Friday Four-Pack 11.1.24

Bill Belichick enjoys Halloween. Rooting for the Pats to lose. A very important horse race. Media notes and NFL Week 9 picks!

Hope you had a great Halloween. Looks like Bill Belichick certainly did.

Yes, indeed. That’s the greatest NFL coach of our lifetime dressed as a fisherman reeling in his 24-year-old girlfriend Jordon who appears to be dressed as a mermaid.

I assume that’s a costume as I don’t believe she’s an actual mermaid. We are working to confirm that here at MutStack.com

Classic ‘guys’ costume for Belichick. No doubt he already had all that gear and just put it on. Didn’t have to go shopping for any of it. That’s Guys Halloween 101 - if you can make your own costume with shit you already have, you do it.

As for the blossoming Belichick romance...yeah, I don’t get it. He’ll be 73 in May and by all indications, headed back to an NFL sideline. She just turned 24. You’ll tell me “Well Mut, love is love” and that crap…but it’s weird. Sorry.

Do you think he happily agreed to this photo? Does he know what Instagram is yet? Does his friends have a text thread and are sharing this photo, asking “WTF???” We need answers.

Meanwhile, I’m rooting for his old team to lose games. The cheapness of the Red Sox is on display for all to see. And there’s a big horse race this weekend that you should watch, even if you don’t plan on betting.

That’s all ahead on today’s Four-Pack.

---

Join Mut Live at Mohegan Sun!

Get real-time analysis and expert predictions from Mut, Eytan Shander, and special guests live from the Mohegan Sun FanDuel Sportsbook.

Be there in-person, stream it on the OddsShopper YouTube page, or listen on your favorite podcast app. ⬇️⬇️⬇️

---

On rooting for the Patriots to lose…

In last week’s Four-Pack, I wrote about the Netflix documentary on the 2004 Red Sox, The Comeback. It’s great. You should watch it. And Nomar should have agreed to be interviewed for it.

When your team is in the playoffs, like that 2004 Red Sox team was, being a fan is pretty straightforward: you live and die with every play and are rooting 100% for your team to win. It’s stressful and can take years off your life, but you understand the assignment.

But what if your team is not in the playoffs? What if they have no hopes of being a playoff team in that respective season? What if they would greatly benefit from having the highest draft pick possible to either trade or use to select one of the most talented players in the following year’s draft?

This leads us to the 2024 New England Patriots - a team I want to see lose as many games as possible.

Does that make me a bad fan?

This came up last week in the Mutnansky Household, as the Pats were driving for an eventual game-winning touchdown against the Jets. There were four of us watching the game - myself, my two sons, and my dad (shoutout Viking). Three people celebrated when Rhamondre Stevenson punched it in from about a yard out.

Only one person in the room - your humble newsletter author - shouted “He’s short, he’s short! Check the replay he didn’t get it!”

The replay confirmed the call on the field. The Pats would win. And I was annoyed.

Am I in the minority here or is this the feeling among most Patriots fans?

Like, I want Drake Maye to be great. And maybe his being great leads the team to win more games, like Drew Bledsoe’s strong finish in his rookie season (8 TDS/2 INT) helped the Patriots win their final four games in 1993. But that team still ended up with a Top 4 pick the following season (Willie McGinest). Having to watch Jacoby Brissett cost the team potential draft pick position Sunday against the Jets was annoying.

At the core, I don’t think the team winning close games or building character matters nearly as much as whether or not Drake Maye is just good vs. great. There’ll be so much turnover with this team and coaching staff in the offseason that I can’t buy into the idea that wins this season help build something for the future.

4-13 but Maye is GREAT > 8-9 and Maye is just good. Or not good. Talent > number of wins. I much prefer that first scenario.

So yeah, I’m actively rooting for the team to lose games. Especially games where Drake Maye is not involved. Are you with me?

Comments open below to remind me I don’t know sports and how important these wins are for Jerod Mayo and the Patriots.

---

On your sports media and sports betting notebook…

🎥 Video courtesy of Boston Radio Watch

➡️ Got a bunch of texts about this post and video of Mike Felger and Jim Murray on the Felger and Mazz “Off-Air Show.” I admittedly have no clue what Jim is referring to here. One radio insider I contacted about it replied “Don’t know what he (Jim) is referring to in the clip…Obviously the industry has been expecting major layoffs with many of the major radio corps for months now…Audacy, IHeart and maybe Beasley but I have not heard concrete news…” Another radio veteran pointed out that with the holidays coming, it would not be a surprise if we see layoffs soon.

These layoffs, many times, happen at the corporate level, the sales level, or with “behind the glass” talent. As far as Boston goes, we’ll see if layoffs at iHeart (The Rich Shertenlieb Show, Kiss 108), Audacy (WEEI), or Beasley (98.5 The Sports Hub) impact the current on-air staff or shows. Given the calendar, it could happen very quickly.

➡️ You’re seeing some stations cut costs already. It’s a small thing, I get it, but Sports Radio WEEI playing the pre-taped “Boomer and Valenti” podcast at 6 PM on Friday night into Boston College football is pretty surprising for a legacy sports station. The same goes for WEEI’s lack of live programming until 9 AM on most Saturday mornings this fall. The big Audacy sports stations nationwide are live by 7 or 8 AM. Or live 24-7. Not WEEI. By comparison, The Sports Hub goes live every Saturday at 7 AM.

➡️ He is who he is. 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Fred Toucher continues to take shots at his former radio partner Rich Shertenlieb and this week admitted on the air he was taking shots. Petty shots. I expect them to continue. And just like that Friday morning, another shot at Rich from Fred.

➡️ Shertenlieb’s show played at least three consecutive songs on their show Friday morning, a sign more music could be coming to what was launched as a talk show in the spring. It’s the first time I’ve heard a large block of music on the struggling morning show.

➡️ This week’s Sportsbook Live from Mohegan Sun featured a special guest degen Jets fan and some more producing on the fly. Plenty of bets for you to tail or trash, plus some good advice from Mohegan Sun FanDuel Sportsbook General Manager Brad Bryant. And I’m dressed in full Halloween costume. You can watch it here on YouTube.

Next week’s show (November 7) will be a grand finale of sorts, with a chance to win a table for four in the sportsbook for any NFL Sunday the rest of the season, including Super Bowl Sunday. I expect a good crowd and if you’ve been thinking about coming over to watch the show and make fun of me in the best sportsbook in New England, next Thursday provides some added incentive to join us from 6-7 PM.

➡️ They benefitted from two big markets being involved, but the World Series averaging 15.8 million viewers per game is a sign baseball might not be dead and buried. That’s a 74% increase from last year and the best numbers since 2017.

➡️ Pretty big news from ESPN Friday as they announced you can now track all your ESPN Bet action on the ESPN app and ESPN.com. Professional sports and the networks (like ESPN) who broadcast those sports have made their own bet that you’ll be more invested in their product if you’re wagering on the games, so something like this was destined to happen…and will happen more going forward.

---

On this graphic RE: your Boston Red Sox…

Sports website The Score compiled their own “Scooge Index,” this week. It aimed to show what percentage of revenue MLB teams spend on their team’s payroll.

Your Boston Red Sox, with revenue of almost $560 million, check in as the fifth cheapest team in Major League Baseball, behind just the Rays, A’s, Tigers, and Reds. They spent just 40% of their revenue on payroll.

After the lackluster season they just had and with the passion for the team locally at what feels like an all-time low, if this doesn’t shame the team into spending, nothing ever will. It’s worth noting that all three of the top payroll teams in 2024 found themselves in MLB’s Final Four.

There is no excuse for the team not to spend and be active this offseason: they’ve said they will be. Fans need to hold them accountable, especially after seeing their team’s cheapness on display in one easy-to-read graphic.

---

---

On a wildly interesting Breeders’ Cup Classic…

Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic comes up at Race 8 as part of the 12-race card that features nine Grade I races. It is one of the most important races run all year anywhere on the planet.

And whether you bet on horses or not, you should make the time to watch the race on NBC at around 5:41 EST. Let me explain.

The morning line favorite for the race, City of Troy, is coming over from Europe to run in his race. His trainer says he’s the best horse he’s ever trained he’s the 5/2 favorite on the morning line.

He’s also never run a race on dirt before, which is the surface they’ll run on in the Classic.

If he wins, it won’t be a huge betting upset based on the short morning line odds, but it will certainly change the trajectory of racing to some extent. The United States and Japan are considered to have the best dirt horses in the world. If City of Troy comes in and wins this huge race off all grass form and a workout over synthetic, it will be a big deal both here and in Europe.

He’s facing the best dirt horses in the world on a surface he’s never run over competitively and he’s the early favorite to win. Even without a betting interest, it’s a great story: a great sports story.

Meanwhile, if you’re betting on the race, you sure as hell better be watching and wagering. Because if you’re like me and believe there is just no way this horse - again off all turf form and turf breeding and making his career debut on dirt - can win this race and will be a short price, then you have one of best betting opportunities of the year.

That’s where I land. Neat story, maybe he’s a great horse…but if he wins I lose. And if he’s getting bet, other horses with better chances to win will offer us better prices and a chance to score.

Me? I like a horse from Japan to win the race. There’s also a horse 20-1 on the morning line that could hit the board.

I talked about the Classic and all nine Breeders’s Cup Saturday races with friends Jessica Paquette and Dick Jerardi on a special MutStack Podcast.

I’ll go into further detail in a special Saturday newsletter highlighting some of my best ideas on what should be a day filled with chances to make money. If you’re subscribed, you’ll get that emailed directly to you on Saturday morning.

---

On our Week 9 NFL Picks…Presented by Sharp Hunter

Week 7: 1-2 🔥💰✅🔥💰✅🔥💰✅

Season Record: 13-11 (54.1%)

No Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase still could not get 80 yards. Pain.

With the NBA season underway and NFL and college football in full swing, right now is a great time to take advantage of the Sharp Hunter free 7-day trial.

Sharp Hunter shows you where the actual sharp money is going by aggregating the best picks from sharp bettors, giving you access to winning insights and trends. That does not mean every bet with a Sharp Score always wins, but I love knowing who the informed gamblers are betting on... even if I want to bet against them.

They offer three-day, monthly, and annual subscriptions after that. Get started for free right here ➡️➡️➡️ Sharp Hunter.

The Side
Vikings -5 vs. Colts (-110, DK)

🏈 Let’s calm down with the Joe Flacco LoveFest. He’s an upgrade over Anthony Richardson but he’s still Joe Flacco. Maybe he was once elite, but not in 2024. He catches what might be an elite Minnesota defense, DVOA’s #1 ranked unit. The one game he threw for over 200 yards this season came against the Jags and their 32nd-ranked pass defense.

The Vikings bolstered their offensive line this week by trading for Cam Robinson. The Colts D has been cooked by opposing tight ends and the Vikings expect to get T.J. Hockenson back this week.

Minnesota coming off a bit of a break here and per Action Network, teams at home off extended rest in a night game, when the opponent is on normal rest or less, are 22-9 SU and 18-12-1 ATS since 2019.

This line should be 7. It’s 5. I’ll play the Vikings here. Should note the sharps at Sharp Hunter like the Vikings here, too.

Some books have already moved to -5.5, so get the -5 while you can.

The Total
Eagles vs. Jags UNDER 45.5 (-104, FanDuel)

🏈 I’ll admit, this is a bit riskier than usual for my total plays. The Jags defense might just be terrible and there is certainly some blowout potential here. But we have some things working in our favor.

The Jags’ offense is decimated by injuries at the WR position and they could stall out completely here. The Jaguars’ run defense is actually okay (11th DVOA) and that could help run the clock if the Eagles attack on the ground. When they’ve led by 8+ points this season, Philadelphia has run the ball almost 60% of the time. On the season, they run the ball fourth-most in the NFL.

For some reason, the Eagles stink on offense early - Action Network has them scoreless in the first quarter dating back to last season (9x straight games). They have slowed down their pace over the last month, running much more and getting off fewer offensive plays.

This reeks of 27-13. It looks like an ugly game. That’s good for an under.

The Prop
Sam Darnold OVER 250 passing yards (-106, FanDuel, alt-line)

🏈 FanDuel is below market on Darnold, but I still like this alt-line at less juice. The Colts are a pass-funnel defense - 13th vs. the run and as mentioned above 26th vs. the pass. Minnesota will keep throwing - third-highest pass rate in the NFL in neutral pace situations per FTN. Hockenson back, OL shored up, vs a poor pass defense. Vikings ML, Darnold OVER 250, and a Hockenson ATTD SGP = +566 on FanDuel before any boosts…Responsibly.

We have for sure said it all.

Back tomorrow for a special Breeders’ Cup Final Thoughts - picks and betting ideas for all nine BC races on Saturday at Del Mar.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend. And thanks for reading.

Good weekend.