Saratoga Stack 8.3.24

It's Whitney Day! Full-card selections and other racing thoughts

We had hoped to see a “star” emerge last Saturday in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy (Presented by our friends at Mohegan Sun). Instead, we saw one reemerge.

Fierceness has not raced since his pace-chasing effort in the Kentucky Debry. I picked Fierceness in that race (a lot of people did) because he seemed like the one horse in this group that might be special. He flashed brilliance in the BC Juvenile last year and the Florida Derby this spring.

On Saturday that talent flashed again. Even while drifting out a bit in the lane, John Velazquez was able to refocus the 9/5 second choice and get him to power home a winner, getting a strong 103 Beyer in the process.

And it seemed to do it pretty easy. You can argue that Sierre Leone (102 Beyer) might appreciate the extra eighth of the mile of the Travers, but I’m getting a little tired of that one’s inability to get home a winner, even with a good set-up.

It sounds like Fierceness is pointed to the Travers, with Sierra Leone, Dornoch, and Thorpedo Anna to make up what looks like a terrific running of the race if it stays together.

Another move forward there can make Fierceness the star racing is looking forward heading into the second half of the 2024 season.

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As you can see above, today’s Whitney Day Saratoga Stack is presented by my friends at The Brook Casino in Seabrook, NH.

One of the more shortsighted things I did when it came to New England racing was opting to play the races at home vs. going to Suffolk Downs and/or Rockingham Park when they were still running. I missed out on good live racing right in my backyard as well as the chance to meet some real racetrack characters.

Thankfully, The Brook has built out an awesome space for horseplayers.

I ended up going there early to watch and play the Late Pick 5 from Saratoga before the Ray Bourque Event last Saturday. A couple of things stood out….

• The new screen. It’s massive. Great for racing because you can put Saratoga on there and then the rest of the Saturday sports action on other smaller screens around it. A dozen tracks and games were going on and all of them were easy to find and watch. Excellent viewing from everywhere.

• For me, when I’m focused on the racing and there by myself, having my own private carrel where I can handicap and bet and have control over the screen in front of me…that’s preferred. The Brook has plenty of those. You can reserve a seat weekend seat right here. Just pick your day. Those carrels are my seat of choice, solo.

  

• If you’re going with a group, reserve one of the couch areas. Right in the middle of the room, food and drink service right at your seats. Nice spot.

• They were not in last week, but The Brook is adding “Captains Chairs” in the middle of the room.

• It was a little too hot and humid to fully enjoy Saturday, but The Deck outside off the sportsbook will be a great spot for football and fall racing.

• If you sign up with their free rewards program, they offer rebates for players, with bonus rebates at Saratoga and Del Mar this summer.

But getting back to missing out on the energy of a live race track. What I loved playing Saratoga there Saturday were the tables full of diehard horseplayers firing away with me.

Walking by one of their tables on the way to get the first of multiple free refills of Diet Pepsi, a race had just gone final at Saratoga. Seconds later one of the diehards says to the table, “Okay who do we like in the next?”

And the place got loud when the horses got to the top of the stretch as fans cheered home their picks. That’s what you’re missing yelling at your laptop or TV by yourself at home.

I know many people reading this will go to The Brook for the sportsbook and I get it. But if you’re a racing fan, from one player to another, they've has built an excellent space for us in Seabrook. Look forward to getting back there later this summer.

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The Grade I Whitney Stakes
1 1/8 MILES
5:42PM EST

A stat before we start the day: races on the main track going a mile and longer so far this meet - Post Positions 7 and out are a combined 4 for 55 (7%). Of the 37 races run, 20!!! have been won by horses in the 1,2, or 3 post. 54%!

The inside and speed have been good.

That sets the stage for National Treasure to continue his accent to the top of the older horse division. He’s inside, he’s speed and he’s training well. Does Arthur’s Ride really want to run with this one…can he run with this one early? He’ll have to break and he still may cost himself his best chance by battling National Treasure.

If he does lose, I think First Mission is the best choice to upset. Trainer Brad Cox says they’ll try and come from off the pace today. He has a fast race on a wet track. Don’t love him but he’s my best upset idea.

I wish Disarm was training better coming in- he can save ground like he did in the Travers and get a piece. Warrior Johnny working big coming in but might be a notch below. Crupi ran into Next last time and is third off the layoff.

We’ll see of National Treasure lives up to the hype later today.

3-5-2-4

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A note on today’s picks… my ‘top’ plays for whatever that’s supposed to mean, noted by ⭐⭐⭐ next to the race.

A reminder on days like this - watch the board when it comes to the 2 YO races - and there are some good ones today. And the track is sloppy as of this writing so keep an eye on how the track is playing. It’s just another variable you have to factor in. Good luck.

UPDATE - We are now off the turf for the entire card and two races have been canceled. A brutal break for NYRA on one of their biggest days of the year. Races 7 and 10 cancelled. Race OFF, being run at a mile out of the Wilson Chute.

Race 1
OFF THE TURF. Nothing exciting here. Assertiveness or Reach the Rose will likely win. Note Assertiveness has had trouble breaking in his works. We’ll see if that’s a factor today.

8-4

Race 2
Guessing game here and I’ll take a small shot with Friend of the Devil. Working well and trainer Carlos Martin has had okay success with 2 YO. Probability and The Toner both taking money in the doubles as of 10 AM Saturday.

8-3-4

Race 3
Scratches really help Deck of Cards here. Can wire this group. Movie Moxie had a rough start in the last and has worked well since. It’s one of those two for me and I’ll put the bigger ML price on top.

8-1

Race 4
Elliptic broke her maiden going a mile two back. Last time was steadied into that first turn. Steady works since and had the early speed to get good position.

7-12-3

Race 5 ⭐⭐⭐
I have to lose a few bucks on I Got Game. Ran into a good horse on debut and had a terrible trip last time. There might be some real talent in here but as a trip handicapper, I have to bet this one. Watch the board.

8-7-3-5

Race 6 ^⭐⭐⭐
Again, watch the board and the money. I’ll reach a price with El Prestigio. Classic Steve Asmussen - second-time starter, very good work two back, then a maintenance work in last. Won with one like this last Saturday. Praetor looks live.

5-4-2

Race 7
I’ll always side with the European turf horses in races like this. Diego Velazquez and Legend of Time for me. There’s a world where White Paomino wires this group.

4-3-8

Race 8
Ways and Means way the horse to beat. She runs her race, she wins. Great to see Brightwork back in here and hope she comes back running. My exacta horse is Denim and Pearls - I thought she was awesome in the Beaumont two back. Has a win at 7F and was working with Wet Paint last time.

4-2-6

Race 9
More Than Looks was awesome last yeat and did not disgrace himself in the BC Mile. And of those last three races last yeat and he wins this today. Irish Aces will be an ‘A’ on my Late Pick 5 tickets - third off the layoff and set for a good one. Kubrick gets a wet turf, will be a good price but might be a cut below.

9-4-1

NOW OFF THE TURF AT A MILE

Film Star now looks to have this group over a barrel. Swiftsure might be able to clear and take them a long way from the inside. Pioneering Spirit has some okay dirt races.

10-3-7

Race 10-
Cogburn is the best and faster turf sprinter in the country. He likes wet turf. If he breaks, he wins. Horses I’ll use underneath and as ‘Cs” in the Pick 5: Mischief Magic will like the going and has races that put him in the mix…Sousa Summer might be able to sit right off Cogburn all the way around…Thin White Duke will be coming late an I always root for Steve Crist’s horse.

6/1-9-11

Race 11
SEE ABOVE

Race 12
Striker Has Dial was second to Ways and Means two back, has early speed and has a win on a wet track. St. Benedicts Prep just missed and has to be considered a contender. Audacious has been working with talented Agate Road and could win. So could Zadorsky or Miss Enchanted…tough race!

2-7-5

Race 13
MTO Drake’s Passage lays over this group and is the most likely winner of the day from where I’m sitting in my basement.

15-5-14

15-5 exacta ⭐⭐⭐

Brutal break for NYRA with the turf. Good luck if you’re playing.