Kentucky Derby Prepping 3.15.25

We're headed to Virginia for the newest race on the Derby Trail

Day 1 of the National Horseplayers Championship is in the books.

A Chicago financial advisor, Dan Piazza, leads after the first day of the 26th NHC.

There in 70th place, just inside the cut-line of the Top 10% that would advance on to Day 3, (I think) is the second of two entries held by Elio Imborone, aka Mr. Ice of Barstool Sports fame.

His good friend and Barstool founder Dave Portony has given his advice for picks on that entry, at least based on his social media posts. Those posts saw a combined well over a million views on X.com Friday, giving the NHC their biggest social media boost…ever.

As I have written and discussed for two years in this newsletter, Dave, Elio, and Barstool are great for the growth of the sport—and you saw that front and center yesterday. I saw plenty in horse racing’s industrial media complex finally (and begrudgingly) admit that yesterday. Expect to hear it much more if The Syndicate makes it to the final table on Sunday. I wrote about this just yesterday.

Elio’s other entry sits in 651st place and will need a big move today to get into the Top 10%.

The boys and the rest of the NHC field will have plenty of chances on the tournament’s ‘movement day’ - they’ll have to bet 12 optional races and eight mandatory races. There will be chaos all day in Vegas.

A reminder that America’s Best Racing (ABR) will broadcast live this weekend from the NHC, with streaming video and handicapping coverage starting at 5 p.m. EST on Saturday. You can watch Dan Tordjman and Co. live on YouTube starting then.

With good racing across the country, it should be a great day to watch, wager, and cheer on the boys.

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I have been lucky to work with people in sports betting and sports entertainment that realize there is still a place for the horseplayer in 2025. Mike and his team at The Brook in Seabrook, NH have built out a great place to watch and wager on the races. You can find old Seabrook, Rockingham Park, and Suffolk Downs regulars there seven days a week firing away on the races. The raceboom has an old school feel to it, with all the newer amenities you’d want when playing the races.

The first Kentucky Derby Party I ever attended was in the ballroom at Mohegan Sun. Racebook Manager Zach Montoya would go out of his way to take care of his players and give them a great place to play - he’s a big reason why people have been betting horses at Mohegan Sun for 20-plus years….and refuse to go anywhere else in Connecticut. He’s the best.

Brad ‘Bomba’ Bryant took over the expanded sportsbook a few years ago, when sports betting became legal in CT. Before I met him, I assumed they would only cut back on racing and push sports. I was wrong.

Rather than cut back on racing, he’s expanded on it, tuning his sportsbook into the biggest racebook on the East Coast for Derby, Belmont, and Breeders’ Cup.

He and his team are expanding it again this year, creating a Three-Day Kentucky Derby/Kentucky Oaks Extravaganza.

It will start with a free Kentucky Derby handicapping seminar on Thursday night in the FanDuel Sportsbook. I’ll be there and on Derby Day once again with my guy, ‘The Big A’ Anthony Stabile. And this year, jockey Chantal Sutherland will join us to handicap the races all weekend and give racing fans her insights from years of riding at some of the biggest race tracks in the world.

It will once again be a great Kentucky Derby at Mohegan Sun, and I hope to see some of you there.

Leading up to Derby 151, Brad and Mohegan Sun are running a Winner’s Circle Promotion, where someone is going to win a Woodford Reserve 150th Kentucky Derby Baccarat Edition Luxury Bottle, valued at over $12,000.

You can qualify by betting just $50 at the track that’s holding the Derby Prep race each Saturday in the Mohegan Sun Sportsbook, now through April 12th. You can collect multiple entries each week.

It’s a great excuse for me to sneak down there in a couple of weeks. All the details are right here. It’s a cool promotion that, again, rewards horseplayers.

As more and more casinos and venues are pushing the horseplayer out, places like Mohegan Sun and The Brook have become the exception - they’re welcoming the horseplayer and giving them a great place to spend the day.

Those are the places I want to support with my wagering dollars.

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When we’re bad, we’ll write it. Same goes for when we’re good. And so far this Derby season, we’ve been pretty good.

12: 5-3-2
$72 in // $86.52 out
+$14.52 (based on a mythical $2 WPS bet on our top pick)
20% ROI

Hoping to keep it going on the newest race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Virginia Derby
1 1/8 miles on the dirt
Colonial Downs • New Kent, VA, USA
5:10 EST on FanDuel TV

It seems like CDI just…invented this new race to give one of their tracks a Derby Prep race? I mean, it’s their race and they can do whatever they want, but it doesn't sit well with me.

The race - formerly a turf race run in the summer - will now be run on the dirt and award 50-25-15-10-5 Derby points to the top 5 finishers. Let’s look at the field, including a major scratch plus two others.

#1 Calling Card (15-1) - This guy? Again? I bet him in the Gotham and he did no running - that was just two weeks ago. Now he’s back, going from the one-turn mile to the one-turn mile and an eighth? I’m a big Mike Maker fan and if I had to guess, this guy shows more speed here, but I can’t back him on top off that last effort.

#2 John Hancock (3-1) - He’s going to scratch out of this spot and in the Louisiana Derby.

#3 American Promise (12-1) - I’m pretty confident this guy is going to the lead here. His best races have come on the front end…the scratch of John Hancock leaves this race devoid of a real pace setter…and it’s D. Wayne Lukas. With the scratch inside, he’s a player for a Top 3 spot and might be a price. I just don’t know if he’s good enough.

#4 Omaha Omaha (10-1) - Has a habit of finding trouble at the start of races. But to his credit, he’s been able to make a run late even after those tardy beginnings. Don’t think he gets a great setup and some decent turf pedigree here. Peyton Manning fans might be betting here, but I’ll pass.

#5 Studlydoright (15-1) - His one fast race came in a five-horse field. The only horse to run back from that race ran in a restricted race next time, then was dusted in open company in his subsequent start. Looks too slow.

#6 Getaway Car (9/5) - Horse to beat by a wide margin. They can be involved early or sit right off at what looks to be a meddling pace. Has battled the best horses out west - including the current Derby favorite Journalism. I don’t see another one that good in this group. Irad gets aboard and Bob Baffert rarely ships out to random (sorry, Colonial) spots to lose. You’re not getting a price here but he fits this Derby Prep very well.

#7 Rapture (5-1) - SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox runs this one here and scratches the other. Was beaten by a Todd Pletcher horse I like on debut, then came back to crush next time out - ran pretty fast there, too. Horses have come back to run okay out of that spot. You saw in the Gotham how these Cox horses can magically show more speed from one start to another. Player.

#8 Authentic Gallop (10-1) - Another in here with just one Beyer speed figure that stands out as competitive. Trainer Tom Amoss just 10% over the last five years with three-year-olds going a route of ground on the dirt in any stakes race. Showed some fight late in his last race, to his credit.

#9 Render Judgement (12-1) - Did no running in the Risen Star so they’ll try blinkers here. Beat American Promise and has been right there with a pretty good horse in Built. Trainer McPeek 3 for 33 putting blinkers on for the first time, three-year-olds on the dirt. Nice 4F drill for this race. Bred to run all day and interesting at a price underneath.

#10 Georgia Magic (30-1) - Expensive purchase ran good on debut but has not been able to back that up. A few okay works coming in and some trouble in his last start, but would be a shocker in this spot.

I’m confident that with John Hancock's scratch, American Promise will go here. I’m less confident in his ability to see out the nine furlongs, even around just one turn. Authentic Gallop and Calling Card might show speed too.

It should allow Getaway Car to sit just off the speed - or if Irad sees they’re going slow - take it to them from the bell. He’s faster than these and has faced better. Rapture could get the same trip and with improvement off his last race, should be right there.

I wish I had a goofier opinion, but Baffert found a good spot to get this one enough points to get into the Derby. I’ll use Render Judgement as my price play and in any vertical wagers.

Scratch Update - Maybe Calling Card coming out will benefit American Promise…look when I fade a D. Wayne speed horse I usually lose. IF it seems like speed is good today at Colonial, he could be an upgrade. We’ll see later today.

6-7-9-3

Good luck with your bets Saturday and safe trips for all. Let me know who you’re betting in the comments.