the team will not be one of the three wild cards in the AL. Tigers, yes. Sox, no.

They were not close in their own division, where they’ll finish between 13 and 16 games back in the AL East and in no better than third place.

Enter annoying quote No. 1 from Breslow this week.

“We have seen the ability to be competitive in the A.L. East with a young group that’s really exciting, really dynamic,” Breslow explained to the Globe’s Alex Speier. “We’ve got to figure out what the right pieces are to add to that. I think it’s likely some of that comes via trade, because there’s only so many middle infielders and left-handed hitting outfielders we can play at any given time.”

2024 Record vs AL East (24-25)
+3 Run differential
vs. Baltimore 5-8
vs. NYY 6-7
vs. TB 5-5 (3 games this weekend)
vs. TOR 8-5

One game under .500 with three to play and a plus-three run differential: that’s stretching the definition of the word competitive. Especially when you consider how far back they’ll actually finish. You were competitive for a Wild Card, sure. The AL East…not really.

Breslow mentions adding the right pieces to this competitive bunch. So how about spending on free agents?

“Those conversations are always ongoing,” Breslow said, per The Athletic. “I feel like when opportunities to improve our team exist — and we should be aggressive in trying to find those opportunities — we take them to ownership. I think we’re going to have the support to do that. But, it’s kind of premature right now to say exactly what that will look like outside of everyone in this organization is excited about what we believe is going on and happening here.”

I’d like to kill ownership for this quote, but they’re still in hiding. And honestly, after Tom Werner’s “full throttle” bullshit back in January, I can’t take them seriously anyway.

But yeah, this quote stinks. They’re outside the Top 10 in MLB payroll and started the season $20 million under the luxury tax threshold. As I said with Carrabis here last week, I have no faith they’ll spend. And this quote does not help.

Beyond Werner’s “full throttle” gaffe, Sam Kennedy’s constant stream of meaningless PR spin, and the wildly average season on the field, the team’s use of Fenway Park as a tourist attraction to Sox fans and the fans of opposing teams bothered me all season.

There were nights - the Phillies series comes to mind - when the visiting fans weren’t just louder than Red Sox fans, but also outnumbered them. By neglecting the team and in the process the fanbase, Sox ownership somehow turned one of the best home-field advantages in baseball into a place where opposing fans overpower the home crowd.

The team is to blame for that, not the fanbase.

Red Sox ownership/management allowed one of the most rabid baseball fanbases in the world to become apathetic, thanks to their own apathy when it comes to the high-level success of their baseball team.

I sense that same apathy now for the team heading into the offseason. Like, Carrabis cares. Our guy RedSox Stats cares. But many Sox fans have decided to move on. They don’t get angry anymore when the team doesn’t spend or is not competitive for World Series championships - they just don’t care.

I can’t believe we’re in this spot with the Boston Red Sox - they’re an afterthought to the Patriots and Celtics heading into October. I still care - enough to lead with baseball during King Football season. But I fear I’m in the minority.

The MLB Playoffs start Tuesday. The Local 9 won’t be involved. It won’t be a big deal to most fans in Boston…which is a big deal in itself.

Meanwhile, I’m for sure in the minority RE: Drake Maye. Sports media and sports betting notebook. Plus NFL Week 4 picks to tail or toss!

All in this week’s Four-Pack.

---

Join Mut Live at Mohegan Sun!

Get real-time analysis and expert predictions from Mut, Eytan Shander, and special guests live from the Mohegan Sun FanDuel Sportsbook.

Be there in-person, stream it on the OddsShopper YouTube page, or listen on your favorite podcast app.

---

On why it’s not quite time for Drake Maye…

As the leader of the #MoreMaye movement, I’m going to surprise some people here: I don’t want Drake Maye to play anytime soon.

Feel free to use this as a crib sheet when you’re bombarded by the “YOU GOTTA PLAY MAYYYYYYE” people this weekend as the 49ers trounce the Patriots.

1. He’s not Jayden Daniels.
   I get it, I wanted Daniels, too. If you want to complain about the Patriots and Bill Belichick winning meaningless games last year that cost them a chance at the No. 2 pick, I’m with you. But you can’t get caught up in Daniels’ big Monday night performance. The rookie started 55 games in college between Arizona State and LSU. Maye started half that many games at UNC (26) and came into the NFL with the asterisk that he might not be able to take snaps under center since, ya know, he didn’t do it much in college. Daniels is ahead of Maye in terms if development and college seasonsing. Just because the No. 2 pick flashed in primetime doesn’t mean you have to go play the No. 3 pick.

2. The Talent Around Him

   Brandon Thorn is an Offensive/Defensive Line analyst who runs the Trench Warfare Newsletter focused exclusively on OL/DL scouting and analysis. I hate OL talk. He lives for it. In his latest OL rankings for Establish The Run, Thorn has the Patriot’s OL #32 - dead last. There is no reason to play an unseasoned rookie behind the league’s worst OL. The Jets racked up seven sacks on 33 Patriots dropbacks a week ago. Just this week, Thorn wrote, “The Patriots have some imposing run blockers but are lacking serviceable pass protectors at multiple positions when fully healthy..” Oh yeah, they’re not fully healthy. With a terrible OL and no No. 1 receiver, this is not the time to play Drake Maye.

3. The season is going nowhere
   Look, Maye is going to play. But they’re a 3 to 5-win team with or without him starting. It’s not like you’re going to him so you can make a playoff run or something. Take your time and play him once your OL is as healthy as it can be. Better yet, go make a trade to boost that unit and make life easier for Maye. There’s part of me that hopes they win Sunday in San Fran so the team doesn’t feel like they have to force Maye in next week against Miami. Reading the tea leaves of the beat reporters this week, it sure does sound like Maye is in play for that game if they lose this week.

We ALL want to see the kid play. But the team still is not ready for him, even if he’s getting closer to being ready for them.

---

Kowloon's Legacy Lives On: 9 Dragons Opens at The Brook

Inspired by the vibrant Kowloon district in Hong Kong, 9 Dragons, a new collaboration between The Brook and the legendary Kowloon restaurant, promises an exciting blend of classic Kowloon favorites and innovative new dishes.

Located at The Brook, a casino-entertainment destination in New Hampshire, just over the Massachusetts border, 9 Dragons offers multiple dining areas, exclusive private event space, and the elevated cocktail lounge, Forbidden City, featuring signature cocktails and top DJ talent.

Click HERE for more information on 9 Dragons

---

On your sports media and sports betting notes…

…I’m just going to keep posting these every week until someone in racing with a much bigger voice than me takes the baton and fights for change. Tuesday night at Assiniboia Downs, the #1 horse was 21-1 going into the gate and then 4.5-1 coming out. Of course, the horse won. Yes, this is a small track. Yes, you can get a better sense of a horse’s price by looking at Daily Double will-plays, but tell that to someone at the track for the first time. This is an easy fix - follow the NYRA approach and stop allowing the CAW (Computer-assisted wagering) groups bet in the win pool once you get to 2 Minutes To Post. Simple. This is embarrassing for the sport and happens at least once a week - tracks big and small. And I will keep highlighting it here.

…Wishing Joe Castiglione a great weekend and send-off as he calls his final three Red Sox games. I won’t be shocked when he fills in next year for a few games, so let’s say his final three games as “The Voice of the Red Sox.” I expect the Red Sox to throw Joe a solid retirement party this weekend. I also expect his friends - Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Rich Hill + many more - to join Joe and Will Flemming in the WEEI booth over the next three days. And I expect Joe to hop over to join Dave O’Brien and Lou Merloni in the NESN booth to say goodbye there, as well.

…See! I used to work in the WEEI Red Sox Radio booth. Look at that lettuce! Anyway, an update to last week’s intel on what post-Joe will look like on Red Sox Radio.

After talking with more people this week, I do not believe Will Flemming is a lock to be the next radio voice of the team. I believe the Sox will open the job to local and national candidates. I believe there’s a scenario where Dave O’Brien is the main TV voice. Then there’s a main radio voice. From there, former players (Merloni, Middlebooks, etc) move interchangeably between NESN and WEEI.

I believe NESN would like Merloni to do even more games. I believe Tyler Murray would have been strongly considered for the radio job had he not left for the Knicks. A very fluid story we’ll cover all off-season here.

…The word from across the street was that when it came to “Toucher and Rich,” the people who worked with the pair liked Fred and just sort of “put up” with Rich. Since their breakup, old T&R show characters Crash and Adolfo have returned to join Fred, not Rich. And this week, Scott Zolak set up Adolfo to mock Rich, as captured by Boston Media Critic on X.com. It’s clear the word was right in this case, just based on who is going where post-divorce.

…They are both very nice guys, but I can’t believe WEEI is still rolling with just Christian Arcand and Andy Hart in afternoon drive. I thought for sure another voice was coming or there was another shoe to drop. There are segments where it sounds like two complete strangers doing radio…which it is…since management just threw them together a month ago and said, “Figure it out, guys!”

---

On your Pennsylvania Derby Day photo dump…

Bill Mott…he’s just like us!

This is one of my favorite pictures from Pennsylvania Derby Day this past Saturday at Parx, taken by the esteemed Papa Beez on X.com. Oh, just Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott watching NYRA racing near the paddock at Parx with the rest of us degens. Love it.

I was lucky to be in the paddock handicapping the races for the day, with my friend Jessica Paquette calling the action from the booth. The results were okay, with my highlight pushing first-time starter Reelin N Dealin ($13.60 to place, $56.20 exacta) in Race 4.

The turf situation was…not good. The stakes action was, with Thorpedo Anna prevailing in the Cotillion and Sieze the Grey beating me (AGAIN!) in the Derby.

Racing has its (many) issues, but being on track for a big race day is still electric. It also served as a sad reminder of what we used to have in Boston with Suffolk Downs, a home track that I took for granted.

I never looked better closing out the day in the dark. Some other highlights.

---

On our Week 4 NFL Picks…

Week 3: 1-2
Season Record: 5-4

Our first losing week of the season. Was not helped when UConn product Tim Boyle got forced into action for the Dolphins. Doesn’t matter, we turn the page.

Our picks all season are sponsored by Sharp Hunter. Sharp Hunter shows you where the actual sharp money is going by aggregating the best picks from sharp bettors, giving you access to winning insights and trends. That does not mean every bet with a Sharp Score always wins, but I love knowing who the informed gamblers are betting on... even if I want to bet against them.

Sharp Hunter is offering a free 7-day trial to kick off the NFL Season with MutStack.com. They offer three-day, monthly, and annual subscriptions after that. Perfect for the football season - and the baseball playoff push and post-season. Get started for free right here ➡️➡️➡️ Sharp Hunter.

The Side
Bengals -4.5 at Panthers (-110, everywhere)
I’ll admit - I’m a little rattled by my 0-3 start ATS. I spent entirely too much time trying to find a pick I really wanted to play (besides Cowboys -5 on TNF…how did that work out? I hate kickers).

And so I end up on the 0-3 Bengals. Look, they’re just not as bad as their record. They had those two lost fumbles and TD drop in Week 1 vs the Pats. They ran into the Chiefs in Week 2 and then got caught flat-footed against Jayden Daniels in Week 3. They’ll be extra motivated to win against a Panthers team that is inflated in price thanks to the win over the hapless Raiders. The Panthers still ranked 30th in offensive DVOA to go along with their 21st ranking on defense. They’re also ranked 20th on special teams. Per Action, 8 teams last decade have been road favorites in Game 4 or later with 0 wins - those teams are 8-0 SU. Holding my nose and playing the 0-3 Bengals. Big Tee Higgins game.

The Total
Eagles at Bucs UNDER 44 (-110) (Total down to 43 as of Friday AM)
There are a lot of reasons I’m playing the under here. We’ll start with the Bucs, who operate at FTN’s slowest neutral point differential pace in the NFL. They’ve run no-huddle just 1.1% of the time - 4th lowest in the league. They want to play slow, even if they’re okay with letting Baker Mayfield throw it around. The Eagles come into the weekend without AJ Brown and it’s looking like they won’t have DeVonta Smith (concussion) or Lane Johnson. Already running the ball at the ninth-highest percentage in the NFL, the Eagles are even more likely to pound it here. There’s a chance we get burned late by big plays against a bad Eagles D, but there’s enough here in pace and injuries to play the under.

The Prop
Antonio Gibson O17.5 rush yards (-105, DK)
I did not expect to land on a backup running back OVER, but hear me out. Rhamondre Stevenson has fumbled in all three of the Patriots games this season - it would be a bigger deal if the team had not recovered two of them. Now they go on the road to face a 49ers defense that has not been great against the run (24th DVOA). Gibson has gone over this number in all three games for the Pats and if Stevenson gets benched thanks to a fourth fumble, he’ll see even more action. FWIW, I’d like his receiving yards number O6.5 or so if and when it’s posted. And I like his OVER 1.5 REC on DraftKings at plus money. Higgins and Gibson player props to the moon! 🚀🚀🚀

With that, have for sure said it all.

Thanks for reading. If you enjoyed it - or maybe you hated it and you want to keep up with how bad my picks are his season - I hope you’ll consider hitting the subscribe button.

Or maybe send this to a fellow degen who wants to fade my picks.

It’s a huge help in keeping this Friday Four-Pack free each week.

Good luck with all your bets.

Good weekend.